The 10-year tenure of the 7th Pay Commission is going to end on December 31, 2025. After this, everyone’s eyes are fixed on the 8th Central Pay Commission. There are two things that are being discussed the most with this commission – when will the recommendations be implemented and how much the salary of the employees can increase due to the new fitment factor.

Now the Terms of Reference (ToR) have been finalized and the committee headed by Justice Ranjana Desai has started the work. This has increased the enthusiasm among central government employees and pensioners regarding salary hike, new basic pay and arrears. Although the exact date of implementation has yet to be officially announced, most estimates say it could happen as early as 2028 rather than January 2026.

However, this delay could mean huge arrears, especially if the recommendations were implemented with retrospective effect. So how much arrears can an employee actually get? Let us understand it in a simple way.

What is the current status of 8th Pay Commission?

The tenure of the Seventh Pay Commission ends on December 31, 2025. To maintain continuity, the government has notified the 8th Pay Commission and approved its ToR. The commission has been given 18 months to submit its report.

Going by past trends, after the report comes, it takes 3-6 months for the government to examine, approve and notify the recommendations. That means the 8th Pay Commission may be implemented in late 2027 or early 2028.

Although no official date has been announced yet, reports from many experts and major financial publications mention a deadline of 2028.

What is the expected salary increase?

Market experts like Ambit Capital estimate that the 8th Pay Commission may increase the salary and pension of central employees by about 30-34 percent.

The major reason for this increase is the fitment factor – this is the number used to revise the basic salary. According to reports, the fitment factor can range from 1.83 to 2.46, and many estimates are around 2.28.

Like previous pay commissions, dearness allowance (DA) is expected to be merged with basic pay before the new structure is implemented.

What is the change in the salary of an employee with minimum basic salary?

Suppose, the current basic salary of a Level-1 employee is Rs 18,000.

Currently, his gross salary after adding DA and other allowances is around Rs 35,000 per month.

If there is a 34 percent increase in basic salary from the 8th Pay Commission, then the new gross salary will be around Rs 46,900 per month.

That means an increase of about Rs 11,900 every month.

How much arrears will be received if it is implemented in 2028?

If the 8th Pay Commission is implemented in January 2028 and given retrospective effect from January 2026, employees will get 24 months of arrears.

Monthly increase: Rs 11,900 Period of arrears: 24 months Total arrears: Rs 2.85 lakh

In this way, an employee with minimum basic salary may get arrears of around Rs 2.8-3 lakh just from the salary change.

The amount of arrears for employees with higher salary levels will be much more than this.

Why arrears so important with salary increase?

If we look at history, arrears have been the biggest financial benefit of government employees after the implementation of Pay Commission. The delay in implementation is a bit frustrating, but the backdated payment compensates for that. Despite the early formation of the Seventh Pay Commission, when it was implemented in 2016, employees received huge arrears.

What else will change in the Eighth Pay Commission?

The ToR of the Eighth Pay Commission is not limited to just basic salary revision. This will also include:

– Allowances like HRA and transport allowance – Pension and DA relief structure – Gratuity and retirement benefits – Salary equality and incentive structure

All these changes will be final only after the report of the commission and the approval of the government.