New Delhi: United States' war on Iran, codenamed Operation Epic Fury, in partnership with its long-term Middle Eastern ally, Israel has entered its fifth day. While Trump came into the White House swearing to look in-wards and not to get involved in wars fought far away from American territory, that promise seems to have broken long back. While the White House has maintained that the war is going to continue for the next few weeks, let us get a breakdown of how much Trump's mission overseas is going to cost the ordinary taxpayers in America.
According to Kent Smetters, the director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), the total economic cost of the strikes is projected to be as high as $210 billion.
Speaking to Fortune, Smetters said that the most conservative estimate of Epic Fury is $40 billion and can go up to $95 billion. This would be the direct hit to taxpayers which accounts for direct military operations, replacement of equipment, munitions, and other war supplies.
However, Smetter added, “If the war lasts more than two months, then this number goes up.”
Apart from direct military expenditures, the additional economic loss to US could be around $115 billion, the range might be as wide as $50 billion to $210 billion.
“Again, [there’s] more uncertainty at the top end,” he said speaking to Fortune. He explained that the economic impact would account for trade disruptions, energy markets, and financial conditions, going by estimates of past conflicts in the Middle East.
The Middle East conflict started off on February 28, when Trump authorised the operation, which led to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump has maintained that the operation was pre-emptive citing Iran’s “imminent nuclear threat.” He said that the US had exhausted all their diplomatic options. Trump has vowed that the operation aims to “dismantle Iran’s missile capabilities” and make sure that Iran would “never acquire a nuclear weapon.”
However, as the war entered day three, at least four American troops had been killed. Trump announced on Monday that the operation could last “four to five weeks.” However, he did acknowledge that it could go on for much longer and did not rule out the possibility of having boots on the ground.
According to some reports, Pentagon’s pre-strike military buildup was around $630 million. This was spent on financing more than a dozen naval vessels and over 100 aircraft to the Middle East
Some insiders have mentioned that the economic costs of the war is already inviting scrutiny at Capitol Hill. According to as Reuters poll conducted over the weekend, only one in four Americans were in support of the US strikes on Iran. Smetters' estimates are likely to add fire to the political debate in US over the costs of the war, which does not have an end date at sight.
Smetters however issued a note of caution. “One problem I have with cost-of-war calculations is that they really do ignore the counterfactual,” he told Fortune. “If Iran really did get a nuclear weapon, then we might have spent a lot more on military and even repair of cities later on,” he added.
