Strongest super El Niño in 100 years might bake UK with record temperatures
Reach Daily Express April 28, 2026 02:40 AM

Britain might be hit by record temperatures this summer as the world braces for a 'super El Niño', according to experts. The weather phenomenon is characterised by sustained warm temperatures across the Pacific Ocean and is part of a natural cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It can impact places across the globe, including drier conditions in Australia to wetter weather in California. Meteorologists say El Niño's intensity will likely be comparable to the 1997/98 event, which saw global temperatures reach their highest on record. The average maximum temperature at Heathrow in August 1997 was 25.8C, with a top temperature of 31.5C.

How the weather phenomenon will impact the UK is yet to be understood, due to the large distance of the country from the Pacific. While it is still too early to provide a definitive verdict, some scientists think that this super El Niño will become one of the strongest ever recorded. For example, the Met Office's modelling suggests that sea surface temperatures could reach 1.5°C above average, adding that this could be the "strongest El Niño event so far this century". The World Meteorological Organisation predicted El Niño would return as early as May-July this year.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a natural climate pattern that shifts between a warm El Niño phase and a cool La Niña phase every two to seven years. During the El Niño phase of the cycle, warm water that builds up in the Pacific spreads out, increasing the Earth's average surface temperature.

This heat is then released into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures for months. Current measurements show that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are rising faster than at any point this century. While it is difficult to predict anything beyond April, this is a strong indication that a powerful El Niño weather pattern may be brewing.

Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at World Meteorological Organisation, said: "Climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow. Models indicate that this may be a strong event."

Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation likely isn't caused by climate change or the greenhouse effect, it can add extra heat to the atmosphere on top of the warming already being caused by climate change. When this happens, temperatures are very likely to spike to record levels.

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