Gold prices could witness an extraordinary rally over the next few years, potentially pushing rates in India beyond ₹3 lakh per 10 grams, according to a bold forecast by renowned US economist and market strategist Ed Yardeni. His long-term outlook suggests that gold may climb to $10,000 per ounce in the international market by 2029, driven by a combination of monetary policy shifts, investor demand for safe-haven assets, and structural changes in global markets.
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, believes that gold is far from done with its upward journey. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, he said that the precious metal could see a massive surge by the end of this decade. His projection of $10,000 per ounce aligns with his broader “Roaring 2020s” thesis, which anticipates strong performance across multiple asset classes, including equities and commodities.
Currently, spot gold prices in the international market are hovering around $4,410 per ounce. This level itself marks a historic high, with prices touching record territory on December 22. If gold were to rise from $4,410 to $10,000 per ounce, it would represent a gain of roughly 127%, effectively more than doubling from current levels.
Several factors are supporting gold’s strength in the global market. One of the primary drivers is the growing expectation that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the future. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors.
In addition, gold continues to benefit from its status as a safe-haven asset. Persistent geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and concerns about currency stability have kept investor interest strong. A relatively weaker US dollar has also played a role, as gold becomes cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
So far in 2025, gold prices have already risen by nearly 67%, underlining the strength of the current rally and reinforcing long-term bullish expectations.
The implications of such a global surge could be dramatic for Indian investors. At present, gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) are around ₹1,35,890 per 10 grams. If international prices climb by about 127% by 2029, domestic gold rates could rise to approximately ₹3.08 lakh per 10 grams, assuming currency trends remain broadly stable.
Such levels would mark an unprecedented milestone for the Indian gold market, where the yellow metal already holds cultural, emotional, and financial significance.
Yardeni argues that gold continues to play a crucial role in a diversified investment portfolio. According to him, history shows that when gold enters a strong rally, it often exceeds expectations and sustains momentum longer than most investors anticipate.
He also challenged the notion that gold and equities always move in opposite directions. While short-term movements may differ, Yardeni noted that over longer periods, gold and stock markets have often performed well together. This is why he views gold not just as a crisis hedge, but as a solid long-term investment asset.
Beyond gold, Yardeni remains optimistic about the US equity market. He expects the S&P 500 index to potentially reach 7,700 by the end of 2026, implying around a 10% upside from current levels. While achieving double-digit returns for four consecutive years is challenging, he believes it is not impossible under supportive conditions.
He also pointed to rising volatility in artificial intelligence-related stocks. Intense competition among major tech companies is leading to higher capital expenditure, which could eventually broaden gains across the technology sector rather than concentrating them in a few mega-cap firms.
On India, Yardeni believes that 2025 could be a year of consolidation following several years of strong equity performance. However, he sees better opportunities emerging in 2026, especially if trade negotiations between India and the US progress positively. He also made it clear that, between India and China, his preference for investment lies with India due to its stronger legal and corporate governance framework.
At the same time, Yardeni cautioned against mixed global policy signals. He warned that combining tight monetary policy with aggressive fiscal stimulus is like driving a car with one foot on the brake and the other on the accelerator—a strategy that can create long-term economic instability.
While the $10,000-per-ounce gold forecast is ambitious, it highlights the growing confidence among global strategists in gold’s long-term potential. If this prediction plays out, Indian gold prices crossing ₹3 lakh may no longer be a distant dream, but a reality investors should start preparing for.
