• Black believes Tesla will be among the first to achieve generalized unsupervised autonomy, but expects rivals such as Waymo, Baidu and Zoox to get there too.
• Nevada recently approved only 10 Cybercabs after Tesla sought authorization for 5,000 vehicles.
• Last month, France opposed the approval of Tesla’s FSD system in its current form.

Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black said Tesla (TSLA) stock could remain “moribund” until CEO Elon Musk proves that Cybercabs can operate without safety monitors and expand beyond mapped cities.

In a post on X on Tuesday, Black also highlighted TSLA stock’s underperformance compared to the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) over a 5-year period. As of this writing, NDX is up around 96% over the past five years while TSLA shares have climbed around 50%.

“Until Elon Musk puts on the road Cybercabs without safety monitors and scales it to cities not already mapped out, TSLA stock will remain moribund as it has been for the past five years despite bulls cheering it on every chance they get,” Black said.

Black Says ‘No Evidence’ That Cybercab Can Drive Itself ‘Flawlessly’

Black also expressed skepticism about the excitement among Tesla bulls, despite a lack of evidence that the new Cybercab can operate “flawlessly” without safety monitors or achieve near-perfect unsupervised driving.

“Bulls are again whooping it up as if TSLA has alone solved for unsupervised autonomy and the Cybercab now drives itself at 99.999% efficacy,” he said.

“I fully believe TSLA will be one of the first to solve for generalized unsupervised autonomy, but so will others,” Black added, pointing to rivals including Alphabet’s Waymo, Baidu and Amazon’s Zoox.

Resistance To FSD

Tesla said in its second-quarter earnings update that Cybercab production had begun and its Robotaxi rollout had reached seven major metropolitan areas. However, Nevada recently approved only 10 vehicles after Tesla sought authorization for 5,000, with the permit requiring “appropriate human supervision,” according to a report by Axios.

France has also opposed the approval of Tesla’s FSD system in its current form. Last month, Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot cited concerns about speeding and insufficient driver attention during complex urban maneuvers.

FSD can steer, brake and accelerate, but remains a supervised driver-assistance system rather than fully autonomous technology.

Retail sentiment surrounding TSLA on Stocktwits remained ‘bullish’ over the past 24 hours.

The stock has declined more than 22% so far this year and is the biggest laggard among the Magnificent 7 stocks.

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