The Arab Spring in the early 21st century and its aftermath saw exploitation of all forms of media, especially social media platforms, to create mass movements for regime change, in their respective countries. These uprisings were fuelled due of genuine grievances of the local populace, against their existing governing establishments. But what we witnessed in Bangladesh in early August, was a construct by a set of conspiratorial minds, with covert support of vested powers, that wanted change due to their despicable interests. They used the opportunity of agitation by the youth of the country, against governments selective reservations, by infiltrating their cadres into these protests, enflaming sentiments and smartly using the youth to unfold their agenda of ousting Sheikh Hasina, even after she had met the students demands.
If observers of the Bangladesh scenario feel that the July 2024 students protest against a quota system that was deemed to be unfair is the reason for the upheaval that the country is presently enduring, then they could not have been more wrong. If clear-eyed analyses and reading of past entrails are gone into, it would be clear that both a conspiracy and an almost calibrated campaign was executed with perfection.
Streets are for stark demonstrations. But the "Backroom Boys" had already worked out the Hasina ouster to its last gory details. Indeed, even the Bangladesh army and the country's intelligence agencies, the Directorate of Forces Intelligence and the National Security Intelligence were aware of the "revolution". But they did nothing about it, perhaps because they, too, were pliant subsets of a grand conspiracy.
In the recent past while bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina regime, were at its zenith, there was an increasing resentment in the public against the political leadership, due to multiple reasons, including religious extremism, influence of a Sino-Pakistan coterie and anti-India rhetoric. This perception was shared by the former Bangladesh Information Minister, Tarana Halim, with Jaideep Saikia, co-author of the article.
As a matter of fact, the plan, most likely was to "arrest" Sheikh Hasina in the immediate aftermath of the storming of her official residence and put her on the dock before a kangaroo court and mete out what her detractors felt would be "just retribution". After all, almost all the important leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami were under incarceration, and anyone with even an iota of comprehension about Bangladesh, would know that spite and vengeance, and even jealousy, is intrinsic to the character of a large number that still pined for Pakistani ideology. This inference is substantiated by recent statements of members of the Jamaat and the interim establishment. It was clearly the Bangladesh army chief, Waker Uz-Zaman, a relative of Sheikh Hasina, who alongwith Hasina's son Joy, intervened and persuaded her to flee Bangladesh. The streets of Dhaka were baying for her blood.
But to return to the present, contradictions are beginning to surface between the students, Md. Yunus interim government, the Bangladesh army and the President. Indeed, the latter is the only constitutionally elected person in Bangladesh. There is no provision for an interim government and fissures are beginning to appear within the present Bangladesh polity.
General Waker-Uz-Zaman, by all reckoning, wants democracy back in Bangladesh. Indeed, reports inform that he is keen on the holding of elections by July 2025. Furthermore, unlike earlier times, the rank and file of the Bangladesh army are not in a mood for holding on to power. Gen. Zaman, presently on a tour to the United States, would probably make his views clear to Washington DC, who in any event has worked out a modus vivendi with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. It seems that the BNP wants early elections as it is feeling the heat of increasing influence of the Jamaat and its impact on their gameplan.
There are also reports that the Yunus dispensation wants to remove President Sahabuddin Chuppu, the last vestige from the Hasina regime. However, Gen. Zaman is against it and has stated that the tri-service chiefs would report to the President who is the Supreme Commander of the armed forces. It is reliably learnt, that the Armed Forces leadership has enough "skeletons in the cupboard", and are therefore, not keen on being a player in conspiratorial Bangladesh.
But the plot has been carefully calibrated, with the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, free to peddle their will among an aggrieved populace. The coming days will most likely, witness the return of the "Barrack-backed politics" with a Jamaat ensign. Indeed, important leaders of the student conglomerate that had propped up Yunus are closet Islamists.
The calibrated campaign that the article stated right in the beginning was precisely the manner in which a "Third Wave of Radicalisation" was being incubated inside the lecture halls of various colleges in Bangladesh. Stealth Islamists were spreading radicalisation in the garb of "anti-Hasina" pamphlets. While it would be incorrect to state that each and every student of Bangladesh has been radicalised, the truth is that the influence of the Jamaat is slowly penetrating the vestiges of political power, in Bangladesh and that does not augur well for India. Also, the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence of Bangladesh and the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan, have always had an old tie network in place. And a large majority of senior Bangladesh army officers have done formative and career courses at Pakistani military institutions, like the Quetta based Command and Staff College and the NDC. In any event, as is the case with most "revolutions-in-being", the atmospherics inside Bangladesh are not as hunky-dory as one would surmise. Indeed, there lies an opening for India.
The following is recommended; Firstly, "strategic patience" that was coined and recommended by Jaideep Saikia, has to now gradually be supplanted by "strategic engagement”, in the form of "strategic outreach”. At this time it is only rhetoric that seems to be emanating from Bangladesh. The extra-regional chaperons have clearly advised Dhaka not to go for an overdrive that might provoke India into adopting unsavoury measures including coercion. In other words, it is Bangladesh that is playing the game of chess, prodding in order to probe India's response and making statements soon afterwards that assuage hurt sentiments.
Secondly, "strategic outreach" has to be played out on multiple fronts. The engagement should be with Md. Yunus and his interim government, especially the Foreign Affairs Adviser, Touhid Hossain, who has earlier had a good relationship with the Indian Foreign Minister, Mr Jaishankar. Back channels should also be opened up with Nahid Islam, Asif Mahmud and Abu Bakar Majumder, the troika among the student conglomerate who have influence on Yunus. India should open channels with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, perhaps by way of reaching out to Begum Khaleda's London-based son, Tariq Rahman as also with the Bangladesh army. Political and diplomatic overtures with the USA will have to be on an overdrive, post the US Presidential elections, to garner the support of the new dispensation, on the impact and complexities of a radicalised Bangladesh and a turbulent Myanmar, on the Indo Pacific landscape.
