Scotland’s hopes of progressing in the World Cup hang by a thread as they prepare for their decisive Group C encounter against Brazil in Miami.

After a narrow 1-0 victory over Haiti, the Tartan Army’s optimism was quickly dampened when Scotland suffered a shock defeat to Morocco. Despite knowing they needed a stronger performance, Steve Clarke’s team was left reeling just 70 seconds into the game when Ismael Saibari’s powerful strike settled the match.

Now, the Scots face an enormous challenge against five-time champions Brazil, who rediscovered their rhythm with a commanding win over Haiti. For Scotland, avoiding a heavy loss—or even securing a draw—could be enough to seal a historic qualification for the World Cup knockout rounds for the first time.

Morocco, meanwhile, are in the driver’s seat to qualify, facing already-eliminated Haiti in their final group fixture.

Let’s start with the best-case scenario. If Scotland manage to beat Brazil, they will advance to the knockouts, potentially as group winners—provided Morocco do not defeat Haiti. It would be a dream outcome for Scottish fans.

A draw would almost certainly be sufficient for Scotland, taking them to four points—a tally that should place them among the eight best third-placed teams advancing to the round of 32, alongside all top-two finishers from each group.

While three points coupled with a positive goal difference might be enough, four points nearly guarantees progression. However, Scotland would have to wait for the completion of other group games to confirm their fate, as several teams could end up tied on four points due to multiple draws.

If Scotland lose, their World Cup hopes will depend on other results. The silver lining is that their 1-0 defeat to Morocco kept their goal difference manageable. Should they fall to Brazil by only a single goal, they would finish with three points and a goal difference of -1. Based on past European Championship formats, that could still be enough to qualify as one of the eight best third-placed sides—though it would be a close call.

For Brazil, avoiding defeat will secure their place in the knockout stage. A convincing win could also see them top the group, especially if they add to the goal difference gained against Haiti.

Even in the unlikely event of a loss—which would rank among Scotland’s greatest victories—the Selecao would likely still progress as one of the top third-placed teams, already sitting on four points before their last match. To remain in the top two, however, they would need Morocco to unexpectedly lose to Haiti.

Morocco enter the final round of fixtures in the strongest position. Facing a Haitian team already out of contention, any kind of positive result will send them through, and a big win could even see them top the group.

Should Morocco suffer a shock defeat to Haiti, they would need Scotland to beat Brazil to stay in the top two. Even then, like Brazil, they are well-placed to qualify as one of the eight best third-placed teams, having already amassed four points.

If two or more teams finish level on points, the standings will be determined first by head-to-head results. A team that beat the other in the group stage will finish higher.

Where multiple teams are tied, a mini-league will be created among those teams, excluding results against others. Rankings will then be decided by points earned in those matches, followed by goal difference and goals scored. If teams remain level, overall goal difference and total goals scored will be applied.

If teams are still inseparable, the next tiebreaker is the Team Conduct Score (TCS)—a fair play measure based on disciplinary records. Each team starts on zero and loses points for cards received as follows:

Yellow card: -1

Red card for two yellows: -3

Straight red card: -4

Yellow followed by straight red: -5

The closer a team’s score is to zero, the better. If teams remain level even after this, the team with the higher FIFA ranking from June’s update will advance.

The eight best third-placed teams will be selected based on total points accumulated. If more than eight teams finish third with the same number of points, goal difference will determine who progresses.

In all probability, teams finishing third with four points or more will qualify, while those on three points will need a strong goal difference to advance.