The weather remains turbulent even after the monsoons leave.

Even though the southwest monsoon has officially departed from India, weather instability continues to persist in many parts of the country. The coming few days are expected to bring severe weather disturbances to large parts of the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a detailed warning in view of the activation of a powerful cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal. This cyclone is expected to intensify from today, which will have a widespread impact not only on the coastal areas but also on the remote interior states. Following this warning from the IMD, evacuation of local ports has been initiated in many coastal areas.

Center and timeframe of cyclone activity

According to the latest IMD bulletin, this active weather system is currently located over the Bay of Bengal, near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It is forecast to intensify further over the next 72 hours (by October 23).

Main Impact Period (Andaman-Nicobar):

• Strong winds: Wind speed reaching 40 to 50 kmph is expected over Andaman and Nicobar Islands on October 21, 22 and 23, which will completely disrupt maritime activities.
• Heavy Rainfall: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over the affected islands till October 23.

Disaster alert issued in 11 states of the country

The cyclonic storm will impact a large geographical area. The IMD has clarified that its effects will be felt from the southern peninsula to the northeast, central, western, and northern India. In total, 11 states and union territories could be directly affected:

1. South India: Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka.
2. Eastern and Central India: Odisha, Chhattisgarh.
3. Western India: Maharashtra, Goa.
4. North India: Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh.

Possible path of the cyclone and major warnings

The cyclone’s movement will begin in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and then turn towards Kerala. Its remnants, or low pressure, may then cause widespread weather disturbances over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and Himachal Pradesh.

1. Torrential rains in South Indian states (October 20 to 24):

• Affected states: Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh.
• Warning: These states are likely to experience heavy rainfall, lightning and storm with wind speed reaching 30 to 40 kmph during the next 5 days.

2. Special Lightning Alert (October 20 to 24):

The IMD has issued a special warning for four major states and union territories regarding lightning strikes, which can prove dangerous to life and property:

• Odisha
• Andaman and Nicobar Islands
• Madhya Pradesh
• Chhattisgarh

3. Weather disturbances in western and northern India:

• Western Region: There is a strong possibility of lightning and gusty winds over Konkan & Goa, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra during the next two days.
• Northern Mountainous Region: Thunderstorms and lightning may also be recorded in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

The general public and administration have been advised to keep a close watch on the latest updates issued by IMD and ensure all necessary safety measures.