Recent military operations by US and Israeli forces have reportedly struck deep within Iranian territory, aiming at high-ranking officials such as Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian. According to Iranian media, as cited by the AP, one of the initial explosions occurred close to the supreme leader's office. Reports from Reuters indicate that the 86-year-old Khamenei was not present at the site and had been relocated to a secure area outside of Tehran. The strikes targeted various military installations, government facilities, and intelligence hubs, coinciding with escalating tensions between the US and Iran regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions.

In retaliation, Iran launched missile strikes against US positions throughout the Middle East. Subsequent reports from Iranian media confirmed that both Khamenei and Pezeshkian were unharmed, although they did not make immediate public appearances following the attacks. Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has experienced only one leadership change, with Khamenei at the helm since 1989. His potential loss of power or death could signify a pivotal moment for the nation, yet there are currently no verified indications of significant defections within the leadership.

A recent analysis from a US think tank has proposed several individuals as potential successors to Khamenei:

• Reza Pahlavi: The son of Iran’s last monarch, he advocates for a secular and democratic government from abroad. He has expressed support for the US strikes, claiming the Iranian regime is in decline, though his domestic support remains uncertain.

• Maryam Rajavi: Leader of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), she has proposed a democratic transition plan and called for military support from Iran's armed forces to the populace, urging regime officials to surrender. Her 10-point agenda includes abolishing the IRGC, separating religion from state, ending capital punishment, safeguarding women's rights, and facilitating free elections.

• Mohsen Qomi: A close advisor to Khamenei, he has long been part of the supreme leader’s inner circle and is regarded as a loyalist.

• Alireza Arafi: A member of both the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, he leads Iran’s seminary network and wields considerable religious influence.

• Mohsen Araki: A senior cleric with strong connections to religious institutions, he is well-respected in traditional religious communities.

• Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei: The head of the judiciary, he has extensive experience in security and intelligence roles, maintaining strong ties to the security apparatus.

• Hashem Hosseini Bushehri: The Friday prayer leader of Qom and a member of the Assembly of Experts, he is well-connected within clerical circles.

Experts suggest that none of these candidates enjoy universal backing, and Iran lacks a clear successor to Khamenei.

The Assembly of Experts, composed of 88 clerics serving eight-year terms, is responsible for selecting Iran’s supreme leader. Only clerics approved by the Guardian Council can participate in this assembly. When a vacancy arises, the Assembly convenes privately to elect a new leader, evaluating candidates based on their religious qualifications, political experience, and loyalty to the Islamic Republic. This process is largely controlled by insiders, with ordinary citizens having no direct voting rights. The IRGC plays a significant role behind the scenes; its unity is crucial in determining the next supreme leader. A division within the IRGC could lead to uncertainty or chaos in the selection process.

(With inputs from various news sources)