There was a decline in the prices of crude oil in the international market for the second consecutive month. According to a Reuters report, crude oil prices in June and the second quarter have fallen the most since the Covid period in 2020. Investors are keeping an eye on possible talks between the US and Iran in Doha amid the four-month-long war, while a temporary ceasefire is also in force. Brent futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $72.92 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.25, or 1.8%, to $69.50 a barrel.
Brent futures for August delivery expired on Tuesday and were replaced by the September contract, which is trading at about $73.31 a barrel. Both crude benchmarks were around the same levels where they were trading on February 27 – the day before the US-Israeli war on Iran began – when Brent closed at $72.48 per barrel and WTI at $67.02.
"I wouldn't say the market has removed the risk premium, but stranded ships have become available before the number of ships leaving the Gulf has increased, creating a temporary wave of new supply," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Morgan Stanley said that it now estimates that there will be a surplus (excess supply) of 4.8 million barrels per day in the global oil market in 2027. On Tuesday, a Qatari official said that the top US envoy who arrived in Doha will not hold any high-level meeting with Iran.
This has cast doubt on the progress of efforts to permanently stop the Iran war and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, about 20 percent of the world's oil supply passed through this strait. Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari informed in a media briefing that this week there will be technical talks on issues like regional security, which can later be taken to the senior level. .
The shootings over the weekend came before US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha on Tuesday, testing the June 17 interim agreement between the US and Iran. Both sides were given 60 days to negotiate a permanent ceasefire and resolve difficult issues related to the future.
There was no significant change in prices on Tuesday, keeping both crude benchmarks in technically 'oversold' territory.; Brent has been in this situation for 13 consecutive days and WTI for 11 consecutive days. In the month of June, Brent fell by about 21 percent, whereas in May it had fallen by about 19 percent. This was its biggest monthly decline after a record 55 percent decline in March 2020 due to a huge drop in demand due to Covid.
After a huge gain of 94 per cent in the first quarter, Brent fell by almost 38 per cent in the second quarter. This was its biggest quarterly decline after a record 66 per cent decline in the first quarter of 2020. The 94% gain in the last quarter was the highest since the record 142% gain in futures in the third quarter of 1990.
Supplies of the five grades of North Sea crude oil that form the basis of the 'Dated Brent' benchmark in August will not include Brent crude for the first time at least until 2021. In the US, monthly data from the Energy Information Administration released on Tuesday showed that crude oil production rose to a monthly record of 13.93 million barrels per day in April. Producers had increased production when oil prices increased due to the Iran war.
The oil market is awaiting the weekly storage report from the American Petroleum Institute (a trade group) on Tuesday and the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Analysts estimate that during the week ending June 26, energy companies removed 4.5 million barrels of crude oil from storage.
If this estimate turns out to be correct, it will be the first time that energy companies have taken out crude oil from storage for 10 consecutive weeks. This will equal the record made in January 2018. This can be compared with an increase of 3.8 million barrels in the same week last year and an average decrease of 5.5 million barrels over the last five years (2021 to 2025).
There has been no change in the prices of petrol and diesel in India for 37 days. The last increase in the prices of petrol and diesel was seen on May 25. According to experts, the way crude oil prices are falling, it is estimated that the freeze button will remain pressed on the prices of petrol and diesel. The price of petrol and diesel in Delhi is Rs 102.12 and Rs 95.20 per liter respectively.
The price of petrol in Kolkata is Rs 113.51 and the price of diesel is Rs 99.82 per liter. In Mumbai, the prices of petrol and diesel are seen at Rs 111.21 and Rs 97.83 per liter respectively. Whereas in Chennai the price of petrol has come to Rs 107.77 and diesel to Rs 99.55 per liter. However, in the month of May, there was an increase of 7 to 8 percent in fuel prices.
