On the face of it, the driver market should be a lot slower this year than it was in 2024. Mostly because can't join twice - it was his dramatic decision to switch from that started last season's series of particularly chaotic events.

This year, more than half the grid have contracts that run into 2026 and beyond and, for the most part, the top teams have their line-ups sorted. Or do they? Because there's another superstar on the grid who seems to have become a little restless and could yet kick off more madness.

has a contract with , the team with which he has won the last four drivers' titles in a row, until 2028. Sounds pretty locked in, right? Well, with the amount of money top F1 drivers and teams have these days, and the often pre-baked release clauses in those deals, contracts aren't always as air-tight as they might appear to be from the outside.

In , and manager, Raymond Vermeulen, Verstappen has two tough allies in his corner who will be looking out for his best interest and who, crucially, have the complete trust of the four-time F1 champion. So if between them they decide Red Bull are no longer as performant as they need to be, it's not inconceivable that this could be Max's last season with the outfit.

The Dutchman's decision to move on, should he decide to make one later this year, would be huge. Not only would it be remarkable to see him represent a team other than Red Bull on the grid, but it would have a massive impact on the rest of the driver market.

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But exactly what would happen would depend on where Verstappen decides to go. Right now, it seems like there would only be two realistic destinations for the Dutchman: Mercedes - despite insisting he's not interested - and .

The latter certainly are keen. Both their drivers have 2026 contracts and it remains to be seen whether owner Lawrence Stroll is truly ambitious enough to axe to make room for Max. But that's a decision he may not have to make with turning 44 in July and, perhaps, no longer at the peak of his powers.

At Mercedes, is out of contract at the end of this year but has been making a strong case for a renewal already. Three podium finishes from the first five Grands Prix of 2025 and fourth in the championship is some pretty impressive form for a man who has shouldered extra responsibility this year, as the undisputed team leader now that Hamilton has moved on.

But can Wolff truly turn a blind eye to Verstappen, should the Dutchman become available? It may now be even harder for him to do so, considering what could happen if the 27-year-old were to decide to follow to Aston Martin.

Because it seems might turn to Russell, if he were to lose his star man. It's understood there have been no serious talks between the two of them over a potential switch to Red Bull, but those informal 'chats' in recent weeks have made it clear that, at the very least, Horner wants to be fully apprised of Russell's situation in case he suddenly finds himself in need of a new lead driver.

Of course, Mercedes have another driver in teenager , but Wolff would surely do everything to avoid losing someone who he believes can be the future superstar of F1. After all, he already saw Verstappen slip though his fingers as a young prodigy and lived to regret that as he watched him achieve so much with the Silver Arrows' biggest rivals.

But Antonelli remains raw and Mercedes need an outstanding, experienced driver to take them forward for now. Russell is doing that job admirably and Verstappen obviously has the talent to succeed if the car allows, but even the small possibility that he could both miss out on Max and lose George to Red Bull should be enough to concern Wolff.

Because there are no obvious alternative options for him to turn to in such a scenario, with most of the grid's top talent tied down. It might end up being the case that reserve driver Valtteri Bottas makes a shock return to a Mercedes race seat, should Wolff find himself staring at the prospect of a future without either Russell or Verstappen driving for his team.

And so the Austrian has a simple choice to make - stick or twist? Does he get Russell tied down quickly, or does he wait until the summer to see what Verstappen plans to do, despite that option coming with the risk of starting 2026 without either of them? The answer to that question will decide just how explosive this year's driver market will be.