Just ahead of crucial peace talks in Istanbul, Ukraine launched an audacious attack sending hundreds of drones deep into the Russian territory and supposedly destroying nearly one third of the Russian air force fleet, including nuclear-powered bombers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky affirmed that ‘Operation Spider Web’, as it has been termed, was a ‘brilliant’ strategic move that will undoubtedly be in the ‘history books’ and had been planned eighteen months ago. He asserted that it was a purely Ukrainian effort, probably to save his western neighbours from reprisals by the Kremlin. Zelensky’s other message was undoubtedly to US President Donald Trump, who had a nasty faceoff with the Ukrainian leader in the Oval Office. Trump had told Zelensky, “You don’t have the cards. With us you have the cards, but without us you don’t have any cards.” With the surprise drone attacks, Zelensky proved Trump wrong.
Taken aback by the Ukrainian attacks, Russians launched deadly counterattacks by land and air across Ukraine, claiming some casualties. This does not bode well for the second round of talks in Istanbul, which appear to be on course despite the fresh hostilities. The first round of talks, more than three years since Russia invaded Ukraine, which were held on May 16, also in Istanbul, yielded the biggest prisoner swap in the current conflict, but there was no movement on ceasefire negotiations. There appears to be no end in sight to the bloody war that has raged Russia against the West. There is no doubt that Ukraine has been able to hold out as long as it has only because of the backing of its European allies. The military and economic support that Kyiv has received over these last three years is testimony to the deep distrust with which Vladimir Putin is viewed by the West. The Trump factor has changed equations, no doubt, but the US President himself is expressing his frustration at Russia’s intransigence and refusal to arrive at a ceasefire deal.
Putin’s expansionist designs are viewed with trepidation by the European Union countries and Britain. The invasion and speedy annexation of Crimea more than a decade ago was the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the wholly unjustified invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was met with strong resistance that surprised Moscow.
Among Putin’s demands for a semblance of a ceasefire are that Ukraine will, under no circumstances, join NATO. Trump had earlier hinted that Ukraine will have to cede some territory captured by Russia in the interest of peace. This war has taken a huge toll on the Ukrainian people and economy. It needs to end quickly, but that will be possible only if the Kremlin displays a sincere will for peace and Kyiv, too, meets its rival halfway.
The Western and US mediation can work only if they take into consideration the concerns of the principal parties to the conflict. The Istanbul talks are unlikely to prove to be a turning point, but hope lives on.
