Everything was in England’s hands on Friday night in Mallorca, as they faced Spain with automatic qualification for the 2027 Women’s World Cup at stake. All they needed was to avoid defeat, and the Lionesses would have booked their tickets to Brazil, leaving one of their main rivals to fight through the play-offs. But in a shocking turn of events, England fell 4-0 — their heaviest defeat under Sarina Wiegman — missing a golden opportunity in dramatic fashion.

“I expected a very close game,” said Wiegman afterwards — and given the history between these two sides, she was justified in that belief. Only once before had a match between England and Spain been decided by more than a single goal, and that was back in 2017. Their encounters are usually tight, balanced contests decided by fine details.

That pattern held early on Friday, but once Patri Guijarro broke the deadlock in the 19th minute, England suddenly fell apart in uncharacteristic style. “There was a difference tonight because we were disappointing,” Wiegman admitted.

The result not only marked the most emphatic loss of Wiegman’s tenure — and England’s worst since 2009 — but also cost them top spot in the group, which offers only one automatic place at the 2027 Women’s World Cup.

Spain now hold the advantage and can seal qualification with a win over Iceland on Tuesday — a result widely expected. England, on the other hand, will need a favour from the Icelandic side to stand any chance of avoiding the play-offs, something that seems highly improbable.

So, what does this mean for England’s road to Brazil? And how big a setback is this in their pursuit of glory next summer?

Qualification still likely

First and foremost, even if England end up in the play-offs, it would be a huge surprise if they failed to make it to the tournament in Brazil.

The play-offs consist of two rounds, both played over two legs, which reduces the risk of a single upset derailing their campaign. Wiegman’s side will be one of the strongest in the draw, starting against a League C team and then facing either a fourth-placed League A side or a League B team in the second round.

In essence, Friday’s defeat doesn’t drastically threaten England’s chances of reaching the World Cup; it simply prolongs their journey and makes it a bit more complicated.

Limited learning opportunities

The delay, however, is far from ideal. Automatic qualification would have allowed the Lionesses to schedule top-level friendlies during the final two international windows of the year.

Before the 2023 tournament — where they reached their first-ever World Cup final — England tested themselves against elite opposition such as the United States, Japan, South Korea and Australia, and even played the Finalissima against Brazil. Those matches gave them invaluable experience against a variety of styles beyond Europe.

This time, that kind of preparation will have to wait until the New Year. Instead, England will now face sides they are familiar with or expected to beat comfortably. As a result, meaningful learning opportunities between now and year-end are limited.

Different kind of tests ahead

That’s particularly frustrating for Wiegman, who is clearly determined to understand what went wrong against Spain. “What I’m trying to do now is think — what caused this?” she reflected. “We have to see what went really wrong.”

While the coaching staff can review the match footage, the best way to evaluate their shortcomings would have been through immediate tests against elite opponents. The play-offs won’t offer that. England will likely dominate possession in those games, dealing with counter-attacking sides rather than teams that can pin them back, as Spain did.

That means the defensive issues exposed in Mallorca won’t be examined under similar pressure until later next year.

Experimentation restricted

The play-offs themselves will still be crucial, competitive fixtures, leaving Wiegman with little room to experiment or rotate unless England establish a comfortable first-leg lead.

This squad does boast plenty of experience, with many players from the Euro 2022-winning team. But it also includes several younger faces still finding their feet internationally. In the friendly matches at the end of 2025, for example, players like Lucia Kendall and Taylor Hinds were able to make their mark. Such opportunities may be scarce now, given the must-win nature of the upcoming ties.

Assuming England secure qualification, next year’s friendlies will likely focus more on tactical refinement ahead of the World Cup rather than experimentation. There might be a few chances to test new options early on, but those will diminish as the tournament approaches.

Silver linings

Despite the setback, not everything is negative. The heavy defeat in Mallorca could serve as a wake-up call that strengthens the team in the long run. As Lauren Hemp noted on Monday, “I think in games like that, you probably learn the most.” And indeed, England rarely face games of that intensity.

Spain have dominated spells in previous meetings too, but their lack of clinical finishing often spared England. This time, their superiority was decisive — exposing flaws that might otherwise have remained hidden beneath a string of positive results.

The play-offs themselves could also prove beneficial. England seldom play away fixtures — most friendlies take place on home soil — and their last non-neutral away friendly was in April 2021. Competing in potentially two away legs could help them adapt to less familiar environments, something they will certainly encounter in Brazil.

Moreover, while League C opposition shouldn’t trouble them, the second-round games could bring stronger challenges — which, if handled well, can only make them sharper.

Facing a disadvantage

As England gear up for their play-off campaign, Spain — the reigning world champions — will be free to schedule high-profile friendlies against top-tier international teams, fine-tuning themselves against diverse opponents ahead of next summer.

Japan, who qualified by winning the Asian Cup in March, will do the same, as will Germany, who sealed their group with a win over Norway, and likely France, poised to top Group A2. Meanwhile, the United States have already been playing a mix of Japan, Colombia, Brazil and the Netherlands since their 2024 Olympic triumph.

By comparison, England are at a disadvantage. They will need to make the most of their situation — using the play-offs to rebuild momentum and confidence — before turning attention to fine-tuning their preparations once qualification is in hand.

For now, focus shifts to Tuesday’s match against Ukraine, where the Lionesses must respond to Friday’s defeat. Their chance of automatic qualification remains slim, but the priority is clear: regain composure, approach the play-offs in top form, and prove that despite this setback, England remain genuine contenders for the 2027 Women’s World Cup.