India's crude oil imports from Russia climbed sharply in June as refiners increased purchases ahead of the full recovery of supplies from Gulf producers following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler showed India imported an average of 2.66 million barrels per day of Russian crude between June 1 and June 19, up from 1.91 million barrels per day in May, according to a PTI report. The increase further strengthened Russia's position as India's largest crude supplier.
Shipments from the United Arab Emirates also remained elevated. Imports averaged 636,000 barrels per day during the period, only slightly lower than the record 644,000 barrels per day imported in May. Venezuela emerged as India's fourth-largest supplier, delivering 209,000 barrels per day, behind Saudi Arabia's 384,000 barrels per day.
Imports from the United States declined sharply to 91,000 barrels per day in June from 252,000 barrels per day in May, according to Kpler data.
The latest purchasing pattern highlights India's efforts to diversify its crude sourcing. Russian oil continued to attract refiners because of discounted prices, while supplies from the UAE helped offset uncertainty surrounding shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
India remains heavily dependent on the Gulf region for crude oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. As the world's third-largest energy importer, the country relies on overseas markets to meet a substantial share of its energy needs.
Energy supplies faced disruptions after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following attacks by the United States and Israel. The waterway handles roughly 20 per cent of global oil consumption and serves as the primary export route for major Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar.
Oil shipments through the strait started recovering late last week after the United States and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement. However, the truce remains fragile, with Iranian authorities accusing Israel of violating the agreement, raising questions over the durability of the reopening.
According to a statement shared with PTI by Sumit Ritolia, Senior Manager for Modelling at Kpler, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to deliver the fastest relief to India's LPG supplies, while crude oil and LNG imports are likely to recover more gradually.
Ritolia said the disruption affected fuels differently. LPG experienced the biggest impact, while crude and LNG imports remained relatively resilient because India secured alternative supplies and relied on existing bypass infrastructure.
He expects the initial phase of the reopening to focus on clearing stranded cargoes and restoring shipping activity before Gulf producers significantly increase exports.
"A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would represent a major milestone for global energy markets, but the impact on India is likely to vary significantly across commodities," Ritolia said in the statement to PTI.
He added that LPG flows are expected to normalise first, followed by LNG and crude imports. Under Kpler's base case, a gradual reopening beginning in early July would first concentrate on clearing trapped cargoes and re-establishing shipping movements.
India imports around 88 per cent of its crude oil requirement, nearly half of its natural gas demand and about 65 per cent of its LPG consumption.
Before the conflict, Gulf producers supplied nearly half of India's crude imports, two-thirds of LNG requirements and almost 90 per cent of LPG imports.
Recent signs of improvement have already emerged. Three Indian-flagged oil tankers carrying more than 860,000 tonnes of crude, along with an Indian LNG carrier, have resumed transit through the strategic waterway after the US-Iran agreement aimed at ending hostilities.
Ritolia said Russian crude continues to anchor India's oil import strategy. June imports are expected to exceed 2.35 million barrels per day and could potentially set a record, supported by attractive discounts and stable refinery demand.
According to Ritolia, Russian supplies are likely to remain a key component of India's import basket even after conditions in the Strait of Hormuz fully stabilise because of favourable economics and supply security considerations.
Indian refiners have also increased purchases from the Atlantic Basin and Venezuela since March to compensate for tighter Gulf supplies. Venezuelan crude imports are estimated at 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in June, offering refiners processing heavier grades an additional supply option.
However, sanctions risks and production constraints continue to cloud Venezuela's long-term outlook.
The most significant shift has taken place in LPG imports. The United States has emerged as an important supplier after Gulf disruptions reduced shipments, supported by a long-term supply agreement signed last year. Although the move has improved diversification, it has also increased freight costs because of longer shipping routes.
Ritolia said Gulf producers are likely to gradually regain market share as conditions in the Strait of Hormuz improve, although India's supplier base is expected to remain broader than it was before the crisis.
He added that the reopening of the waterway should reduce freight costs, ease supply risks and help moderate global energy prices. However, a complete return to pre-crisis trade patterns could take several weeks or months as shipping companies, insurers and traders rebuild confidence in the route.
