This article was originally published in Rest of World, which covers technology’s impact outside the West.

In recent months, there has been frenzied debate about whether the US government’s unfavorable outlook toward immigration would curtail foreign student enrollments in US universities and scale back overseas talent in American tech companies. Many predicted that these measures would hit candidates of Indian origin the hardest.

India is the source of the largest cohort of international students in the US. The world’s most populous country is also by far the largest beneficiary of the H-1B system. Seven out of 10 of all new H-1Bs are granted to applicants born in India. Initial reports seemed to confirm the suspicion that Indians would take the biggest hit.

In October, The New York Times reported that the number of international students arriving in the US in 2025 fell by 19% compared to last year – the largest decline on record outside of the Covid-19 pandemic. But subsequent reporting in The Economist noted that this figure may be misleading. New arrivals were fewer than before because many returning students from the previous term did not leave the US in the first place, concerned that if they left for the summer break, they might not be allowed back in the fall. Indian student enrollments, far from declining, were up 10% over the...

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