Markets consolidated for the third consecutive week but managed to end higher by nearly a percent, buoyed by favorable domestic cues. After remaining range-bound for most of the week, benchmark indices surged sharply on Friday and settled near the week’s high, with the Nifty closing at 25,003 and the Sensex at 82,118.99.
Initially, mixed global cues—such as ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations—kept investor sentiment subdued. However, supportive domestic developments helped limit the downside. The highlight of the week was the RBI’s policy announcement, which took the market by surprise. The central bank implemented a sharper-than-expected 50 bps repo rate cut and a 100 bps CRR reduction, signaling a strong pro-growth stance. Notably, the policy stance was also shifted from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’—a move that came sooner than expected.
With this setup in place, analyst Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research, SBI Securities interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty along with an index strategy for the upcoming week. Following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
So how is the market mood like? What are you reading in the market right now after the MPC outcome?
"The best trades often come wrapped in surprise announcements and clean technical setups." That’s exactly what played out this week, as the Reserve Bank of India delivered a 50-basis points rate cut — a move that not only surprised the Street but also acted as a powerful technical trigger across the market. Bank Nifty, which had been moving in a narrow consolidation band (Stage-2 Cup pattern) for over 31 sessions, broke out with conviction, backed by strong momentum. This was not surprising for us, as we had been consistently highlighting that Bank Nifty was gearing up for a breakout. Nifty, too, rebounded from the lower end of its consolidation range and is now on the verge of a decisive breakout, indicating a potential shift in market structure.
Adding further fuel to the bullish sentiment, the volatility index India VIX ended on a negative note for the second consecutive week. This week alone, it tumbled by 9%, signaling cooling market nerves and growing risk appetite among participants. Historically, a falling VIX, combined with price and volume breakouts, reinforces the sustainability of an uptrend — precisely the kind of technical environment we're witnessing now.
The Nifty closed the week near the psychological 25000 mark. On the weekly chart, it formed a bullish candle with a noticeable lower shadow — a classic sign of buying interest at lower levels. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with all key moving average setups aligning in favor of the bulls. Most notably, the daily RSI has surged past the 60 mark and continues to rise, further affirming bullish strength.
Going ahead, we believe the index is well poised to test 25200, followed by 25500 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 24750–24700 is likely to act as a strong support in case of any immediate pullback.
Let's talk about the banking sector. How does it look with the RBI's stance and 50 bps repo rate cut and a 100 bps CRR cut?
The Banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has given a stage-2 cup pattern breakout on the daily scale. Further, it has formed a sizeable bullish candle on the breakout, which adds strength to the breakout. Also, it has marked the fresh all-time high.
Technically, all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators suggest strong bullish momentum in the index. The daily RSI is quoting at 67.45, and it is in rising trajectory, which suggests strong bullish momentum.
As per the measured rule of cup pattern, the upside target is placed at 58700 level. While on the downside, the zone of 55700-55600 is likely to provide the cushion in case of any immediate decline.
Any banking stocks in focus after this?
Following the RBI’s policy boost, several banking stocks have come into focus with strong technical setups. HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, IDFC First Bank, and AU Small Finance Bank are all showing promising bullish structures.
Technically, these stocks are trading above key moving averages, with momentum indicators like RSI supporting the ongoing strength. Most of them are either approaching breakout levels or have recently broken out of consolidation zones, suggesting continued upside potential in the near term.
Does history indicate anything about how the June series has typically performed?
Tracking seasonality, over the past 18 years, the June month has often exhibited a positive trend for Nifty. On 11 occasions, the index has concluded on a positive note with an average gain of 4.19%, while on 7 occasions, it has ended on a negative note with an average loss of 3.80%. The average return for Nifty in the June series has been 1.09%. Over the past 18 years, June has consistently shown an average volatility of 7.80 percent for the Nifty index.
Historically, Bank Nifty has also shown a positive trend in June over the past 18 years. Out of these, it closed positively 11 times, with an average gain of 4.52%, while ending negatively 7 times, with an average loss of 5.63%. The average return for Bank Nifty in the June series has been 0.58%. However, Bank Nifty has demonstrated an average volatility of approximately 9.30 percent for the past 18 years.
What's your take on the FIIs now? Does it look like they have any motivation to come back to India in full swing?
FII activity is currently showing mixed signals. While they were net buyers in equities during March, April, and May, they have turned net sellers so far in June. This indicates some hesitation or profit-booking amid global uncertainties or reallocation.
However, in the derivatives segment, the FII long-short ratio stands at just 20.87%, reflecting a heavy short bias. This suggests that much of the selling may already be priced in, leaving limited room for additional aggressive shorting. If the market continues its upward momentum, it could trigger short-covering by FIIs, potentially leading to fresh buying and renewed participation. So, while they may not be back in full swing yet, the setup is such that any sustained rally could act as a catalyst for a stronger FII comeback.
What’s your say on the realty sector after a sharp surge post RBI MPC outcome? And preferred stocks?
