U.S. stock market ended October 2025 with strong gains, led by a massive rally in technology shares. Amazon’s stock surged 9.6% after posting better-than-expected third-quarter results, pushing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.61% to close at 23,724.96, while the S&P 500 gained 0.26% to finish at 6,840.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 40.75 points, or 0.09%, to end at 47,562.87.
For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.7%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.2%, and the Dow rose 0.8%. October marked another milestone month — the S&P 500 gained 2.3%, the Nasdaq jumped 4.7%, and the Dow added 2.5%, extending its winning streak to six months, the longest since 2018.
As November begins, Wall Street is cautiously bullish. Historically, November has delivered an average 1.8% S&P 500 gain since 1950, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. With AI momentum strong, trade tensions easing, and rate cuts underway, many expect the rally to extend through the holidays—unless another credit shock derails the mood.
ALSO READ: Bitcoin price prediction: Bitcoin falls in October 2025 for first time since 2018 — Will November 2025 be the month of revenge for crypto?
Amazon reported $180.2 billion in Q3 revenue, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $177.9 billion. Its cloud arm, AWS, grew 20% year-over-year, marking its fastest expansion since 2022. CEO Andy Jassy credited strong AI adoption and infrastructure demand, calling AWS growth “broad-based and accelerating.”
The results sparked a surge in AI-linked names. Palantir rose 3%, Oracle gained 2.2%, and AMD soared, ending October with a 58% monthly gain, its best performance since 2001.
Beyond Amazon, consumer tech names also rallied. Netflix jumped 2.7% after announcing a 10-for-1 stock split, fueling speculation of future Dow inclusion. Tesla advanced 3.7%, extending its rebound as investors bet on stronger EV demand heading into year-end.
Social media and content firms joined the party. Reddit soared 14% on revenue of $585 million, up 68% year-over-year, while Getty Images rocketed 19% after sealing a long-term AI content deal with Perplexity AI.
As investors look ahead, analysts highlight three critical trends: potential credit shocks, job market weakness, and declining rent prices.
Economists warn that more corporate defaults could surface after the bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands, which led major banks like JPMorgan, UBS, and Jefferies to record write-offs.
Labor data is also flashing concern. The ADP report showed 32,000 job losses in September, and Amazon and UPS have announced major layoffs. Job growth averaged fewer than 30,000 positions per month between June and August — its weakest stretch since the pandemic era.
On housing, Apartment List data shows U.S. average rents have fallen for two straight months. Nearly 600,000 new apartments were completed in 2024, the most since 1974, easing shelter costs. Analysts see this as a positive signal for inflation, with Owner’s Equivalent Rent accounting for 26% of CPI and 44% of core services inflation.
Falling rents, coupled with steady rates, could give the Federal Reserve more room to maintain policy flexibility as 2026 approaches.
November 2025 Market Forecast: Three Big Shifts Investors Should Watch
US stock market November 2025 forecast is turning heads as Wall Street enters its historically strongest month. October closed with solid gains despite political gridlock and global uncertainty. The S&P 500 rose 2.3% in October, the Nasdaq jumped 4.7%, and the Dow advanced 2.5%, marking its sixth straight monthly gain—the longest winning streak since 2018. Year to date, the Dow is up 12%, the S&P 500 more than 16%, and the Nasdaq nearly 22%, driven by AI optimism, strong earnings, and easing trade tensions.
However, analysts warn that valuations remain stretched. The Market Cap to GDP ratio indicates stocks are still trading in extreme territory. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase cautioned about cracks forming in the credit system, citing recent bankruptcies like Tricolor Holdings and First Brands, which led to write-offs at major banks including UBS, JPMorgan, and Jefferies. The concern is that similar defaults may surface in November, especially within commercial real estate. Office CMBS delinquency rates have climbed above Great Financial Crisis peaks, and multifamily rates doubled to 6.5%. The $4.8 trillion U.S. CRE debt market could see more stress if borrowing costs remain high.
On the jobs front, hiring is slowing sharply. Between June and August, job growth averaged under 30,000 monthly. The September ADP report showed 32,000 job losses, with revisions turning August negative. Amazon and UPS announced major layoffs, cutting tens of thousands of positions. Economists warn job growth could turn negative in November, pressuring consumer confidence but increasing odds of another Fed rate cut before year-end.
Meanwhile, housing inflation may finally ease. Average U.S. rents fell for two straight months, according to Apartment List. Over 600,000 new apartments hit the market in 2024, the highest since 1974. Combined with reduced immigration and slowing demand, this is pulling rental prices lower—a welcome sign for inflation. Shelter costs make up 26% of CPI and 33% of core inflation. Falling rents could help bring headline inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% goal.
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s CEO, warned that “there’s never just one cockroach,” hinting more trouble could follow. He may be right. The credit ecosystem remains fragile after years of near-free money.
Between 2020 and 2022, the M2 money supply surged by nearly 40%, while mortgage rates fell below 3%—the lowest in U.S. history. This excess liquidity encouraged poor capital allocation and overleveraged investments.
