India's wholesale inflation edged down to -0.58% in July from -0.13% in June, as per government data released on Thursday.
Negative rate of inflation in July, 2025 is primarily due to decrease in prices of food articles, mineral oils, crude petroleum & natural gas, manufacture of basic metals etc, said the government.
A Reuters poll of economists had projected wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation to contract further to -0.30% in July.
Despite uneven monsoons, a strong spring harvest has helped India keep a lid on food prices, extending the country's longest disinflationary streak in more than a decade.
India’s retail inflation dropped to an over eight-year low of 1.55% in July, aided by a sharp cooling in food prices, according to government data released this week, according to government data earlier this week. This was the first time in more than six years that inflation fell below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 2–6% tolerance band, and it marked the lowest year-on-year rate since June 2017.
ALSO READ: Retail inflation eases to over 8-year low of 1.55% in July aided by cooling food prices
While the geopolitical uncertainties have abated, global trade marked by incoming tariffs continues to weigh in, the RBI noted.
For the full year FY26, the RBI has projected headline inflation at 3.1%, lower than the 3.70% forecast made in June. However, the CPI is expected to stand at 4.9% in first quarter of FY27, breaching the apex bank's 4% target.
Quarter-wise estimates are: 2.1% in Q2, 3.1% in Q3-, and 4.4% in Q4. The central bank maintained that risks to the outlook are “evenly balanced.” The RBI MPC also noted that the core inflation has remained steady at 4%.
Independence Day 2025
Before Trump, British used tariffs to kill Indian textile
Bank of Azad Hind: When Netaji gave India its own currency
Swadeshi 2.0: India is no longer just a market, it’s a maker
A Reuters poll of economists had projected wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation to contract further to -0.30% in July.
Despite uneven monsoons, a strong spring harvest has helped India keep a lid on food prices, extending the country's longest disinflationary streak in more than a decade.
India’s retail inflation dropped to an over eight-year low of 1.55% in July, aided by a sharp cooling in food prices, according to government data released this week, according to government data earlier this week. This was the first time in more than six years that inflation fell below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 2–6% tolerance band, and it marked the lowest year-on-year rate since June 2017.
ALSO READ: Retail inflation eases to over 8-year low of 1.55% in July aided by cooling food prices
RBI’s inflation outlook
The central bank’s MPC last week said that inflation is estimated to go up during the last quarter of FY26, as food prices remain volatile, especially vegetable prices.While the geopolitical uncertainties have abated, global trade marked by incoming tariffs continues to weigh in, the RBI noted.
For the full year FY26, the RBI has projected headline inflation at 3.1%, lower than the 3.70% forecast made in June. However, the CPI is expected to stand at 4.9% in first quarter of FY27, breaching the apex bank's 4% target.
Quarter-wise estimates are: 2.1% in Q2, 3.1% in Q3-, and 4.4% in Q4. The central bank maintained that risks to the outlook are “evenly balanced.” The RBI MPC also noted that the core inflation has remained steady at 4%.