The realty sector has extended its bullish momentum, posting gains for the fourth consecutive week and sharply outperforming the frontline indices. The ratio chart of Nifty Realty vs. Nifty is at a 20-week high, clearly reflecting sustained outperformance.
Technically, the index is trading well above its short and long-term moving averages, all of which are sloping upward—a sign of strong trend strength. The daily RSI is in the super bullish zone and continues to rise, suggesting the momentum is intact and further upside is likely in the coming sessions.
Among stocks, DLF, Godrej Properties, Oberoi Realty, Arkade Developers, and Sobha Developers are showing strong technical setups and remain the preferred picks from the space.
Your take on Bajaj Finserv after the block deal. Stock absorbed it pretty well, and in fact, it closed over 2% higher. What do the charts say?
The stock of Bajaj Finserv has taken support near its 100-day EMA level and thereafter witnessed a smart rebound. However, despite this bounce, the stock continues to trade within a broader sideways range, and strong directional momentum is yet to emerge. The daily RSI has remained in a sideways trajectory for the past 27 trading sessions, as per RSI range shift rules, reflecting a lack of sustained trend strength.
For now, a decisive breakout above the upper end of the consolidation range is needed to confirm a trend reversal and attract follow-through buying. Until then, the stock may continue to move in a range-bound manner with a slightly positive bias.
Let's have your take on a few stocks near their all-time high- MCX, Bharti Airtel, IndiGo, SRF
MCX: The stock has witnessed a strong bullish momentum in the last couple of trading sessions. On a daily scale, it has formed a Record Session Count candlestick pattern, which suggests stock is in an overbought zone. Hence, we believe it is likely to slid into the period of consolidation.
Bharti Airtel: The stock is in sideways zone.
IndiGo: The stock is oscillating in the zone of 5665-5230 level.
SRF: The stock has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a daily scale. It is likely to continue its northward journey.
Any breakout stocks on your radar?
Technically, DLF, IDFC First Bank, HDFC Bank, Manappuram, Shriram Finance, Poonawalla Fincorp, Aditya Birla Capital, Nam-India, Bajaj Finance and Arkade Developers are looking good.
Any sector you feel that is set to outperform?
Nifty Bank, Nifty Private Bank, and Nifty Financial Services have registered a clear consolidation breakout on the daily chart, indicating a resumption of the bullish trend. These indices are well-positioned to extend their northward journey in the coming sessions.
Meanwhile, Nifty Realty and Nifty Metal are showing strong bullish momentum. Their current chart structures reflect sustained strength, and both are likely to witness further upside in the short term.
On the other hand, Nifty Auto, Nifty CPSE, and Nifty PSE have bounced back smartly from their respective support zones. This rebound is technically encouraging and points towards the continuation of bullish momentum in the near term.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Initially, mixed global cues—such as ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations—kept investor sentiment subdued. However, supportive domestic developments helped limit the downside. The highlight of the week was the RBI’s policy announcement, which took the market by surprise. The central bank implemented a sharper-than-expected 50 bps repo rate cut and a 100 bps CRR reduction, signaling a strong pro-growth stance. Notably, the policy stance was also shifted from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’—a move that came sooner than expected.
With this setup in place, analyst Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research, SBI Securities interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty along with an index strategy for the upcoming week. Following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
So how is the market mood like? What are you reading in the market right now after the MPC outcome?
"The best trades often come wrapped in surprise announcements and clean technical setups." That’s exactly what played out this week, as the Reserve Bank of India delivered a 50-basis points rate cut — a move that not only surprised the Street but also acted as a powerful technical trigger across the market. Bank Nifty, which had been moving in a narrow consolidation band (Stage-2 Cup pattern) for over 31 sessions, broke out with conviction, backed by strong momentum. This was not surprising for us, as we had been consistently highlighting that Bank Nifty was gearing up for a breakout. Nifty, too, rebounded from the lower end of its consolidation range and is now on the verge of a decisive breakout, indicating a potential shift in market structure.
Adding further fuel to the bullish sentiment, the volatility index India VIX ended on a negative note for the second consecutive week. This week alone, it tumbled by 9%, signaling cooling market nerves and growing risk appetite among participants. Historically, a falling VIX, combined with price and volume breakouts, reinforces the sustainability of an uptrend — precisely the kind of technical environment we're witnessing now.
The Nifty closed the week near the psychological 25000 mark. On the weekly chart, it formed a bullish candle with a noticeable lower shadow — a classic sign of buying interest at lower levels. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with all key moving average setups aligning in favor of the bulls. Most notably, the daily RSI has surged past the 60 mark and continues to rise, further affirming bullish strength.
Going ahead, we believe the index is well poised to test 25200, followed by 25500 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 24750–24700 is likely to act as a strong support in case of any immediate pullback.
Let's talk about the banking sector. How does it look with the RBI's stance and 50 bps repo rate cut and a 100 bps CRR cut?
The Banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has given a stage-2 cup pattern breakout on the daily scale. Further, it has formed a sizeable bullish candle on the breakout, which adds strength to the breakout. Also, it has marked the fresh all-time high.