When the Fed reversed course in March 2022 to fight the highest inflation since the 1970s, its rapid tightening triggered massive “unrealized losses” in bank bond portfolios, leading to collapses such as Silicon Valley Bank. Though the Fed stabilized markets with its Bank Term Funding Program, structural risks remain.
Commercial real estate could be the next flashpoint. CMBS delinquency rates on office loans now exceed levels seen during the 2008 crisis, while multifamily delinquencies have doubled to 6.5%, according to Trepp. Together, these sectors account for $3.5 trillion of the $4.8 trillion in outstanding U.S. CRE debt.
Private equity, business development companies, and highly leveraged firms could also face strain if the economy slows. A fresh credit event in November appears increasingly likely.
The government shutdown has delayed the official BLS report, but private-sector indicators paint a grim picture. Amazon recently announced more corporate layoffs despite solid sales, and UPS has cut 48,000 jobs in 2025 alone.
Federal workforce reductions are also beginning to show up in data, as buyouts under the government’s DOGE program take effect. If the shutdown continues into November, the employment hit will likely deepen.
The second major forecast for November: job growth will turn negative. While painful, that could pressure the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts to support its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
Much of that construction boom was concentrated in Sun Belt metros such as Austin, Phoenix, and Atlanta, where migration trends fueled demand during the pandemic years. But 2025’s “reverse migration” is now reshaping the landscape.
Rental households grew by more than one million between 2022 and 2024, driven largely by immigration. This year, however, over two million migrants have departed the U.S., sharply reducing rental demand.
The result: falling rents, weaker cash flows for REITs like AvalonBay (AVB) and Camden Property Trust (CPT), and pressure on smaller landlords.
There’s a silver lining — rent declines help ease inflation. Shelter costs make up 26% of CPI, 33% of core CPI, and 44% of core services CPI. Continued declines could push inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% target in the months ahead.
Investors may still ride the momentum through year-end, but 2026 could prove far more volatile. For now, all eyes will be on whether the Fed’s rate cuts can balance growth with stability — or whether the next financial “cockroach” is already crawling into view.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.61% to close at 23,724.96, while the S&P 500 gained 0.26% to finish at 6,840.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 40.75 points, or 0.09%, to end at 47,562.87.
For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.7%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.2%, and the Dow rose 0.8%. October marked another milestone month — the S&P 500 gained 2.3%, the Nasdaq jumped 4.7%, and the Dow added 2.5%, extending its winning streak to six months, the longest since 2018.
As November begins, Wall Street is cautiously bullish. Historically, November has delivered an average 1.8% S&P 500 gain since 1950, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. With AI momentum strong, trade tensions easing, and rate cuts underway, many expect the rally to extend through the holidays—unless another credit shock derails the mood.
ALSO READ: Bitcoin price prediction: Bitcoin falls in October 2025 for first time since 2018 — Will November 2025 be the month of revenge for crypto?
Amazon reported $180.2 billion in Q3 revenue, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $177.9 billion. Its cloud arm, AWS, grew 20% year-over-year, marking its fastest expansion since 2022. CEO Andy Jassy credited strong AI adoption and infrastructure demand, calling AWS growth “broad-based and accelerating.”
The results sparked a surge in AI-linked names. Palantir rose 3%, Oracle gained 2.2%, and AMD soared, ending October with a 58% monthly gain, its best performance since 2001.
Beyond Amazon, consumer tech names also rallied. Netflix jumped 2.7% after announcing a 10-for-1 stock split, fueling speculation of future Dow inclusion. Tesla advanced 3.7%, extending its rebound as investors bet on stronger EV demand heading into year-end.
Social media and content firms joined the party. Reddit soared 14% on revenue of $585 million, up 68% year-over-year, while Getty Images rocketed 19% after sealing a long-term AI content deal with Perplexity AI.
As investors look ahead, analysts highlight three critical trends: potential credit shocks, job market weakness, and declining rent prices.
Economists warn that more corporate defaults could surface after the bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands, which led major banks like JPMorgan, UBS, and Jefferies to record write-offs.
Labor data is also flashing concern. The ADP report showed 32,000 job losses in September, and Amazon and UPS have announced major layoffs. Job growth averaged fewer than 30,000 positions per month between June and August — its weakest stretch since the pandemic era.
On housing, Apartment List data shows U.S. average rents have fallen for two straight months. Nearly 600,000 new apartments were completed in 2024, the most since 1974, easing shelter costs. Analysts see this as a positive signal for inflation, with Owner’s Equivalent Rent accounting for 26% of CPI and 44% of core services inflation.
Falling rents, coupled with steady rates, could give the Federal Reserve more room to maintain policy flexibility as 2026 approaches.
