Japan's first female leader is popular with voters. She has now called for early elections to leverage their approval. The move could bolster her position, but it carries risks.Sanae Takaichi hates Japan's hot summers and especially the humid heat of the campaign trail between July and September. But the weather is not the only reason Japan's prime minister has called for parliamentary elections in snowy February — the first winter elections in Japan in 36 years. The main impetus is her soaring popularity with voters. Weekend opinion polls show her with a 78% approval rating. Takaichi, who replaced Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister in late October, wants to cement her popularity at the ballot box. Victory could either help her pad the current razor-thin majority she has with her new coalition partner, the Japanese Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin no Kai), or perhaps even restore the absolute majority that her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost in the 2024 general election. Prior to the decision, Takaichi attempted but failed to convince the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) to join the governing coalition. Dreams of regaining an LDP majority If the LDP can regain the majority, Takaichi, who leads her country and her party, would no longer be dependent on opposition support to pass budgets and legislation. It would also allow her to build a network of loyal parliamentarians within the party. "It's all quite daring," said Japan expert Axel Klein of the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany. "But Takaichi might be betting that her popularity could render her new coalition partner Ishin superfluous." On Wednesday, the 64-year-old prime minister informed LDP leaders that she intended to dissolve parliament when its regular session is called to order on January 23. Takaichi said she will provide more details on Monday. Japanese media report that the vote will likely take place on February 8 or 15. Investors have already signaled their approval for the plan: The benchmark Nikkei 225 index shot to a record high in expectation that a Takaichi win would make it easier for her to implement her "proactive" fiscal policies and the increased government spending it would bring. Public image as a decisive woman One reason for her popularity may be that she is the first woman ever to serve in the nation's highest political office. Another is that she has an easy to understood plan for revitalizing Japan's economy and appears to be working hard to put it in place. She did away with a special gasoline tax and used expedited budgetary measures to finance energy and fuel subsidies. Tax cuts are slated for this year. The fact that she remains unyielding to punitive economic pressure from Beijing in her vow to stand with Taiwan in the event of a military conflict with China appears to be popular, too. That's not to mention the fresh new wind she has brought to Japanese politics, historically the domain of elderly men. On Tuesday, she and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung played drums together at an official summit. "The image of a leader, a decisive woman, heading the country could distract from an objective debate over her record since taking office," says Japan expert Klein. "Social media image campaigns are more likely to motivate voters than dry facts." Fateful coalition collapse spawns new political threat That said, analysts point to two risks facing Takaichi. The first is that her popularity has yet to rub off on her party. The LDP, mired in scandal over secret accounts full of illicit campaign funds as well as the party's ties to South Korea's Unification Church, has been losing support among voters. Unification Church members helped the LDP campaign during the 2024 election while party leaders chose to ignore the political donations scandal. In the three months since Takaichi took office, the party has maintained a stagnant 30% approval rating in opinion polls. The second risk became clear on Thursday, when Japan's two largest opposition parties announced that they were forming the Centrist Reform Union. Composed of the larger Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), a social democratic outfit, and the moderate-liberal Komeito party, the plan is to campaign under one banner for the February election. The duo seeks to present itself as a centrist alternative to Takaichi's conservative government. CDP and Komeito oppose changing Japan's traditionally pacifist constitution. They are skeptical of nuclear energy as well. Unlike the business-friendly LDP, which says they stand for an "economy that respects the people" and for expanding the welfare state to benefit the disadvantaged. They are also in favor of changing Japan's marriage laws to allow more flexibility regarding the choice of surnames. The interesting part of this new development is that for 26 years Komeito was the LDP's coalition partner. Komeito abandoned the LDP in October, bringing down the coalition over differences it had with Takaichi on party finance and security policy. Historically, the larger LDP profited from successful electoral agreements with the junior partner. In precincts with no Komeito candidates, the party's Soka Gakkai Buddhist supporters were told to vote LDP. And the LDP, in turn, instructed its voters to make sure to cast their ballots for Komeito in precincts with proportional representation. The Japanese newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun estimates the arrangement added 25 seats to the LDP's overall result during the last election. "Lack of support from Komeito could cost the LDP a lot of seats if Takaichi's 'shine' can't mobilize other voter blocs to compensate for the loss of its old coalition partner," warned Klein. This article was translated from German.