Technically, all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators suggest strong bullish momentum in the index. The daily RSI is quoting at 67.45, and it is in rising trajectory, which suggests strong bullish momentum.
As per the measured rule of cup pattern, the upside target is placed at 58700 level. While on the downside, the zone of 55700-55600 is likely to provide the cushion in case of any immediate decline.
Any banking stocks in focus after this?
Following the RBI’s policy boost, several banking stocks have come into focus with strong technical setups. HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, IDFC First Bank, and AU Small Finance Bank are all showing promising bullish structures.
Technically, these stocks are trading above key moving averages, with momentum indicators like RSI supporting the ongoing strength. Most of them are either approaching breakout levels or have recently broken out of consolidation zones, suggesting continued upside potential in the near term.
Does history indicate anything about how the June series has typically performed?
Tracking seasonality, over the past 18 years, the June month has often exhibited a positive trend for Nifty. On 11 occasions, the index has concluded on a positive note with an average gain of 4.19%, while on 7 occasions, it has ended on a negative note with an average loss of 3.80%. The average return for Nifty in the June series has been 1.09%. Over the past 18 years, June has consistently shown an average volatility of 7.80 percent for the Nifty index.
Historically, Bank Nifty has also shown a positive trend in June over the past 18 years. Out of these, it closed positively 11 times, with an average gain of 4.52%, while ending negatively 7 times, with an average loss of 5.63%. The average return for Bank Nifty in the June series has been 0.58%. However, Bank Nifty has demonstrated an average volatility of approximately 9.30 percent for the past 18 years.
What's your take on the FIIs now? Does it look like they have any motivation to come back to India in full swing?
FII activity is currently showing mixed signals. While they were net buyers in equities during March, April, and May, they have turned net sellers so far in June. This indicates some hesitation or profit-booking amid global uncertainties or reallocation.
However, in the derivatives segment, the FII long-short ratio stands at just 20.87%, reflecting a heavy short bias. This suggests that much of the selling may already be priced in, leaving limited room for additional aggressive shorting. If the market continues its upward momentum, it could trigger short-covering by FIIs, potentially leading to fresh buying and renewed participation. So, while they may not be back in full swing yet, the setup is such that any sustained rally could act as a catalyst for a stronger FII comeback.
What’s your say on the realty sector after a sharp surge post RBI MPC outcome? And preferred stocks?
The realty sector has extended its bullish momentum, posting gains for the fourth consecutive week and sharply outperforming the frontline indices. The ratio chart of Nifty Realty vs. Nifty is at a 20-week high, clearly reflecting sustained outperformance.
Technically, the index is trading well above its short and long-term moving averages, all of which are sloping upward—a sign of strong trend strength. The daily RSI is in the super bullish zone and continues to rise, suggesting the momentum is intact and further upside is likely in the coming sessions.
Among stocks, DLF, Godrej Properties, Oberoi Realty, Arkade Developers, and Sobha Developers are showing strong technical setups and remain the preferred picks from the space.
Your take on Bajaj Finserv after the block deal. Stock absorbed it pretty well, and in fact, it closed over 2% higher. What do the charts say?
The stock of Bajaj Finserv has taken support near its 100-day EMA level and thereafter witnessed a smart rebound. However, despite this bounce, the stock continues to trade within a broader sideways range, and strong directional momentum is yet to emerge. The daily RSI has remained in a sideways trajectory for the past 27 trading sessions, as per RSI range shift rules, reflecting a lack of sustained trend strength.
For now, a decisive breakout above the upper end of the consolidation range is needed to confirm a trend reversal and attract follow-through buying. Until then, the stock may continue to move in a range-bound manner with a slightly positive bias.
Let's have your take on a few stocks near their all-time high- MCX, Bharti Airtel, IndiGo, SRF
MCX: The stock has witnessed a strong bullish momentum in the last couple of trading sessions. On a daily scale, it has formed a Record Session Count candlestick pattern, which suggests stock is in an overbought zone. Hence, we believe it is likely to slid into the period of consolidation.
Bharti Airtel: The stock is in sideways zone.
IndiGo: The stock is oscillating in the zone of 5665-5230 level.
SRF: The stock has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a daily scale. It is likely to continue its northward journey.
Any breakout stocks on your radar?
Technically, DLF, IDFC First Bank, HDFC Bank, Manappuram, Shriram Finance, Poonawalla Fincorp, Aditya Birla Capital, Nam-India, Bajaj Finance and Arkade Developers are looking good.
Any sector you feel that is set to outperform?
Nifty Bank, Nifty Private Bank, and Nifty Financial Services have registered a clear consolidation breakout on the daily chart, indicating a resumption of the bullish trend. These indices are well-positioned to extend their northward journey in the coming sessions.
Meanwhile, Nifty Realty and Nifty Metal are showing strong bullish momentum. Their current chart structures reflect sustained strength, and both are likely to witness further upside in the short term.
On the other hand, Nifty Auto, Nifty CPSE, and Nifty PSE have bounced back smartly from their respective support zones. This rebound is technically encouraging and points towards the continuation of bullish momentum in the near term.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
