Mortgage rates in the US went up on Monday after air strikes linked to the United States and Israel on Iran pushed oil prices higher and increased inflation fears. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose by 13 basis points to 6.12%, moving away from a 3.5-year low, as per Mortgage News Daily via Yahoo Finance. Mortgage rates usually depend on the US economy, inflation trends, and demand for mortgage-backed securities.
Big global events like wars can suddenly move mortgage rates up or down for a short time. Mortgage rates closely follow the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which is normally a safe investment during crises. Usually during conflicts, investors buy bonds, which lowers yields and mortgage rates. But this time the opposite happened because oil prices jumped sharply. Oil prices rose nearly 6% to about $71 per barrel by midday Monday.
Investors worried higher oil could increase inflation, so they avoided Treasury bonds and moved money into gold. Because of this, the 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 11 basis points to 4.05%. Mortgage rates had actually been slowly falling through most of last year and early 2026. Monday’s jump pushed rates back to levels seen in January and February. Mortgage expert Jimmy Vercellino said it is “never fun” to see rates rise, as quoted by Yahoo Finance.
History shows rates often fall later during wars, even if they first spike. Examples include the 2003 Iraq war, the 2020 killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, and the 2023 Gaza war, where rates later dropped. Experts say typically wars first cause oil prices and mortgage rates to jump before they settle down.
Mortgage rates went up because oil prices jumped after war tensions, which made investors worry about higher inflation.
Q2. Do mortgage rates always rise during wars?
No, they often rise at first due to uncertainty, but history shows they usually fall later when markets calm down.
Big global events like wars can suddenly move mortgage rates up or down for a short time. Mortgage rates closely follow the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which is normally a safe investment during crises. Usually during conflicts, investors buy bonds, which lowers yields and mortgage rates. But this time the opposite happened because oil prices jumped sharply. Oil prices rose nearly 6% to about $71 per barrel by midday Monday.
Investors worried higher oil could increase inflation, so they avoided Treasury bonds and moved money into gold. Because of this, the 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 11 basis points to 4.05%. Mortgage rates had actually been slowly falling through most of last year and early 2026. Monday’s jump pushed rates back to levels seen in January and February. Mortgage expert Jimmy Vercellino said it is “never fun” to see rates rise, as quoted by Yahoo Finance.
History shows rates often fall later during wars, even if they first spike. Examples include the 2003 Iraq war, the 2020 killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, and the 2023 Gaza war, where rates later dropped. Experts say typically wars first cause oil prices and mortgage rates to jump before they settle down.
Current average mortgage rates (national averages)
- 30-year fixed: 5.81%
- 15-year fixed: 5.32%
- 20-year fixed: 5.76%
- Adjustable rates (ARM) range around 5.82% to 5.88%
Refinance rates today
- 30-year refinance rate: 5.85%
- 15-year refinance rate: 5.42%
- Refinance rates are usually slightly higher than home-buying rates
Example monthly payments
A $300,000 loan at 5.81% for 30 years means about $1,762 monthly payment. The same loan for 15 years at 5.32% would mean $2,423 monthly, but much less total interest, as cited by Yahoo Finance.Adjustable mortgage basics
ARM loans start with a fixed rate for some years, then change regularly. They often begin cheaper but can become risky if rates rise later.How to get lower mortgage rates
Lenders give better rates to buyers with high down payments, strong credit scores, and low debt. Buyers can also pay “discount points” upfront to reduce interest rates. Temporary rate buydowns can lower payments in the first few years of a loan, as noted by Yahoo Finance.FAQs
Q1. Why did mortgage rates suddenly increase?Mortgage rates went up because oil prices jumped after war tensions, which made investors worry about higher inflation.
Q2. Do mortgage rates always rise during wars?
No, they often rise at first due to uncertainty, but history shows they usually fall later when markets calm down.
