Mumbai, Aug 2 (IANS) Brent crude oil prices are expected to rise to $80-$82 per barrel by the end of 2025, as tensions between the United States and Russia threaten to disrupt the global oil supply chain, analysts said on Saturday.

According to analysts, Brent Crude Oil October futures contract has a short-term target of $76 from $72.07. By the end of 2025, the Brent crude price could reach $80-$82 per barrel. The downside support and cap are at $69.

WTI Crude Oil September futures contract, now at $69.65, has a short-term target of $73. By the end of 2025, the WTI crude price could reach $76–$79. The downside support and cap are at $65.

Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump gave Russia 10-12 day deadline to end the war in Ukraine, failing which could result in additional sanctions and secondary tariffs on countries that trade with Russia, pushing oil prices higher.

Trump had earlier announced that the secondary tariffs could be as high as 500 per cent. Countries dependent on crude oil imports from Russia should now make the trade-off between a discounted price and a high tariff on exports to the US.

“This could lead to a dramatic shift in the oil market by reducing spare production capacity and causing a supply shock, which would diminish the surplus in the market until 2026,” said NS Ramaswamy Head of Commodities and CRM at Ventura Securities.

India's crude oil imports from Russia have significantly increased since the start of the Ukraine war. Before the war, Russian crude accounted for just 0.2 per cent of India's oil purchases, which are now between 35 and 40 per cent, making Russia India's top oil supplier.

Although US President Donald Trump stated that he wants to see lower oil prices, any significant increases in supply from the US will take time to reach the market. Tapping the proved oil reserves involves labour, capital and infrastructure, Ramaswamy said.

"Support from Saudi Arabia and select OPEC countries to fill this supply gap would also have a time lag, thus resulting in the near-term price rise. The impact of the oil balance would be significant and result in a deficit even if OPEC+ doesn’t go for any additional tranches of supply cuts," he added.

While the US-European Union trade deal last week has aided the oil market, geopolitical tensions will continue to pose asymmetric upside risks to oil prices.

Further, markets weighed on the potential build-up of US inventories and the upcoming interest rate decision, which saw strength in the US dollar putting some pressure on oil prices.

--IANS

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