Gold price today climbed higher on Thursday, supported by strong safe-haven demand as the prolonged US government shutdown and global trade tensions continued to rattle investor confidence.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD) was trading around $4,115 an ounce, up 0.40% for the day, while Gold futures (GC00) gained 1.1% to $4,111.50, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The yellow metal rebounded after Tuesday’s steep 5.7% drop—its largest single-day fall in over 12 years.
Markets are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, lending further support to bullion prices.
Investors are awaiting the release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday — a key inflation indicator that could shape near-term Fed policy. A hotter-than-expected CPI may strengthen the U.S. Dollar (USD) and briefly cap gold’s upside, while softer inflation would reinforce rate-cut expectations.
According to the daily chart, the constructive outlook for gold remains intact. The price is well-supported above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling ongoing bullish strength.
Geopolitical risks continue to underpin gold’s strength. The U.S.-China trade standoff and the prolonged Washington budget impasse are keeping investors cautious.
The White House is reportedly weighing export restrictions on software and high-tech goods to China, which could intensify trade friction. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is set to meet China’s Xi Jinping next week in South Korea, a meeting markets hope could ease tensions.
In addition, the Middle East conflict and Ukraine war remain key sources of global uncertainty, further supporting safe-haven flows into gold.
Gold continues to behave both as a growth and defensive asset in 2025. While short-term corrections may persist, analysts expect strong structural support from central bank demand, monetary easing, and global uncertainty.
Looking forward, gold’s longer-term rally is expected to continue supported by persistent inflation risks, central bank purchases, and structural geopolitical uncertainties, but near-term volatility will remain as markets assess trade negotiations, inflation data, and Fed actions.
Key support for gold lies near $4,000, while resistance stands around $4,140 to $4,330. The recent crash was not a signal of a reversed bull run but a correction, offering buying opportunities amid a fundamentally bullish backdrop.
Investors remain cautious ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, now delayed to Friday due to the shutdown. Softer inflation expectations boost the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with markets pricing in about a 97% chance of a 25 basis point reduction. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
US-China trade tensions continue to influence market sentiment. While recent talks and an upcoming high-level meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi, provide hope for easing tensions, trade war fears still sustain demand for gold as a safe haven. The US administration is also weighing new export restrictions on China, keeping volatility elevated.
Additional factors include strong retail and festival demand in major gold-consuming regions like India, where 24K gold prices hold steady around ₹12,508 per gram despite global market fluctuations. The prolonged US shutdown adds economic uncertainty, reinforcing gold's role as a store of value amid fiscal and geopolitical instability.
Technically, after a sharp rally earlier in October, gold has corrected somewhat but remains in a bullish longer-term trend supported by large central bank purchasing, geopolitical risks, and expectations of monetary easing. The recent correction was partly driven by profit-taking and a brief resurgence of the US dollar, which increases gold's cost for holders of other currencies.
Markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Expectations of lower interest rates continue to support gold, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. On the daily chart, gold remains above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling a constructive long-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57.25, suggesting steady bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance is seen at $4,140, the October 15 high. A breakout above this could drive prices toward $4,330 (October 16 high) and then $4,365, the upper Bollinger Band.
On the downside, key support lies near the $4,000 psychological mark. A sustained drop below the October 10 low of $3,947 could trigger further declines toward $3,838, the October 3 low.
However, optimism remains after President Donald Trump confirmed a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week in South Korea, which could ease some geopolitical pressure.
Other precious metals also advanced:
MUFG analyst Soojin Kim noted that a large ETF outflow earlier this week reflected “short-term profit-taking,” not a change in fundamental demand.
Investors will closely watch Friday’s US CPI data, which could determine near-term price direction. A hotter-than-expected print may strengthen the US dollar and briefly cap gold’s gains. Conversely, softer inflation could reinforce expectations of further Fed rate cuts—providing another leg up for the metal.
Even with profit-taking and short-term volatility, gold’s macro backdrop remains bullish—anchored by central bank accumulation, falling yields, and geopolitical risk.
Gold prices are rising due to renewed safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions grow and the U.S. government shutdown continues. Investors also expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which weakens the dollar and boosts gold.
2. Is this a real recovery or just a technical rebound?
Analysts suggest this is partly a technical rebound after heavy profit-taking. However, strong fundamental drivers—like rate-cut expectations and central bank demand—support a sustained uptrend if prices stay above $4,000.
3. What key levels should traders watch now?
Immediate resistance sits near $4,140, with major upside targets at $4,330 and $4,365. On the downside, support lies around $4,000 and $3,947. A drop below $3,947 could signal a deeper correction.
4. Will gold prices rise further in 2025?
If global uncertainties persist and the Fed eases policy, analysts expect gold could test $4,300–$4,400 later this year. Long-term trends remain bullish given inflation, rate cuts, and central bank accumulation.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD) was trading around $4,115 an ounce, up 0.40% for the day, while Gold futures (GC00) gained 1.1% to $4,111.50, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The yellow metal rebounded after Tuesday’s steep 5.7% drop—its largest single-day fall in over 12 years.
Markets are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, lending further support to bullion prices.
Investors are awaiting the release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday — a key inflation indicator that could shape near-term Fed policy. A hotter-than-expected CPI may strengthen the U.S. Dollar (USD) and briefly cap gold’s upside, while softer inflation would reinforce rate-cut expectations.
According to the daily chart, the constructive outlook for gold remains intact. The price is well-supported above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling ongoing bullish strength.
- RSI (14-day) stands near 57.25, staying above the neutral 50 line.
- Immediate resistance is at $4,140 (October 15 high).
