The exit polls for the Jammu & Kashmir and Haryana assembly elections suggest a significant shift in political momentum towards the Opposition. In Haryana, the Congress is poised to end the BJP’s decade-long rule, with predictions showing a likely win in 55 of the state’s 90 seats. In Jammu & Kashmir, the National Conference-Congress alliance is forecast to approach the majority, with 43 seats, just three shy of the required number. However, the BJP remains strong in Jammu, and looks set to emerge as the single-largest party there.
These results reflect a broader trend that has been building throughout 2024, as regional and Opposition parties gain momentum against the BJP. Earlier this year, the BJP’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections also fell short, forcing it to rely on alliance partners to form the government. Notably, the Congress performed far better than in previous years, even securing the Leader of the Opposition post in the Lok Sabha after a decade.
The most striking takeaway from these exit polls is the diminishing impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal. Once the BJP’s most powerful electoral asset, Modi’s influence appears to be waning, as shown by the predictions for Haryana. The exit polls underscore that his ability to single-handedly carry the party to victory is no longer a guarantee.
The potential victory of the NC-Congress alliance in Jammu & Kashmir, as suggested by exit polls, underscores the continuing rise of regional parties, a trend visible since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This alliance represents a clear rejection of the BJP’s policies, especially the abrogation of Article 370, which stripped the region of its special status. The success of this coalition signals a growing demand for greater autonomy and regional governance in the Valley, reigniting debates over federalism and Centre-state relations in India.
The exit poll results also highlight the increasing relevance of Opposition coalitions. The Congress’ ability to forge strategic partnerships with regional players, like the National Conference, serves as a potential blueprint for upcoming state elections. However, the alliance’s weak performance in Jammu is a reminder that where the BJP’s narrative resonates with voters, the Opposition struggles to break through.
In Haryana, the exit polls predict a strengthening of the Congress, reflecting a consolidation of support from farmers, Dalits, and Jats. While the results show that a strong local Congress organisation can win elections, an Opposition alliance — as was being planned between the Congress and the AAP — would have further cornered the BJP.
Looking forward, it’s essential for smaller parties like the AAP to acknowledge the necessity of working with larger parties, like the Congress, to build a unified front against the BJP. It’s not only the Congress that needs to be open to alliances; regional parties must also embrace the reality of coalition politics to maximise their electoral strength.
The exit poll predictions signal a significant setback for the BJP in this election. Despite its polarising, high-stakes campaign in Jammu & Kashmir, the expected support, particularly from the Valley due to the abrogation of Article 370, has not materialised. This outcome should serve as a wake-up call for the BJP: the stripping of autonomy from any region, especially one as sensitive as Jammu & Kashmir, will never sit well with its people. The BJP’s nationalistic narrative, which once held sway, seems to be losing ground, as regional concerns and demands for autonomy take precedence.
In Haryana, the exit polls reflect deep dissatisfaction with the BJP across various sections, including Jats, farmers, and Dalits. The backlash against the controversial farm laws, which sparked massive protests, is still fresh in the minds of these communities. In a state heavily reliant on agriculture, the BJP’s handling of the farmers’ protests and its superficial gestures — such as honouring community leaders — have not been enough to quell the discontent. The effects of the now-defunct laws linger, highlighting a lack of genuine connection with grassroots concerns.
What these results suggest is that the BJP can no longer rely on top-down, charismatic campaigns spearheaded by Narendra Modi to win elections. Without robust grassroots mobilisation and policies that address the needs of local communities, the BJP’s electoral success is no longer assured. The party must re-evaluate its strategy, moving away from polarising rhetoric and focusing on substantive engagement with the issues that matter most to voters on the ground. The limits of polarisation, as demonstrated by these exit polls, may have finally been reached.
The exit poll predictions for the Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana assembly elections indicate a clear advantage for the Opposition, signalling a significant challenge for the BJP at the national level. A stronger and more unified Opposition could shift the political dynamics, forcing the BJP to contend with increased scrutiny and resistance in the upcoming elections.
These results will also impact the composition of the Rajya Sabha. Haryana, with its five seats — most currently held by the BJP — and Jammu and Kashmir, with its four seats, could see a shift in representation, potentially weakening the BJP’s hold in the Upper House.
If the exit poll predictions come true, the BJP’s alliance partners in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), such as Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), may seize the opportunity to exert more pressure on the BJP to push their agendas.
Moreover, the continuous weakening of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image and charisma poses internal risks for the BJP. A diminishing Modi factor could foster discontent and factionalism within the party, potentially fracturing the unity that has been key to its electoral success.
The exit poll predictions once again highlight that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma alone is no longer enough to secure victories in state elections. This signals a shift in voter expectations, where reliance on a central figure is diminishing. The BJP will need to build strong grassroots organisations in every state rather than depend solely on Modi’s image.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election results hinted at this trend, and the latest exit polls further emphasise that people now demand state-specific solutions rather than broad national narratives like Hindutva, nationalism, or Opposition bashing. This shift indicates that the BJP must recalibrate its approach, focusing on tangible development and local issues rather than grand national themes.
In Haryana, the predictions show that a political party with a strong organisational structure and credible local leadership holds an advantage. The BJP, which had an edge in the state, seems to have faltered due to internal strife and the sidelining of former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. The party’s decision to remove Khattar has clearly backfired, causing damage to its prospects in the state, underscoring the importance of local leadership and cohesive strategy.
Three crucial assembly elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Delhi are set to take place by the end of this year and early next year. If the exit poll predictions hold true, it could provide a significant boost to the Opposition and place the BJP under immense pressure.
In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is strained, while the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) has an advantage, as seen in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The internal discord within the ruling alliance puts the BJP in a challenging position. Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, the arrest of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) chief and Chief Minister Hemant Soren earlier this year stirred emotional responses, particularly among the tribal community. This arrest did not play well locally, potentially backfiring on the BJP and strengthening support for Soren.
In Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) holds an edge over the BJP, continuing its local dominance. Should the BJP lose in both Jammu and Kashmir, and Haryana, as predicted, it would only embolden the Opposition further. Such a result would create internal tensions within the BJP, as its leadership would face increasing scrutiny over its electoral strategy and declining popularity across multiple states.
The author teaches journalism at St Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata, and is a political columnist.
