You’re in for some grim news.


The United Nations has issued a stark warning regarding the fertility rate worldwide. According to a new report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the UN agency for reproductive rights, global fertility rates are experiencing an "unprecedented decline."

The agency has taken its strongest line yet on fertility decline, warning that hundreds of millions of people are not able to have the number of children they want, citing the prohibitive cost of parenthood and the lack of a suitable partner as some of the reasons, signaling a demographic shift that could reshape societies, economies, and policies worldwide.


What happened?
UNFPA surveyed 14,000 people in 14 countries about their fertility intentions. One in five said they haven't had or expect they won't have their desired number of children.

The countries surveyed - South Korea, Thailand, Italy, Hungary, Germany, Sweden, Brazil, Mexico, the US, India, Indonesia, Morocco, South Africa, and Nigeria - account for a third of the global population.

They are a mix of low, middle, and high-income countries and those with low and high fertility. UNFPA surveyed young adults and those past their reproductive years.

As per Dr Natalia Kanem, head of UNFPA, who told the BBC, "The world has begun an unprecedented decline in fertility rates."


What are the findings?
According to Dr Kanem, "Most people surveyed want two or more children. Fertility rates are falling in large part because many feel unable to create the families they want. And that is the real crisis."

The survey, which is a pilot for research in 50 countries later this year, is limited in its scope. When it comes to age groups within countries, for example, the sample sizes are too small to draw solid conclusions. However, some findings are clear.

In all countries, 39% of people said financial limitations prevented them from having a child.

The highest response was in Korea (58%), the lowest in Sweden (19%).

In total, only 12% of people cited infertility - or difficulty conceiving - as a reason for not having the number of children they wanted to. But that figure was higher in countries including Thailand (19%), the US (16%), South Africa (15%), Nigeria (14%), and India (13%).


Experts’ take:
As per demographer Anna Rotkirch, who has researched fertility intentions in Europe and advises the Finnish government on population policy, quoted by the BBC, "Calling this a crisis, saying it's real. That's a shift I think." She added, "Overall, there's more undershooting than overshooting of fertility ideals." Anna has studied this at length in Europe and is interested to see it reflected at a global level. She was also surprised by how many respondents over 50 (31%) said they had fewer children than they wanted.

As per Prof Stuart Gietel-Basten, demographer at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, quoted by the BBC, "This is the first time that [the UN] have really gone all-out on low fertility issues.” Until recently, the agency focused heavily on women who have more children than they wanted and the "unmet need" for contraception.

Still, the UNFPA is urging caution in response to low fertility.

As per Dr Kanem, "Right now, what we're seeing is a lot of rhetoric of catastrophe, either overpopulation or shrinking population, which leads to this kind of exaggerated response, and sometimes a manipulative response. In terms of trying to get women to have more children, or fewer."

Dr Kanem also pointed out that 40 years ago, China, Korea, Japan, Thailand, and Turkey were all worried their populations were too high. By 2015, they wanted to boost fertility.

According to Prof Gietel-Basten, "We want to try as far as possible to avoid those countries enacting any kind of panicky policies." He added, "We are seeing low fertility, population ageing, population stagnation used as an excuse to implement nationalist, anti-migrant policies and gender conservative policies."



Factors responsible for the decline in fertility rate:
While the decline in fertility rates is a complex issue influenced by a multitude of factors, including societal changes, economic shifts, and advancements in reproductive technologies, key drivers include increased female education, changing societal attitudes towards family size, access to contraception, and rising concerns about infertility due to lifestyle factors and environmental pollution.

Here's a more detailed look at the key factors:

Socio-economic and cultural factors:

Increased female education and workforce participation: Education and employment opportunities for women often lead to later marriages and smaller family sizes, as women prioritize careers and personal growth.

Changing societal norms and attitudes: Traditional values emphasizing large families are gradually giving way to smaller, more modern family structures.

