A probe launched by the then-Soviet Union in 1972, is expected to fall back to Earth today. Called Kosmos 482, the space probe was intended to land on Venus. However, with the mission failing at the start, four pieces of the space object have been orbiting Earth for over half a century.

One of the pieces will finally come home as the satellite is set to go into an "uncontrolled fall".

While there is a margin of error, the satellite could pass over, and fall in Arab countries, said Mohammed Shawkat Odeh, director of the International Astronomy Centre, and supervisor of its satellite fall monitoring programme. However, it is important to note that the place of the fall cannot be determined with certainty, as its exact location and time is "impossible" to know, experts said.

For now, there are three predictions for when the space probe will fall:

• European Space Agency: 06:36 ± 3.3 hours

• Pentagon: 05:45 ± 2 hours

• Satellite fall tracking program: 07:17 ± 2 hours

According to the satellite fall tracking programme, the space probe is expected to land at 07.17am GMT, with a margin of error of 2 hours. This means the probe could fall anytime between 05.17am and 09.17am GMT (between 9.17am and 1.17pm UAE time).

The attached map shows the location of the fall at the expected time, and the red and green lines show the places where the fall might occur within the margin of error. Within the current margin of error, the fall could occur over any of the following Arab countries: Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Sultanate of Oman, Egypt, Sudan.

However, other images shared by Odeh also indicate other potential locations of falling:

The satellite weighs approximately 500kg and is a spherical object with a diameter of about one metre; it is a "tough object specially designed to withstand the intense pressure and heat of entering Venus' atmosphere," Odeh added.

The original makers of the space probe did keep in mind such circumstances; the object has an automatic parachute system to aid a soft landing. But after more than 50 years, will it work? Experts believe no.

This fall is highly unlikely to pose a direct threat to the lives of people, or to facilities, as the probability of the debris hitting a person is only 1 in 100 billion, Odeh said in a post on X.

When the probe enters Earth's atmosphere, the "intense heat caused by friction disintegrates the satellite and burns parts of it", Odeh added.

This means that only about 20 per cent to 40 per cent of the initial mass reaches Earth; only some pieces will survive.

Odeh said that such falls are not considered exceptionally rare, as relatively large satellites fall every few months.

Recently, satellites that were remnants of Chinese launch rockets have fallen three times in recent years: in April 2021, July 2022, and October 2022.

Since Earth is approximately 70 per cent water, the probability of a satellite's remains falling to Earth is only about 30 per cent, according to the International Astronomical Centre.