Elon Musk: In an effort to curtail Western space dominance, which has aided Ukraine in combat, two NATO-member intelligence agencies believe Russia is creating a new anti-satellite weapon that would target Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation with catastrophic circling clouds of shrapnel.

According to intelligence reports obtained by The Associated Press, the so-called “zone-effect” weapon would attempt to bombard Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets, possibly rendering several satellites inoperable simultaneously while also running the risk of causing catastrophic collateral damage to other orbiting systems.

According to analysts who haven’t seen the results, they don’t think such a weapon could function without producing catastrophic havoc in space for businesses and nations that depend on thousands of satellites in orbit for military, communications, and other essential purposes, such as China and Russia.

According to observers, such consequences, which may include dangers to its own space systems, would deter Moscow from installing or using such a weapon.

“I don’t believe it. Victoria Samson, a space-security expert with the Secure World Foundation, which is a nonprofit group located in Colorado, remarked, “I really don’t,” in reference to the organization’s yearly examination of anti-satellite technologies. “To be honest, I would be shocked if they did something like that.”

However, Brig. Gen. Christopher Horner, the head of the Canadian military’s Space Division, said that given earlier U.S. accusations that Russia has also been seeking an indiscriminate nuclear, space-based weapon, such Russian activity cannot be ruled out.

“I can’t claim to have received training on that kind of system. However, it’s not unrealistic,” he said. “I wouldn’t find it shocking that something just short of that, but equally damaging, is within their wheelhouse of development if the reporting on the nuclear weapons system is accurate and they’re willing to develop that and go to that end.”

AP inquiries seeking comment from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov were not answered. President Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow has no plans to use nuclear space weapons, and Russia has previously urged the UN to work to prevent the deployment of weapons into orbit.

There would be many targets for the weapon.

As long as the services involved were kept anonymous and the news outlet was unable to independently confirm the results of the intelligence findings, the AP was granted access to the information.

Email queries were not answered by the U.S. Space Force. “We can inform you that Russia has, in recent years, been multiplying irresponsible, dangerous, and even hostile actions in space,” the French military’s Space Command told the AP in a statement saying it was unable to comment on the results.

The results show that Russia considers Starlink in particular to be a serious danger. Ukraine has survived Russia’s full-scale invasion, which is already in its fourth year, thanks in large part to the hundreds of low-orbiting satellites.

Starlink’s high-speed internet connection is used by citizens and government officials in areas where Russian attacks have impacted communications, as well as by Ukrainian military for battlefield communications, weapon targeting, and other purposes.

Commercial satellites used by Ukraine’s military might be legal targets, Russian officials have frequently warned. Russia said this month that it has deployed the S-500, a new ground-based missile system that can strike targets in low orbit.

According to the intelligence data, the new weapon under preparation will target many Starlinks simultaneously, with pellets perhaps delivered by as-yet-unlaunched formations of tiny satellites, in contrast to a missile that Russia tested in 2021 to destroy a defunct Cold War-era satellite.

According to Horner of Canada, it is difficult to see how pellet clouds might be controlled to just hit Starlink, and the debris from such an assault may quickly spiral out of hand.

He responded, “You blow up a box full of BBs.” By doing so, all Starlink satellites and other satellites in a similar orbital domain would be eliminated, “blanketing an entire orbital regime.” And that, in my opinion, is the most concerning aspect.

The system could just be experimental.

The results obtained by the AP did not specify when Russia would be able to implement such a system, whether it has been tested, or how far advanced research is thought to be.

According to an official familiar with the results and other relevant intelligence that the AP did not review, the system is still under construction and details about the anticipated deployment date are too sensitive to disclose. The official discussed the nonpublic results on the condition of anonymity.

According to Samson, such Russian study could only be experimental.

It’s an intriguing thinking experiment, and some scientists could decide to construct something similar because they believe, “Maybe at some point we can get our government to pay for it,” she added.

Samson hinted that the prospect of a purportedly emerging Russian threat may potentially be an attempt to provoke a global reaction.

“Those who advocate these ideas frequently do so because they want the U.S. side to construct something similar, or … to justify increased spending on counterspace capabilities or using it for a more hawkish approach on Russia,” she said.

Samson said, “I’m not saying that this is what’s happening with this.” “However, people have been known to take these absurd arguments and use them.”

Small pellets can be unnoticed.

According to intelligence reports, the pellets would be so tiny—just millimeters across—that they would be impossible for space-based and ground-based systems that look for space objects to identify, making it difficult to assign credit for any strike on Moscow.

If “the pellets are not trackable, that complicates things,” but “people would figure it out,” according to Clayton Swope, a space security and weapons specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a security and policy think tank located in Washington, D.C.

“I suppose you could figure things out if satellites start winking out with damage,” he added.

It’s unclear how much damage small pellets might do. A Chinese spacecraft intended to return three astronauts to Earth was damaged in November after a suspected hit by a tiny piece of debris.

Swope said that as solar panels are likely the most delicate component of satellites, they would likely sustain the greatest damage. “However, that would be sufficient to harm a satellite and most likely bring it offline.”

A “weapon of fear” might cause mayhem.

Pellets and debris from such an assault would eventually return to Earth, potentially harming other orbiting systems as they do so, according to experts.

The orbits of Starlink are situated at 340 miles (550 kilometers) above Earth. According to Swope, both the International Space Station and China’s Tiangong space station operate at lower orbits, “so both would face risks.”

According to Swope, Moscow could be able to threaten its enemies without ever using such a weapon because to the turmoil it might create in space.

He said, “It certainly feels like a weapon of fear, searching for some sort of deterrence or something.”

The disadvantages of an indiscriminate pellet weapon, according to Samson, might deter Russia from taking such a course.

“They’ve put a lot of time, money, and human resources into becoming a space power,” she said.

According to Samson, using such a weapon “would effectively cut off space for them as well.” “I doubt that they would be prepared to make such a sacrifice.”