India's demographic shift is happening. By 2030, the country's expected to have about 190 mn senior citizens. By 2050, that number could touch 350 mn. This rapid ageing will raise the dependency ratio and place mounting pressure on families, healthcare systems and urban infra - or, the citizenry will feel the mounting pressure of it. Yet, it also represents a significant economic opportunity, one that sits at the intersection of employment generation, skilling and human capital development.

In her budget announcement on Sunday, Nirmala Sitharaman outlined three kartavyas, the second focusing on building people's capacity as partners in growth. By positioning care within this growth framework, the budget moves the conversation from merely acknowledging demographic change to actively preparing the workforce and systems needed to respond at scale. This approach aligns with the Economic Survey's observation that population ageing is shaping India's emerging 'longevity economy'.

The senior-care sector - senior residences, assisted living, transition care, curated products, mental-wellness services and community-engagement models - is expanding steadily, though unevenly. Estimated at $10-15 bn, it could potentially cross $30-50 bn over the next decade. Within this, organised senior-living is projected to grow nearly 300%, from about $2 bn today to about $8 bn by 2030.

Unlocking this growth, however, is not simply a matter of adding facilities. It requires coordination across healthcare providers, real-estate developers, policymakers, financial institutions and technology innovators. Conversation around ageing is evolving - from building retirement housing to engineering care ecosystems.

Seniors are not a monolith. Their needs vary widely depending on mobility, medical conditions, financial independence and social preferences. 'With life expectancy now around 73 years, nearly 70% of seniors living with at least one comorbidity, and an estimated 12-15% living alone, demand is increasingly shifting toward senior-living formats that integrate services and care, rather than real estate alone,' according to Tara Singh Vachani, executive chairperson, Antara Senior Care, and vice-chairperson, Max India.

The budget's announcement to train 1.5 lakh caregivers in a single year - through National Skills Qualifications Framework programmes - acknowledges that care infrastructure depends as much on people and skills as on buildings. Emphasis on multi-skilled caregivers - trained not only in core care but also in wellness, allied health and assistive-device operations - recognises the service gap that continues to constrain the sector.

Policy momentum has been building over years. National Policy for Senior Citizens and National Programme for Health Care of the Elderly signal that senior care is now national priority. Some states like Maharashtra and Haryana have introduced guidelines and minimum standards for senior-living facilities, while building codes reference universal accessibility, barrier-free design and age-friendly infrastructure.

But structural challenges persist. While caregivers remain in short supply, the senior-living sector itself is highly fragmented. Regulations are largely state-driven, resulting in wide variations in approval processes, medical-integration norms and grievance mechanisms. For families, this creates uncertainty. For investors and operators, it makes scaling high-quality models nationally costly and unpredictable.

More critically, senior care is still not formally recognised as a standalone sector. Without such recognition, access to dedicated funding, specialised workforce development and structured PPPs remains limited. The result is a market with strong potential but uneven credibility.

Compounding this is India's continued tendency to view senior-living primarily through a real-estate lens, even as global models regulate it as a services-led ecosystem. Building codes alone cannot guarantee safety or dignity. Dementia-friendly design, on-site clinical care, trained geriatric staff, emergency protocols and transparent grievance-redressal mechanisms are equally critical, but rarely mandated in a uniform manner.

Targeted policy incentives could accelerate both scale and inclusivity. Integrating WHO's Age-Friendly Cities framework into National Building Code, offering higher FSI (floor space index) allowances, stamp duty waivers and concessional priority lending for compliant projects would shift developer interest. Linking incentives to recognised accreditations - such as NABH (National Accreditation Board for Hospitals & Healthcare Providers) for care standards and IGBC (Indian Green Building Council) or GRIHA (Green Rating for Integrated Habitat Assessment) for age-friendly design - could also introduce measurable quality benchmarks.

Equally important is enabling ageing in place. Telehealth, remote-monitoring devices and assistive technologies can help seniors remain independent for longer, while reducing pressure on hospitals and families. Community-based wellness programmes, peer networks and recreational centres can further support physical and mental well-being, often at a fraction of the cost of institutional care.

India needs a unified, services-oriented regulatory architecture, not a rigid, centralised regime, that standardises licensing, safety norms, staffing ratios, care protocols, quality audits and grievance redressal, while allowing states flexibility in execution.

Senior care should be viewed not only as a welfare concern but also as a structural component of the economy.