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Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: DMK vs AIADMK battle enters final wait for projections, who will emerge as the big winner?
After weeks of high-decibel campaigning and one of the highest voter turnouts in the state's history, exit poll projections for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections released on Wednesday painted a sharply divided picture.
While some pollsters pointed toward a second consecutive term for Chief Minister M.K. Stalin's DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, others projected a strong showing for the NDA-AIADMK front and a surprise surge for actor-turned-politician Vijay's TVK-led combine, making this one of the most contested and unpredictable assembly elections Tamil Nadu has seen in years.
With three credible formations in the reckoning and no clear consensus among exit poll agencies, the final verdict on May 4 is being watched with unusual anticipation.
According to JVC exit poll projections, the NDA is estimated to win 131–150 seats in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 118, with the SPA projected at 80–101 seats and others accounting for 2–5.
Axis My India, however, tells a different story, projecting the TVK-led alliance at 98–120 seats, putting actor-turned-politician Vijay's combine in a strong position and potentially making it a kingmaker, or even a government-forming force, in what is shaping up to be a genuinely three-cornered contest.
TVK's support, largely drawn from younger and first-time voters, is also expected to influence outcomes in several closely fought constituencies even where it falls short.
Also Read: Tamil Nadu Exit Poll Results 2026: Survival test for EPS, OPS, Sasikala and Dhinakaran? Will 'Amma' legacy still save key present & former AIADMK leaders
What's at stake?
The high-stakes battle in Tamil Nadu is between the ruling DMK led by Chief Minister MK Stalin and the AIADMK-led alliance. At the same time, actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has added a new variable to the contest.
The DMK is seeking another term after its 2021 victory, while the AIADMK is trying to regain power with anti-incumbency as a key plank.
Turnout sets a record
Tamil Nadu recorded a historic 85.1% voter turnout, in its single-phase Assembly election, according to Election Commission data. The high turnout has intensified interest around the exit poll projections, with both the DMK and AIADMK alliances expressing confidence over their performance.
The turnout is the highest for any Tamil Nadu assembly election since 1952.
What are the key consituencies in Tamil Nadu?
Key contests are expected in Kolathur, Edappadi, Coimbatore, South Chennai, and parts of western Tamil Nadu, where margins could shape the outcome.
Chief Minister MK Stalin is contesting from Kolathur. AIADMK's Edappadi K Palaniswami faces his own contest in the Edappadi seat. TVK president Vijay is contesting from Perambur and Tiruchirappalli (East). NTK chief Seeman is in the fray from Karaikudi.
2021 baseline: What did the DMK win last time?
In 2021, most exit polls pointed to a clear victory for the DMK-led alliance. The poll of polls estimated around 160 seats for MK Stalin’s alliance, while the AIADMK-led front was projected to win about 66 seats. TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK was expected to have only a marginal presence. The Times Now-CVoter opinion poll predicted the DMK-Congress alliance led by Stalin will return to power with 177 seats, with the ruling AIADMK-BJP alliance reduced to just 49 seats. The opinion poll also projected three seats apiece for the debutant Kamal Haasan-led MNM and TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK.
Also Read: Vijay factor in Tamil Nadu Elections 2026: Can Thalapathy turn star power into political gains?
When the results were announced, the overall trend predicted by pollsters largely held true. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) returned to power, bringing an end to the AIADMK’s decade-long rule.
The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) won 159 seats, with the DMK itself securing 133 constituencies, marking its first absolute majority in 25 years. The NDA managed 75 seats, including 66 won by the AIADMK. Notably, 11 ministers from the outgoing Palaniswami cabinet lost their seats.
While some pollsters pointed toward a second consecutive term for Chief Minister M.K. Stalin's DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, others projected a strong showing for the NDA-AIADMK front and a surprise surge for actor-turned-politician Vijay's TVK-led combine, making this one of the most contested and unpredictable assembly elections Tamil Nadu has seen in years.
With three credible formations in the reckoning and no clear consensus among exit poll agencies, the final verdict on May 4 is being watched with unusual anticipation.
According to JVC exit poll projections, the NDA is estimated to win 131–150 seats in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 118, with the SPA projected at 80–101 seats and others accounting for 2–5.
Axis My India, however, tells a different story, projecting the TVK-led alliance at 98–120 seats, putting actor-turned-politician Vijay's combine in a strong position and potentially making it a kingmaker, or even a government-forming force, in what is shaping up to be a genuinely three-cornered contest.
TVK's support, largely drawn from younger and first-time voters, is also expected to influence outcomes in several closely fought constituencies even where it falls short.
Also Read: Tamil Nadu Exit Poll Results 2026: Survival test for EPS, OPS, Sasikala and Dhinakaran? Will 'Amma' legacy still save key present & former AIADMK leaders
What's at stake?
The high-stakes battle in Tamil Nadu is between the ruling DMK led by Chief Minister MK Stalin and the AIADMK-led alliance. At the same time, actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has added a new variable to the contest.
The DMK is seeking another term after its 2021 victory, while the AIADMK is trying to regain power with anti-incumbency as a key plank.
Turnout sets a record
Tamil Nadu recorded a historic 85.1% voter turnout, in its single-phase Assembly election, according to Election Commission data. The high turnout has intensified interest around the exit poll projections, with both the DMK and AIADMK alliances expressing confidence over their performance.
The turnout is the highest for any Tamil Nadu assembly election since 1952.
What are the key consituencies in Tamil Nadu?
Key contests are expected in Kolathur, Edappadi, Coimbatore, South Chennai, and parts of western Tamil Nadu, where margins could shape the outcome.
Chief Minister MK Stalin is contesting from Kolathur. AIADMK's Edappadi K Palaniswami faces his own contest in the Edappadi seat. TVK president Vijay is contesting from Perambur and Tiruchirappalli (East). NTK chief Seeman is in the fray from Karaikudi.
2021 baseline: What did the DMK win last time?
In 2021, most exit polls pointed to a clear victory for the DMK-led alliance. The poll of polls estimated around 160 seats for MK Stalin’s alliance, while the AIADMK-led front was projected to win about 66 seats. TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK was expected to have only a marginal presence. The Times Now-CVoter opinion poll predicted the DMK-Congress alliance led by Stalin will return to power with 177 seats, with the ruling AIADMK-BJP alliance reduced to just 49 seats. The opinion poll also projected three seats apiece for the debutant Kamal Haasan-led MNM and TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK.
Also Read: Vijay factor in Tamil Nadu Elections 2026: Can Thalapathy turn star power into political gains?
When the results were announced, the overall trend predicted by pollsters largely held true. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) returned to power, bringing an end to the AIADMK’s decade-long rule.
The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) won 159 seats, with the DMK itself securing 133 constituencies, marking its first absolute majority in 25 years. The NDA managed 75 seats, including 66 won by the AIADMK. Notably, 11 ministers from the outgoing Palaniswami cabinet lost their seats.