Economic development and urbanization: As countries develop, the costs of raising children can increase, leading to a desire for fewer children.

Greater emphasis on individual aspirations and career goals: Women and couples are increasingly prioritizing their personal and professional goals, leading to delayed childbearing.

Access to family planning and reproductive health services: The availability of contraception and family planning resources empowers individuals to make informed choices about family size.

Shift in childbearing preferences: Individuals are increasingly choosing to have fewer children or delay parenthood, reflecting changing values and priorities.

Health and infertility:

Rising cases of infertility: Lifestyle factors (obesity, stress, smoking), environmental pollution, and increased awareness of reproductive health issues contribute to rising infertility rates.

Age-related decline in fertility: Both men and women experience a decline in fertility with age, with women's fertility declining more rapidly after the mid-30s.

Medical conditions affecting fertility: Various medical conditions, such as thyroid disease, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), and endometriosis, can impact fertility.

Technological and policy factors:

Advancements in reproductive technologies: While these technologies offer hope for infertile couples, they can also contribute to a decline in natural conception rates.

Family planning policies and programs: Government initiatives promoting family planning and reproductive health can influence fertility rates.

Environmental factors:

Pollution and environmental toxins: Environmental pollutants can negatively impact reproductive health and contribute to infertility.

Climate change: The effects of climate change can also impact reproductive health and fertility.



What can be done to reverse the decline?
Reversing the global decline in fertility rates requires a multifaceted approach, focusing on economic stability, social support, and policy changes. While some factors like education and access to healthcare are associated with lower fertility, reversing the trend necessitates creating environments that are more conducive to having children.

Here's a breakdown of strategies:

Economic stability and opportunity:

Promote stable employment and income growth: Economic security is a major factor in family planning decisions. Policies that foster job creation, reduce unemployment, and increase wages can make having children more feasible.

Reduce the cost of raising children: Significant expenses associated with childcare, education, and housing can deter families from having more children. Subsidized childcare, affordable housing programs, and tax breaks for larger families can help alleviate these burdens.

Social support and family-friendly policies:

Extended parental leave: Fully paid and extended parental leave, shared between both parents, can provide families with the time they need to adjust to new parenthood without financial hardship.

Access to childcare: Affordable, high-quality childcare options are crucial for working parents who wish to have children. Public and subsidized childcare programs can ensure that families can access the care they need.

Supportive community and family networks: Strong social support systems, including extended family and friends, can help parents navigate the challenges of raising children. Programs that connect families with resources and support can create a more welcoming environment for new parents.

Addressing societal norms and values:

Promote a positive view of parenting: Public campaigns and educational initiatives can challenge negative stereotypes about having children and promote a more positive view of parenthood.

Support work-life balance: Policies that encourage employers to offer flexible work arrangements and support work-life balance can help families integrate work and family responsibilities more effectively.

Address gender inequality: Gender inequality in the home and workplace can hinder women's ability to pursue their family goals. Policies that promote gender equality in education, employment, and childcare can create more equitable opportunities for all families.

Healthcare and reproductive health:

Expand access to fertility treatments: Improved access to safe and affordable fertility treatments can help couples who are struggling to conceive. Public health programs can ensure that individuals have access to the care they need to achieve their family goals.

Protect reproductive health: Promoting reproductive health education and access to contraception can help individuals make informed decisions about family planning.

International cooperation and immigration:

Address global inequality: Addressing global inequality and poverty can have a positive impact on fertility rates in developing countries.

Increase immigration: Some argue that increasing immigration can help to offset population decline and maintain a stable workforce.

Important considerations:
The most effective policies will vary depending on the specific context and needs of each country and community. ‘One-size-fits-all’ solution doesn’t work in that field. Moreover, reversing fertility declines is a long-term process that requires sustained effort and commitment. Ultimately, policies should aim to support the well-being of families and individuals, creating environments where they feel empowered to pursue their family goals.