As the war in Ukraine grinds on and relations with the West remain frozen, Russia has increasingly leaned on advanced strategic weapons to project power far beyond the battlefield. In late 2025, Moscow publicly highlighted a series of missile and unmanned systems that it claims are designed to shorten warning times, and restore what the Kremlin calls strategic balance. While Russian state media has amplified these capabilities, several key elements, including deployments, tests, and official confirmations, have been independently acknowledged by Western governments and monitoring agencies, making the developments impossible for NATO planners to ignore.

Hypersonic shock: Oreshnik enters operational service

The most immediate concern for NATO is Russia’s deployment of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile system to neighboring Belarus. Russian and Belarusian officials confirmed in late December 2025 that multiple mobile launchers are now active on Belarusian territory, placing large parts of Eastern and Central Europe within striking distance. The deployment was accompanied by publicized readiness drills, signaling that the system is not merely symbolic but intended for real-world deterrence.

Oreshnik is described by Russian officials as capable of hypersonic speeds exceeding Mach 10, with advanced maneuverability designed to evade existing missile defense systems. It can reportedly carry either conventional or nuclear payloads, and Russian sources claim it supports multiple warheads capable of striking different targets in a single launch. With this technology, even a partially successful hypersonic capability significantly complicates NATO’s early-warning and interception systems.

Why Belarus changes the equation for NATO

Basing hypersonic missiles in Belarus is particularly destabilizing from a NATO perspective. The geographic proximity to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Germany dramatically reduces reaction time for allied air and missile defenses. Military planners warn that hypersonic weapons compress decision-making windows to minutes, raising the risk of miscalculation during a crisis and increasing pressure on automated or pre-delegated defense responses.

This development can be seen as a deliberate escalation that blurs the line between deterrence and coercion, especially at a time when diplomatic channels remain fragile.

Nuclear-powered reach: The Burevestnik Missile

Beyond hypersonics, Russia continues to promote the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, a system that has drawn particular concern from arms-control experts. Powered by a miniature nuclear reactor, Burevestnik is designed, at least in theory, to have virtually unlimited range, allowing it to approach targets from unpredictable directions and remain airborne for extended periods.

Although Russia has claimed testing progress, independent verification of successful long-range operational flights remains limited. Even so, US and NATO analysts view the concept itself as destabilizing. A nuclear-powered missile challenges existing detection and interception models and raises environmental and safety concerns, especially given past reports of radiation incidents linked to testing.

Poseidon: The underwater nuclear threat

Another system frequently highlighted in Russian strategic messaging is Poseidon, a nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle often described as a “doomsday torpedo.” Designed to travel at great depths and high speeds, Poseidon is intended to evade traditional anti-submarine defenses and threaten naval bases, carrier strike groups, and coastal infrastructure.

Russian officials have explicitly linked Poseidon to strategic deterrence, portraying it as a weapon that could deliver catastrophic damage to an adversary’s coastal regions. Western experts remain divided over its true operational readiness but agree that, if fielded as claimed, Poseidon would represent a novel and dangerous category of nuclear delivery system outside traditional arms-control frameworks.

Sarmat and the backbone of nuclear deterrence

While newer systems capture headlines, Russia’s strategic posture still rests on its intercontinental missile force, particularly the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM. Designed to replace aging Soviet-era missiles, Sarmat is capable of carrying heavy payloads and multiple warheads over intercontinental distances, reinforcing Moscow’s nuclear deterrent against the US homeland.

Sarmat underscores that Russia’s approach is not limited to experimental weapons. Instead, Moscow is modernizing across the entire nuclear spectrum, from hypersonic and unmanned systems to traditional ICBMs, ensuring redundancy and survivability in its deterrent forces.

What this means for the United States and NATO

For Washington and NATO, these developments pose serious strategic challenges. Hypersonic missiles undermine existing ballistic missile defense concepts, nuclear-powered systems strain arms-control regimes, and forward deployments shorten warning times. Together, they force allied governments to reconsider missile defense investments, early-warning architectures, and crisis-management doctrines.

At the same time, taking all Russian claims at face value must be cautioned. Developing, deploying, and sustaining systems like Burevestnik and Poseidon at scale involves enormous technical and financial hurdles. Distinguishing between genuine capability and strategic signaling remains a core task for US and NATO intelligence services.