As the fifth and final Test between India and England approaches, all eyes are on the toss—an element that could very well decide the outcome of the series. With England leading 2-1 in the five-match series, the final Test at The Oval, starting July 31, is a must-win for India to draw the series. Meanwhile, England only needs a draw to clinch the series. India’s captain, Shubman Gill, has lost the toss in all four previous Tests, and if he fails to win it again at The Oval, it might heavily tilt the odds in England's favor.

The statistics from The Oval support the crucial importance of the toss. Since 2017, the venue has hosted eight Test matches, with the team batting first winning on six occasions. Batting first appears to provide a decisive advantage here. India’s most recent game at this ground was the World Test Championship (WTC) Final in 2023, where they suffered a heavy 209-run defeat at the hands of Australia—who had won the toss and batted first. This match highlighted the uphill task of chasing on this surface, especially in the fourth innings.

Though there is a glimmer of hope from 2021 when India, under Virat Kohli’s captaincy, managed to beat England by 157 runs at The Oval despite bowling first, that result stands out as an exception. The general trend at this venue clearly favors the side batting first. For Gill and Team India, winning the toss could provide the much-needed upper hand in this high-stakes encounter.

The pitch at The Oval is expected to assist fast bowlers early on but will gradually deteriorate from the second day onwards. Cracks on the surface will bring spinners into play, making batting in the fourth innings particularly challenging. Historically, India has played three Tests at The Oval since 2017—winning one and losing two. In contrast, England has won five of the seven Tests it has played at this ground during the same period, all while batting first. These patterns underline just how vital it is for Shubman Gill to finally win a toss if India is to keep its hopes alive.