Gold and silver prices in India have been on an upward trajectory, driven by robust demand, with experts predicting the rally to extend through the festive season. Since the start of the financial year, gold has seen a nearly 10% price increase, while silver has surged by 24%. Market analysts believe the favorable market conditions are set to persist, making it a good time to invest in precious metals.
Sachin Jain, Regional CEO of the World Gold Council in India, highlighted the impact of the recent customs duty cut on gold, which has boosted consumption. “We foresee the October-December quarter to be strong for gold, and it’s a good time for gold,” said Jain. Currently, gold prices stand around Rs 75,000 per 10 grams, slightly below their all-time high of Rs 75,400.
Ajay Kedia, head of Kedia Advisory in Mumbai, predicts that gold futures could rally toward Rs 77,000 in the near term. He emphasized the importance of price corrections in supporting the rally, noting that factors such as ETF buying, central bank demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions are bullish for gold. Gold prices were around Rs 68,700 at the beginning of this financial year, marking a significant rise since then.
Silver, too, has experienced substantial gains, with prices currently hovering around Rs 93,000 per kg, compared to Rs 75,000 at the start of the financial year. Ajay Kedia projects that silver prices could reach Rs 100,000 per kg in the near-to-mid term. The increasing industrial use of silver in sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels is expected to support the continued rise in prices.
Kedia noted that recession fears in some countries had previously held silver prices back, but recent months have seen strong outperformance. Manoj Kumar Jain, Director and Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Prithvi Finmart, echoed Kedia’s optimism, forecasting that gold could touch Rs 77,000 and silver may reach Rs 96,000 soon.
Experts attribute the ongoing bull run in gold and silver prices to a combination of factors. Post-COVID gold buying by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and interest rate cuts by central banks worldwide have played a significant role in driving prices higher. Manoj Kumar Jain also pointed out that global gold prices have surged by around 40% this year, far exceeding the typical annual average of 10%.
Colin Shah, Managing Director of Kama Jewelry and former Vice Chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), emphasized the strong demand for gold as the festive season approaches. Shah cited the US interest rate cut cycle and geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Lebanon, as key factors pushing gold prices higher. He expects international gold prices to potentially reach USD 3,000 per ounce and domestic prices to cross Rs 78,000 in the medium to long term.
Pranav Mer, Vice President of Commodity and Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, supported the positive outlook for bullion, noting that safe-haven demand and ETF buying will likely keep prices supported. He added that gold futures have key support at Rs 75,850/Rs 75,500, while resistance levels are seen at Rs 76,550 for December contracts.
The ongoing rally in gold and silver prices presents a favorable opportunity for investors, especially with the festive season around the corner. With strong demand and a host of bullish factors in play, precious metals are expected to continue their upward momentum in the near term.
