Gold’s rally to nearly $4,000 an ounce has sparked a sharp divide among market watchers over whether the metal’s run still has legs or if a major correction is around the corner.
On Friday, spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,844.01 per ounce. The bullion hit an all-time high of $3,896.49 on Thursday and has risen 2% so far this week.
Gold Rally May Be Nearing A Peak
SEBI-registered analyst Rajneesh Sharma said that while gold remains in a long-term bull market, multiple technical indicators now point to overheating.
He noted that the relative strength index (RSI) is at around 90, suggesting an extreme overbought condition, while the gold-to-crude ratio has surged to 62.47, which is roughly three times its historical mean.
Sharma said gold may be nearing the end of Wave 3 in its Elliott Wave structure, which typically precedes a corrective phase. He identified key Fibonacci retracement levels at $3,439, $3,092, and $2,530, highlighting a likely pullback zone between $2,800 and $3,100 before the next uptrend that could carry prices toward $5,500–$6,000.
Markets May Outperform Gold Going Forward
SEBI-registered analyst Aakash Jajoo said gold has gained about 58% over the past 15 months, while equity markets have been largely flat during the same period — a divergence he expects to narrow.
He said that “assets tend to revert to their mean returns,” suggesting that gold’s strong outperformance may soon give way to an equity rebound.
Jajoo added that “all the macro signs are there” for a recovery and that “geopolitical uncertainty is already discounted.” He maintains internal targets for the Nifty 50 at 30,000 by Diwali 2027, citing expectations of improving market conditions.
What Is The Retail Mood?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Nippon India ETF Gold BeES was ‘bullish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.
Nippon India ETF Gold BeES has risen 50.6% so far in 2025.
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<
