1. The Claim That Rocked South Asia, AgainOn 7 June 2025, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that a simmering India-Pakistan clash earlier this spring “could have gone nuclear” but for his personal intervention. He added a flourish he has used before: “We can’t trade with countries firing missiles.” According to Trump, threatening to suspend market access and future trade deals forced both New Delhi and Islamabad to back down.
This was not a one-off remark. Two days earlier, the Kremlin released a summary of a Putin-Trump phone call in which senior aide Yury Ushakov credited the U.S. president with halting the conflict. Moscow’s nod gave the story new life—yet it directly contradicted India’s own version of events.
2. New Delhi’s Flat DenialIndia’s Ministry of External Affairs wasted no time. In a formal briefing it stressed that, while leaders had remained in touch with Washington during the crisis, “no conversation on trade leverages took place,” and the eventual cease-fire was arranged bilaterally by Indian and Pakistani military commanders. A week later, officials again rebuffed the American narrative, calling suggestions of trade coercion “factually incorrect and diplomatically unhelpful.”
Why the sharp pushback? Accepting Trump’s version would imply that India—an aspiring great power—required outside pressure to manage its own security. Domestically, that is political poison.

3. What Actually Happened on the Ground?To make sense of the competing stories, it helps to revisit the crisis timeline. In late April, militants killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir. New Delhi blamed Pakistan-based groups and launched Operation Sindoor, a series of limited-range missile strikes on what it called “terror infrastructure” across the Line of Control. Pakistan responded with swarms of drones on Indian logistics hubs. Within 72 hours, both air forces were on high alert and artillery duels had begun along the de facto border.

By 8 May, Indian missiles reportedly struck three Pakistani air bases, including Nur Khan in Rawalpindi—home to the unit that safeguards Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal. Fears of uncontrolled escalation skyrocketed.
4. The Nuclear Sword of DamoclesGlobal anxiety about nuclear use had, in truth, already been rising. Arms-control treaties between the U.S. and Russia are fraying, and nine states now possess more than 12 000 warheads. Yet India and Pakistan remain the only two nuclear rivals to have fought a hot war in the 21st century (Kargil, 1999). Each side also maintains battlefield nuclear options—raising the odds that a tactical exchange could spiral.
Against that backdrop, talk of an imminent “bad nuclear war,” as Trump phrased it, struck a nerve well beyond South Asia’s borders.
5. Enter the Trump Doctrine—Trade as a HammerTrump says he leveraged America’s $190 billion two-way merchandise trade with India and Pakistan, warning that preferential tariffs and future free-trade talks would freeze unless the guns fell silent. Supporters argue the threat was credible: both economies rely heavily on exports to the U.S. Skeptics note there is scant evidence such a message was ever delivered through formal diplomatic channels—and that neither capital publicly linked commerce to cease-fire terms.
6. What We Know About Washington’s Mediation EffortReporting by The Guardian paints a more nuanced picture. After initial reluctance, the White House tasked Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser JD Vance with separate call chains—Rubio to Pakistan’s army chief Gen. Asim Munir, Vance to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Parallel outreach came from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, and the UK. By Saturday afternoon a cease-fire was brokered, with implementation details left to the two militaries.

Noticeably absent in these accounts is any mention of punitive trade measures—suggesting that diplomacy, not tariffs, carried the day.
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7. Russia’s Surprising Endorsement So why did Moscow echo Trump’s boast? Analysts see several incentives. First, Russia positions itself as a power broker for both New Delhi (a major defence customer) and Islamabad (a budding energy partner). Acknowledging U.S. leadership costs Moscow little but reminds all parties of Russia’s own seat at the table. Second, flattery could be transactional: Trump has hinted at easing certain sanctions on Russian banking.

8. Pakistan’s Calculus—Quiet Relief, Public Gratitude
Islamabad, for its part, welcomed American “facilitation” without delving into specifics. Officials thanked Washington for “recognizing Pakistan’s readiness to de-escalate,” a phrase that signals relief more than deference. Privately, Pakistani strategists admit the army was war-weary and concerned about India’s demonstrated willingness to strike deep inside Pakistan. A face-saving cease-fire mediated by a superpower was, in many ways, the best-case outcome.

9. India’s Domestic Backlash and the Politics of PrestigeInside India the cease-fire cut two ways. Supporters praised Modi for neutralizing terror camps and avoiding a prolonged conflict; critics asked why missiles flew if hostilities ended in just three days. Some opposition leaders accused the government of handing Trump an undeserved diplomatic victory and inviting de facto third-party mediation—long an Indian red line.
That criticism helps explain New Delhi’s vigor in dismissing Trump’s trade narrative: accepting U.S. “pressure” would undercut the ruling party’s nationalist brand.

10. The Economics—Could Tariff Threats Really Bite?Even if Trump did brandish tariffs, would it matter? India sends about 18 % of its goods exports to the U.S.; Pakistan, roughly 16 %. Textile, pharmaceutical, and IT services sectors would feel immediate pain. Yet trade talks are two-way streets. Washington is courting India to diversify supply chains away from China and relies on Pakistani air corridors for limited Afghanistan-related logistics. An outright freeze could sting both sides—suggesting any threat was likely narrow and time-bound.

What is undeniable is the larger truth the crisis underscores: Asia’s nuclear flashpoints can ignite with terrifying speed, and resolving them will remain messy, contested, and politically charged. In that arena, storytelling is itself a form of power—and Trump, whatever one thinks of his methods, remains a master storyteller.

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