- A break above this could open the door to $4,330 (October 16 high) and the Bollinger Band upper limit at $4,365.
- Support levels: $4,000 (psychological level), $3,947 (October 10 low), and $3,838 (October 3 low).
Geopolitical risks continue to underpin gold’s strength. The U.S.-China trade standoff and the prolonged Washington budget impasse are keeping investors cautious.
The White House is reportedly weighing export restrictions on software and high-tech goods to China, which could intensify trade friction. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is set to meet China’s Xi Jinping next week in South Korea, a meeting markets hope could ease tensions.
In addition, the Middle East conflict and Ukraine war remain key sources of global uncertainty, further supporting safe-haven flows into gold.
Gold continues to behave both as a growth and defensive asset in 2025. While short-term corrections may persist, analysts expect strong structural support from central bank demand, monetary easing, and global uncertainty.
Looking forward, gold’s longer-term rally is expected to continue supported by persistent inflation risks, central bank purchases, and structural geopolitical uncertainties, but near-term volatility will remain as markets assess trade negotiations, inflation data, and Fed actions.
Key support for gold lies near $4,000, while resistance stands around $4,140 to $4,330. The recent crash was not a signal of a reversed bull run but a correction, offering buying opportunities amid a fundamentally bullish backdrop.
Why is gold rising today?
Gold is rising today primarily due to safe-haven demand amid the ongoing US government shutdown and persistent geopolitical tensions. The precious metal is trading around $4,121, up about 1.38% for the day, supported strongly above its 100-day Exponential Moving Average and boosted by positive momentum from the Relative Strength Index near 57. Key resistance levels to watch are $4,140 and $4,330, with support at the critical $4,000 psychological level.Investors remain cautious ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, now delayed to Friday due to the shutdown. Softer inflation expectations boost the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with markets pricing in about a 97% chance of a 25 basis point reduction. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
US-China trade tensions continue to influence market sentiment. While recent talks and an upcoming high-level meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi, provide hope for easing tensions, trade war fears still sustain demand for gold as a safe haven. The US administration is also weighing new export restrictions on China, keeping volatility elevated.
Additional factors include strong retail and festival demand in major gold-consuming regions like India, where 24K gold prices hold steady around ₹12,508 per gram despite global market fluctuations. The prolonged US shutdown adds economic uncertainty, reinforcing gold's role as a store of value amid fiscal and geopolitical instability.
Technically, after a sharp rally earlier in October, gold has corrected somewhat but remains in a bullish longer-term trend supported by large central bank purchasing, geopolitical risks, and expectations of monetary easing. The recent correction was partly driven by profit-taking and a brief resurgence of the US dollar, which increases gold's cost for holders of other currencies.
Markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Expectations of lower interest rates continue to support gold, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. On the daily chart, gold remains above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling a constructive long-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57.25, suggesting steady bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance is seen at $4,140, the October 15 high. A breakout above this could drive prices toward $4,330 (October 16 high) and then $4,365, the upper Bollinger Band.
On the downside, key support lies near the $4,000 psychological mark. A sustained drop below the October 10 low of $3,947 could trigger further declines toward $3,838, the October 3 low.
Safe-haven boost amid global uncertainty
Gold’s recovery follows weeks of volatility fueled by Middle East tensions, Ukraine conflict concerns, and renewed US-China trade friction. Reports suggest the White House is considering export restrictions on software and technology to China, escalating fears of a trade war.However, optimism remains after President Donald Trump confirmed a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week in South Korea, which could ease some geopolitical pressure.
2025 performance and broader precious metals rally
Despite recent turbulence, gold remains up nearly 60% year-to-date in 2025, outperforming major commodities and indices. The surge has been largely driven by record central bank purchases, monetary easing expectations, and safe-haven inflows.Other precious metals also advanced:
- Silver (SI00) jumped 1.6% to $48.42.
- Platinum (PL00) gained 3.3% to $1,603.20.
Analyst insights: Correction, Not Collapse
“Tuesday’s sell-off was largely technical, driven by profit-taking after months of overbought conditions,” said Russell Shor, Senior Market Analyst at Tradu.com. “Despite the correction, the longer-term uptrend remains intact, supported by strong structural demand.”MUFG analyst Soojin Kim noted that a large ETF outflow earlier this week reflected “short-term profit-taking,” not a change in fundamental demand.
Investors will closely watch Friday’s US CPI data, which could determine near-term price direction. A hotter-than-expected print may strengthen the US dollar and briefly cap gold’s gains. Conversely, softer inflation could reinforce expectations of further Fed rate cuts—providing another leg up for the metal.
Even with profit-taking and short-term volatility, gold’s macro backdrop remains bullish—anchored by central bank accumulation, falling yields, and geopolitical risk.
FAQs:
1. Why is the gold price rising today?Gold prices are rising due to renewed safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions grow and the U.S. government shutdown continues. Investors also expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which weakens the dollar and boosts gold.
2. Is this a real recovery or just a technical rebound?
Analysts suggest this is partly a technical rebound after heavy profit-taking. However, strong fundamental drivers—like rate-cut expectations and central bank demand—support a sustained uptrend if prices stay above $4,000.
3. What key levels should traders watch now?
Immediate resistance sits near $4,140, with major upside targets at $4,330 and $4,365. On the downside, support lies around $4,000 and $3,947. A drop below $3,947 could signal a deeper correction.
4. Will gold prices rise further in 2025?
If global uncertainties persist and the Fed eases policy, analysts expect gold could test $4,300–$4,400 later this year. Long-term trends remain bullish given inflation, rate cuts, and central bank accumulation.
