Tensions between India and Pakistan have increased after the April 22 Pahalgam incident. In a fourth NOTAM (Notice to Airmen), Islamabad announced that surface-to-surface ballistic missiles will be fired.

“Dangerous escalation” and “reckless act of provocation” are the terms used by Indian security authorities to characterize the move in the already strained bilateral relations. The terror assault in Baisaran, which killed 26 people, is the setting for this.

New Delhi has responded diplomatically to the incident by blocking the Attari border, reducing staff at the Pakistani High Commission, and suspending visas for Pakistani citizens. At the same time, cross-border shooting and shelling over the international boundary and the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir has grown commonplace.

No Reaction to the Fourth Missile Warning However, Pakistan is scheduled to test-fire a surface-to-surface ballistic missile this week, according to Indian security services. Indian authorities, according to sources who spoke to ANI, described the statement as a “reckless act of provocation and a dangerous escalation in its hostile campaign against India.”

In less than two weeks, the test would be the fourth if it were to occur. No ballistic missile launching was seen during the first NOTAM, which was sent out on the evening of April 23 with less than a day’s notice for test firing.

Notifications of fire by Pakistani Naval ships off the coast of Karachi were sent out shortly after, on April 26 and 27, but no firing exercises were held. Following two unsuccessful efforts, Pakistan made a third attempt to carry out firings in India’s Exclusive Economic Zone between April 30 and May 2, however this time no firings were carried out.

Comparing the Missile Defense Systems of India and Pakistan

While both nations have a credible deterrent posture, India has a strategic and technical edge in missile defense and monitoring. The following are the two nuclear-armed neighbors’ relative advantages:

India’s Capabilities for Missile Defense:

• India’s two-tiered Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system is capable of intercepting both exo-atmospheric and endo-atmospheric threats.

• India’s multi-layered defense system is anchored by Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) and Advanced Air Defence (AAD) interceptors.
• S-400 Triumf: India has strengthened its capabilities to repel aerial threats at long range by acquiring Russia’s cutting-edge S-400 missile defense system.

• BrahMos and Agni series: India’s long-range Agni ballistic missiles and BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles serve as its strategic deterrent.

Pakistan’s Air Defense and Missile Arsenal:
Pakistan relies on the Hatf and Shaheen missiles, which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

• Nasr (TNW): Pakistan’s response to India’s Cold Start doctrine is said to be tactical nuclear-capable Nasr missiles.

• Air Defense Systems: The Chinese LY-80 (HQ-16) serves as the mainstay of Pakistan’s anti-aircraft defenses, which are considered to be quite basic.

Indo-Pak ties are at an uneasy juncture due to the increasing rhetoric, missile threats, and continuous border conflicts. An unintentional assault might turn into a full-scale conflict.

The subcontinent’s events are being carefully monitored by the UN, the international community, and key strategic allies.