Charting the global economy: Chinese exports to the US slumped
Bloomberg May 11, 2025 02:21 PM
Synopsis

Global central banks are responding to economic uncertainty fueled by US trade policies. The Bank of England cautiously cut interest rates, while the Federal Reserve held steady amidst tariff concerns.

China eased monetary policy to combat trade war impacts, and various emerging markets adjusted rates in response to inflation and economic conditions.
(Bloomberg) --The Bank of England lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point and maintained its gradual-easing approach as officials assess US trade policy risks that also explain the Federal Reserve’s decision to remain sidelined.
The BOE move highlighted a more careful tack toward cutting rates than traders had anticipated. Five members voted for the action, while two wanted a larger half-point reduction and another two voted to hold rates steady.

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In the US, uncertainty about the impact from tariffs prompted a unanimous vote by Fed officials to hold interest rates steady. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he and his colleagues are in no hurry to adjust policy as tariffs risk leading to both higher inflation and unemployment.

Meanwhile, China lowered its policy rate and reduced the amount of cash lenders must keep in reserve, illustrating efforts to bolster an economy caught in a trade war with the US.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

World

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In addition to decisions by the Fed and BOE, central bankers in the Czech Republic, Poland, Pakistan and Peru lowered rates. Sweden, Norway, Georgia, Armenia, Malaysia and Serbia kept borrowing costs unchanged. Brazil’s central bank raised to the highest since 2006 as officials work to tame above-target inflation.

Europe

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The BOE held to its guidance that easing should continue to be “gradual and careful” in light of volatility in the global economy caused by Trump’s sweeping tariffs. The central bank gave itself room to shift gears as needed, with the committee saying it “will remain sensitive to heightened unpredictability in the economic environment and will continue to update its assessment of risks.” Hours later, the US president announced a trade framework with the UK, hailing it as a “breakthrough” that will bring down barriers and expand market access for American goods.
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German industrial production rose in March, a period in which looming trade barriers by the US administration probably boosted foreign demand. The 3% gain in output was mainly driven by automotive, pharmaceuticals and machinery.

US

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Fed officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December. In a statement, policymakers said they see a growing risk of both higher inflation and rising unemployment.
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The US trade deficit widened to a record in March, largely due to a surge in imports of pharmaceuticals. The nation’s shortfall with Ireland more than doubled to an all-time high as US drug makers secured shipments ahead of potential tariffs. The customs value of pharmaceuticals and medicines imported from Ireland increased to nearly $28 billion.
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State and local governments — in both Republican and Democratic strongholds — rely on federal dollars for the infrastructure investments, social programs and other projects that undergird their economies. Now, a wide swath of the $1 trillion in annual grants they receive from the federal government is under threat, creating deep uncertainty just as Trump’s trade war has raised fears of a punishing recession.

Asia

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China’s exports rose more than forecast in April even as shipments to the US slumped sharply in the first month after the Trump administration targeted its goods with tariffs above 100%. The first official hard data after the trade war escalated captures only the initial damage from the prohibitive tariffs, with their effects likely to become more pronounced starting this month.
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China’s services activity deteriorated more than expected in April, a private survey showed, the latest setback for an economy already under pressure from US tariffs. With the official PMIs showing factory activity already took a hit from massive US tariff hikes in April, the question now is whether policymakers will be able to boost consumption fast enough to make up for an expected loss of demand for exports.
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The Philippine central bank on Tuesday signaled further monetary easing ahead after inflation slowed to the lowest level since 2019, and warned of a “more challenging external environment.” Officials lowered the benchmark rate last month and signaled further policy easing ahead as the risks of a global slowdown due to higher US tariffs confront the Southeast Asian nation.

Emerging Markets

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Brazil’s annual inflation picked up roughly in line with forecasts last month, in a report published days after the central bank lifted the interest rate and indicated it was nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
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Mexico’s inflation accelerated more than expected in April while remaining within the central bank’s target range, likely keeping a half-point interest rate cut next week on the table.
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Ghana’s inflation rate fell to an eight-month low in April as the West African nation’s world-beating currency helped rein in import costs. The cedi has strengthened almost 16% against the dollar since the start of April, making it the world’s best-performing currency, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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