November 2025 Market Forecast: Three Big Shifts Investors Should Watch
US stock market November 2025 forecast is turning heads as Wall Street enters its historically strongest month. October closed with solid gains despite political gridlock and global uncertainty. The S&P 500 rose 2.3% in October, the Nasdaq jumped 4.7%, and the Dow advanced 2.5%, marking its sixth straight monthly gain—the longest winning streak since 2018. Year to date, the Dow is up 12%, the S&P 500 more than 16%, and the Nasdaq nearly 22%, driven by AI optimism, strong earnings, and easing trade tensions.However, analysts warn that valuations remain stretched. The Market Cap to GDP ratio indicates stocks are still trading in extreme territory. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase cautioned about cracks forming in the credit system, citing recent bankruptcies like Tricolor Holdings and First Brands, which led to write-offs at major banks including UBS, JPMorgan, and Jefferies. The concern is that similar defaults may surface in November, especially within commercial real estate. Office CMBS delinquency rates have climbed above Great Financial Crisis peaks, and multifamily rates doubled to 6.5%. The $4.8 trillion U.S. CRE debt market could see more stress if borrowing costs remain high.
On the jobs front, hiring is slowing sharply. Between June and August, job growth averaged under 30,000 monthly. The September ADP report showed 32,000 job losses, with revisions turning August negative. Amazon and UPS announced major layoffs, cutting tens of thousands of positions. Economists warn job growth could turn negative in November, pressuring consumer confidence but increasing odds of another Fed rate cut before year-end.
Meanwhile, housing inflation may finally ease. Average U.S. rents fell for two straight months, according to Apartment List. Over 600,000 new apartments hit the market in 2024, the highest since 1974. Combined with reduced immigration and slowing demand, this is pulling rental prices lower—a welcome sign for inflation. Shelter costs make up 26% of CPI and 33% of core inflation. Falling rents could help bring headline inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% goal.
Credit risks rise as another corporate shock looms
After the surprise bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands, major lenders are counting the cost. JPMorgan Chase, UBS, and Jefferies Financial Group have disclosed significant write-offs tied to these failures.Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s CEO, warned that “there’s never just one cockroach,” hinting more trouble could follow. He may be right. The credit ecosystem remains fragile after years of near-free money.
Between 2020 and 2022, the M2 money supply surged by nearly 40%, while mortgage rates fell below 3%—the lowest in U.S. history. This excess liquidity encouraged poor capital allocation and overleveraged investments.
When the Fed reversed course in March 2022 to fight the highest inflation since the 1970s, its rapid tightening triggered massive “unrealized losses” in bank bond portfolios, leading to collapses such as Silicon Valley Bank. Though the Fed stabilized markets with its Bank Term Funding Program, structural risks remain.
Commercial real estate could be the next flashpoint. CMBS delinquency rates on office loans now exceed levels seen during the 2008 crisis, while multifamily delinquencies have doubled to 6.5%, according to Trepp. Together, these sectors account for $3.5 trillion of the $4.8 trillion in outstanding U.S. CRE debt.
Private equity, business development companies, and highly leveraged firms could also face strain if the economy slows. A fresh credit event in November appears increasingly likely.
U.S. job growth could turn negative
Labor data show a clear slowdown. From June to August, job growth averaged fewer than 30,000 new positions per month after revisions. The ADP September report recorded a loss of 32,000 jobs, while August was revised to a net decline of 3,000.The government shutdown has delayed the official BLS report, but private-sector indicators paint a grim picture. Amazon recently announced more corporate layoffs despite solid sales, and UPS has cut 48,000 jobs in 2025 alone.
Federal workforce reductions are also beginning to show up in data, as buyouts under the government’s DOGE program take effect. If the shutdown continues into November, the employment hit will likely deepen.
The second major forecast for November: job growth will turn negative. While painful, that could pressure the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts to support its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
Rents keep sliding as housing supply surges
The U.S. rental market is cooling fast. According to Apartment List, national average rents have declined for two straight months. Nearly 600,000 new apartments were completed in 2024 — the most since 1974.Much of that construction boom was concentrated in Sun Belt metros such as Austin, Phoenix, and Atlanta, where migration trends fueled demand during the pandemic years. But 2025’s “reverse migration” is now reshaping the landscape.
Rental households grew by more than one million between 2022 and 2024, driven largely by immigration. This year, however, over two million migrants have departed the U.S., sharply reducing rental demand.
The result: falling rents, weaker cash flows for REITs like AvalonBay (AVB) and Camden Property Trust (CPT), and pressure on smaller landlords.
There’s a silver lining — rent declines help ease inflation. Shelter costs make up 26% of CPI, 33% of core CPI, and 44% of core services CPI. Continued declines could push inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% target in the months ahead.
Looking ahead to November
October’s rally showed the market’s ability to defy bad news. But as the new month begins, three trends stand out: credit risks are mounting, job creation is stalling, and housing costs are falling.Investors may still ride the momentum through year-end, but 2026 could prove far more volatile. For now, all eyes will be on whether the Fed’s rate cuts can balance growth with stability — or whether the next financial “cockroach” is already crawling into view.
