New Delhi, October 5 The political scenario in Haryana appears to be heading towards a major change, with Congress emerging as the frontrunner according to six exit polls conducted for the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections. The exit polls indicate that the Congress party is set to form the next government, potentially securing a significant majority in the 90-member Haryana Legislative Assembly. In contrast, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to experience a sharp decline in its seat count, with estimates suggesting that it could end up with as few as 18 to 32 seats.

The exit polls suggest that Congress, under its leadership, has made substantial gains across various regions of Haryana, capitalizing on the public’s dissatisfaction with the BJP’s governance in the state. According to these surveys, Congress could capture anywhere between 50 to 60 seats, comfortably surpassing the halfway mark of 46 needed to form a government.

Political experts attribute Congress’s resurgence to its focus on addressing farmers’ concerns, employment issues, and rural development. The party’s campaign, which emphasized pro-people policies, particularly in the aftermath of the farmer protests, seems to have resonated with a large section of voters.

In stark contrast, the BJP, which came to power in Haryana in 2019, appears to be facing a tough battle this time. The exit polls predict a dramatic fall for the party, with projections showing it securing only 18 to 32 seats. This would represent a significant drop from the 2019 elections, when the BJP won 40 seats and formed a government with the support of the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP).

Political analysts believe that a combination of factors has led to this decline, including public discontent over handling key issues such as inflation, unemployment, and dissatisfaction with the state’s economic condition. The BJP’s perceived failure to address these issues adequately during its tenure seems to have cost it crucial support, particularly in rural areas.

The exit polls also highlight a diminished role for the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which previously played a kingmaker role in Haryana politics. The JJP, led by Deputy Chief Minister Dushyant Chautala, is expected to win only 5 to 7 seats, down from its previous tally of 10 seats in 2019. This decline could further weaken the BJP’s position, as the party relied on JJP’s support to form the government last time.

Independent candidates, who traditionally have an impact in Haryana politics, are expected to win 2 to 4 seats, which could make them crucial in any post-election alliance negotiations.

One of the most significant factors contributing to Congress’s projected victory is the shift in voter sentiment, particularly among the farming community and rural voters. The Congress party’s stance during the farmer protests against the now-repealed farm laws earned it considerable goodwill among Haryana’s agricultural population, which plays a critical role in the state’s elections. Additionally, Congress’s promises to create more jobs, focus on public welfare, and tackle inflation seem to have gained traction.

Although exit polls provide an indication of the voting trends, the actual election results, which will be declared on October 8, will confirm whether Congress has indeed succeeded in toppling the BJP government in Haryana. If the exit polls prove accurate, it would mark a significant political shift in the state and could have broader implications for national politics, especially as the 2024 general elections approach.

Both Congress and the BJP are closely watching the unfolding situation, with leaders from both parties expressing optimism despite the exit poll predictions. Congress leaders have hinted at confidence in forming the next government, while BJP leaders remain hopeful for a better-than-expected performance on the day of the results.