Cogito, ergo sum
ET CONTRIBUTORS May 26, 2025 05:00 AM
Synopsis

Hypothesis testing helps overcome confirmation bias, where individuals favor information confirming their beliefs. Seeking diverse perspectives and validating hypotheses with real-world tests are crucial. Action planning with quick, inexpensive experiments and clear accountability ensures effective execution. Employing this systematic approach selectively optimizes efficiency.

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Hypothesis testing is the ability to spot confirmation bias and emotional investment in ideas. Confirmation bias is a trick that our mind plays on us wherein we only pick information which supports a particularly favourite hypothesis of ours. The mind unconsciously disregards any information that might disprove this hypothesis. A ruse that one can employ to thwart this insidious bias from preventing us to reach the right conclusion, involves drafting services of a colleague who may have a very different 'favourite' hypothesis. This colleague may quickly point out data points or information that may disprove our hypothesis.

This bias is often seen when amateurs trade in stocks where they get emotionally attached to apposition, thereby not cutting losses early in the piece.

Finally, once the hypothesis has been validated with information, it is ready to be tested in the real world. This requires crisp action planning, which incorporates the principle of 'act fast; fail cheap'-define actions that aren't resource-heavy, can be executed fast, and can act like confirmatory tests for hypothesis testing. Responsibility and target dates are simple but often forgotten or avoided, a practice that helps in strong execution.

Does all the above require time? Yes. 'Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow' by Daniel Kahneman, illustrates that we need to be selective in employing this systematic approach to ensure efficiency.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
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