The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) is facing calls to take action amidst concerns that younger workers could be hit by a surge in the state pension age in the near future. An IFS report warned that to maintain the triple lock affordability for the Government, the state pension age would need to increase to 74 by 2069.
This prediction would mean that those born after 1994 might have to put in almost ten years extra work compared to their parents before qualifying for a state pension. This would likely be preceded by a slight increase in 2049, when the age threshold for the state pension would need to reach 69, impacting everyone born post-1980.
The triple lock mechanism ensures annual increases to state pension payouts, according to the highest of three metrics: wage increases, inflation, or 2.5%.
The report warns: "Modelling in the 2022 Independent Review shows that the increases in the state pension age required to keep spending on the state pension below a certain level of national income would also have to be substantial.
"That modelling shows that to keep public spending on the state pension below 6% of national income while retaining the triple lock, the state pension age would have to rise to 69 by 2048-49."
Existing plans for changing the state pension age show it's intended to be just 68 by 2046. It currently sits at 66 with an expected rise to 67 by 2028.
The report warned that the "unpredictable" nature of the triple lock mechanism on state pensions makes it hard to predict future spending. By 2050, the cost of state pensions could rise by anywhere between £5 billion and £40 billion.
However, the report also highlighted the severe consequences of state pension age rises: "Rising state pension ages have substantially pushed up the risk of income poverty among those in their mid-60s. Those reaching retirement in the private rented sector, increasing in number, are also at a heightened risk of poverty throughout their retirement."
The report proposes a "four-point guarantee" as an alternative to the current triple lock system, ensuring annual increases are in line with inflation at the very least, and linked to earnings. This guarantee also includes a pledge that the state pension will never be subject to means testing and that the pension age will rise with longevity, but not at the same pace.
Mike Ambery, Retirement Savings Director at Standard Life, shared his insights with Birmingham Live: "The report correctly identifies widespread under-saving and gaps in pension provision.
"We are supportive of their conclusion that there is not a one-size-fits-all solution to these problems, but there is a need to be more inclusive, particularly for the self-employed, as well as for younger workers who are not yet included.
"The risk of over-saving for those on low incomes is significant, but so too is the need for most of those on average or higher earnings to save more. Striking the right balance will be a key challenge of the adequacy review, and any change would need to be carefully considered and in consultation, especially with employers."
The report also calls for some changes to automatic enrolment, which is the process that most people are enrolled in workplace pension schemes. It praised the "simple design" of automatic enrolment but added: "Despite its strengths, the system faces significant challenges."
It recommended that the government make it easier for self-employed people to participate and allow people to save more when they are earning more by increasing default contributions for people who are on or above average earnings.