Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries (RIL) will announce its Q1 earnings on Friday, July 18, where the company is expected to report a steady performance, with healthy year-on-year (YoY) growth in profit aided by one-time gains from the Asian Paints stake sale. The operating income will be led by robust showings in the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C), Digital, and retail segments.

Sequentially, performance may be muted due to weakness in the Exploration & Production (E&P) business and a high base in Q4.

Estimates of four brokerages are taken into account viz. Kotak Institutional Equities, Yes Securities, PhillipCapital and Nuvama Institutional Equities.

Here's what brokerages expect:

1. PAT (Profit After Tax)

RIL’s Q1FY26 PAT is expected to rise sharply YoY across most estimates.

• Kotak Equities sees the highest PAT at Rs 28,542 crore, up 88.5% YoY and 47.1% QoQ, factoring in one-time gains from the Asian Paints stake sale.
  
• Yes Securities projects PAT at Rs 23,693 crore, up 36% YoY and up 5% QoQ.
  
• PhillipCapital expects Rs 22,463 crore, up 22% YoY and down 1% QoQ.
  
• Nuvama sees core PAT at Rs 19,443 crore, up 28% YoY, flat QoQ, excluding exceptional items.
  

The growth is largely driven by higher earnings in Digital, Retail, and O2C businesses, partially offset by a decline in E&P.

2. Revenue

Revenue trends are seen to be mixed, with YoY growth in some estimates but sequential declines across the board.

• Yes Securities pegs revenue at Rs 2,50,900 crore, up 8.2% YoY and down 4% QoQ
  
• PhillipCapital sees topline at Rs 2,45,051 crore, up 5% YoY and down 7% QoQ
  
• Kotak estimates revenue of Rs 2,29,476 crore in the quarter under revenue (down 1% YoY, down 12.2% QoQ)
  
• Nuvama: Rs 2,21,482 crore, down 4% YoY and down 15% QoQ
  

The sequential decline is attributed to lower crude oil prices, seasonality in the O2C segment, and weaker E&P output.

3. EBITDA / EBITDA margin

Consolidated EBITDA is expected to rise across all brokerages, with margin improvement supported by higher contribution from core verticals.

• Yes Securities: EBITDA at ₹45,927 crore, with margin improvement of 158 bps YoY and 154 bps QoQ
  
• Kotak: ₹44,738 crore (+15.4% YoY, +2.1% QoQ)
  
• PhillipCapital: ₹44,592 crore (+13% YoY, +2% QoQ); margin at 18.2%, up from 16.7% YoY and 16.8% QoQ
  
• Nuvama: ₹45,020 crore (+16% YoY, +3% QoQ)
  

Margin expansion is attributed to higher contribution from high-growth, high-margin segments like Digital and Retail.

4. Segment highlights

O2C EBITDA is expected to post a strong recovery driven by improved refining margins and better petrochemical spreads.

• PhillipCapital: Rs 15,830 crore, up 21% YoY and up 5% QoQ
  
• Kotak: EBITDA up 19% YoY, 3.5% QoQ despite a refinery shutdown
  
• Nuvama: EBITDA to rise 19% YoY, 3% QoQ on stronger cracks and spreads
  

Refining throughput is expected at 17.8 MMT, with GRMs at $11.7/bbl, said Yes Securities).

Digital Services (Jio)
Strong subscriber additions and tariff hikes will drive robust digital growth.

• PhillipCapital: EBITDA at Rs 17,900 crore (+20% YoY, +4% QoQ), ARPU at Rs 211
  
• Kotak: EBITDA up 20% YoY and 3.7% QoQ
  
• Nuvama: 19% YoY and 3% QoQ EBITDA growth, ARPU up 15% YoY
  

Subscriber base is expected to hover around 496–497 million.

Retail

Retail continues to be a growth driver supported by store additions and better footfalls.

• Yes Securities: Revenue at Rs 91,380 crore, up 20.8% YoY and 3.1% QoQ while EBITDA margin is seen at 7.6%
  
• PhillipCapital: EBITDA at Rs 6,570 crore, which may go up 16% YoY while declining 2% QoQ
  
• Kotak & Nuvama: Retail EBITDA growth of 19–20% YoY, flat to mildly positive QoQ
  

E&P (Exploration & Production)

This segment is expected to drag overall performance due to lower KG-D6 production and weaker realizations.

• PhillipCapital: EBITDA at ₹4,500 crore (down 14% YoY, 13% QoQ)
  
• Nuvama: EBITDA to fall 10% YoY and 8% QoQ
  
• Kotak: EBITDA down 7.5% YoY and 6% QoQ
  

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