A year ago, people close to Real Madrid were treating the renewal of Vinicius Junior’s contract as a matter of time.

That confidence came as a surprise to those around the Brazilian winger, who were fully aware of how high the demands Vinicius was placing before Real Madrid actually were.

Twelve months later, the situation has changed entirely. The Brazilian wide man has now entered the final year of his deal without any renewal agreement in place, and the two sides have moved a long way apart.

According to " Sport ", Real Madrid will not agree to the 15 million euro signing bonus that Vinicius is asking for.

The club are also sending a strong signal about their transfer plans by pushing ahead with the signing of Yan Diomande, the Leipzig winger who is represented by the same agency as Vinicius.

In fact, Vinicius is also linked with Diomande through the agency "Roc Nation", and Real Madrid are on the verge of signing the latter for 120 million euros. Florentino Perez had already mentioned that figure during his election campaign.

"Roc Nation" are expected in Madrid on Monday, the day after tomorrow, to complete the formal steps for the Ivorian forward’s move to the Spanish club. Meanwhile, the Vinicius case remains unresolved, at a time when Real Madrid are going through major changes.

Arsenal want to sign Vinicius

A new development came on Saturday. According to The Athletic, Arsenal are considering a move for Vinicius, convinced that talks between the player and Real Madrid have reached a dead end.

Vinicius joined Real Madrid in 2018 for a fee of just over 60 million euros.

He has repeatedly said in public that he wants to stay. Even so, his future is now hanging by a thread, and Florentino Perez may be ready to cut that thread if the player refuses to ease his demands.

Things are anything but straightforward at Real Madrid, who are handling several deals at the same time. They want to complete the signings of Diomande and Rodri as quickly as possible.

Diomande gives the team a natural right winger, while Rodri gives Jose Mourinho a player who can be "a tactical system in his own right".

Sources close to the Portuguese coach confirm that the Ivorian will be the first deal to be completed, not least because he is flexible enough to operate on either wing. Mourinho’s staff watched him closely during the World Cup.

An agreement on the brink of collapse

Vinícius is expected back in Madrid next week with his agent after his summer break, with his future still undecided.

The winger was left deeply disappointed after Brazil’s exit from the World Cup against Norway, a tournament in which he entered the final year of his contract with Real Madrid.

That situation is causing serious concern at the club. It opens the door to a scenario Real Madrid cannot accept: losing one of their most important players of recent years for free.

The tug of war between the two sides goes back a long way. The first serious attempts came in the summer of 2024, after Real Madrid won the Champions League.

Talks then gathered pace after the Ballon d’Or ceremony, especially once interest came from Saudi Arabia, which developed into an official meeting.

Vinícius has not been the same since losing the Ballon d’Or to Rodri. Ironically, Rodri himself may move to Madrid from the Premier League, just as England becomes a possible destination for the Brazilian star.

The real dispute is about money

Money is at the centre of the stand-off between Real Madrid and the player’s camp. Vinicius’s representatives want a loyalty bonus of 15 million euros, to be paid once he sees out his new contract, in addition to a salary close to Kylian Mbappe’s and estimated at around 30 million euros a season.

Vinicius has just turned 26. His camp believe this is the ideal time to secure the biggest deal of his career, even though his level has dropped since Mbappe arrived at the club.

If a renewal cannot be agreed, Madrid intend to sell. Arsenal have become the first Premier League club to make a serious move, considering an offer that could rise to 160 million euros.

That move would also knock out one of Barcelona’s main rivals in the chase for Julian Alvarez.

With the moves for Diomande and Rodri close to being completed and Vinicius’s future still uncertain, Real Madrid could be heading towards a domino effect both on and off the pitch. Europe’s biggest clubs are watching every step.

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