Passengers who had left Israel aboard the Crown Iris cruise ship, arrive at Larnca International Airport, amid Israel-Iran conflict, in Larnaca, Cyprus, June 18, 2025. Photo by Reuters

The conflict in the Middle East has already had a wide impact on air travel in that region, she stated, saying that several airlines that operate flights to Thailand – among them Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, Flydubai, Air Arabia, Oman Air and SalamAir – had adjusted their routes to avoid conflict zones and airspace closures by some countries. So far, Tehran-based Mahan Air is the only carrier that has temporarily canceled flights to Bangkok and Phuket due to airspace closures in Iran, resulting in the Iranian market evaporating during this period.

Thapanee said the five markets – Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria – comprised 7% of visitors arriving in Thailand from the Middle East in June 2024, with the region, excluding Israel, recording 100,781 travelers.

Arrivals from those five markets may drop by 30-50% to between 3,500 and 5,000 during the month as a significant number of tourists and airlines postpone trips during the Eid al-Adha festival, which is a peak travel period that attracted 7,165 tourists last year, she continued.

Thapanee said the TAT is also monitoring the long-term impact that could extend to other Middle Eastern countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, which account for 80% of the overall Middle East market, if tourists perceive air travel as being unsafe.

Hotels in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket and Chiang Mai, key destinations for these markets, are likely to experience the most severe short-term impact. If tensions are resolved within this month, the flow of arrivals should begin to rebound in July as some airlines have still confirmed that they plan to operate new routes to Thailand.

However, she said, a full recovery may depend on the extent of the damage caused by the war.

The TAT is aiming to attract 1.06 million visitors from the Middle East this year, an increase of 11% over 2024, and hopes to generate about 86 billion THB ($2.65 billion) in revenue.