Thirdly, there is a need to New Delhi to have a heterogenous high level (Track II) delegation of Bangladesh experts and facilitate early interactions with Bangladesh. It has informally come to light that a former Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh has also mooted such an idea. Fourthly, the next series of Indo-Bangladesh military exercises – “Exercise Sampriti” must be conducted earliest and if possible in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, in Bangladesh, adjoining Mizoram. The last one in 2023, was conducted in India, in Meghalaya. In addition there should be no break in the uniformed engagements, including military courses and staff talks. Fifthly, there is a need for enhanced visibility in the execution of existing agreements of trade, transportation, energy, cultural exchanges, etc, for positive impact on people’s perception in Bangladesh. In a subtle manner, there is a need to convey the geographical reality that inextricably binds the future of our two countries. More so in this era of climate change, where we are part of the same eco system and India can contribute towards its mitigation challenges.
The need of the hour is to work in unison, and not be carried away by the rhetoric or instigation of the nefarious few. This has to be, by both India and Bangladesh.
(Lt Gen Arun Kumar Sahni is a former Army Commander and has been The Corps Commander at Dimapur. & Mr Jaideep Saikia is a Conflict Theorist, Author and a leading strategist)
If observers of the Bangladesh scenario feel that the July 2024 students protest against a quota system that was deemed to be unfair is the reason for the upheaval that the country is presently enduring, then they could not have been more wrong. If clear-eyed analyses and reading of past entrails are gone into, it would be clear that both a conspiracy and an almost calibrated campaign was executed with perfection.
Streets are for stark demonstrations. But the "Backroom Boys" had already worked out the Hasina ouster to its last gory details. Indeed, even the Bangladesh army and the country's intelligence agencies, the Directorate of Forces Intelligence and the National Security Intelligence were aware of the "revolution". But they did nothing about it, perhaps because they, too, were pliant subsets of a grand conspiracy.
In the recent past while bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina regime, were at its zenith, there was an increasing resentment in the public against the political leadership, due to multiple reasons, including religious extremism, influence of a Sino-Pakistan coterie and anti-India rhetoric. This perception was shared by the former Bangladesh Information Minister, Tarana Halim, with Jaideep Saikia, co-author of the article.
As a matter of fact, the plan, most likely was to "arrest" Sheikh Hasina in the immediate aftermath of the storming of her official residence and put her on the dock before a kangaroo court and mete out what her detractors felt would be "just retribution". After all, almost all the important leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami were under incarceration, and anyone with even an iota of comprehension about Bangladesh, would know that spite and vengeance, and even jealousy, is intrinsic to the character of a large number that still pined for Pakistani ideology. This inference is substantiated by recent statements of members of the Jamaat and the interim establishment. It was clearly the Bangladesh army chief, Waker Uz-Zaman, a relative of Sheikh Hasina, who alongwith Hasina's son Joy, intervened and persuaded her to flee Bangladesh. The streets of Dhaka were baying for her blood.
But to return to the present, contradictions are beginning to surface between the students, Md. Yunus interim government, the Bangladesh army and the President. Indeed, the latter is the only constitutionally elected person in Bangladesh. There is no provision for an interim government and fissures are beginning to appear within the present Bangladesh polity.
General Waker-Uz-Zaman, by all reckoning, wants democracy back in Bangladesh. Indeed, reports inform that he is keen on the holding of elections by July 2025. Furthermore, unlike earlier times, the rank and file of the Bangladesh army are not in a mood for holding on to power. Gen. Zaman, presently on a tour to the United States, would probably make his views clear to Washington DC, who in any event has worked out a modus vivendi with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. It seems that the BNP wants early elections as it is feeling the heat of increasing influence of the Jamaat and its impact on their gameplan.
There are also reports that the Yunus dispensation wants to remove President Sahabuddin Chuppu, the last vestige from the Hasina regime. However, Gen. Zaman is against it and has stated that the tri-service chiefs would report to the President who is the Supreme Commander of the armed forces. It is reliably learnt, that the Armed Forces leadership has enough "skeletons in the cupboard", and are therefore, not keen on being a player in conspiratorial Bangladesh.
But the plot has been carefully calibrated, with the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, free to peddle their will among an aggrieved populace. The coming days will most likely, witness the return of the "Barrack-backed politics" with a Jamaat ensign. Indeed, important leaders of the student conglomerate that had propped up Yunus are closet Islamists.
The calibrated campaign that the article stated right in the beginning was precisely the manner in which a "Third Wave of Radicalisation" was being incubated inside the lecture halls of various colleges in Bangladesh. Stealth Islamists were spreading radicalisation in the garb of "anti-Hasina" pamphlets. While it would be incorrect to state that each and every student of Bangladesh has been radicalised, the truth is that the influence of the Jamaat is slowly penetrating the vestiges of political power, in Bangladesh and that does not augur well for India. Also, the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence of Bangladesh and the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan, have always had an old tie network in place. And a large majority of senior Bangladesh army officers have done formative and career courses at Pakistani military institutions, like the Quetta based Command and Staff College and the NDC. In any event, as is the case with most "revolutions-in-being", the atmospherics inside Bangladesh are not as hunky-dory as one would surmise. Indeed, there lies an opening for India.
The following is recommended; Firstly, "strategic patience" that was coined and recommended by Jaideep Saikia, has to now gradually be supplanted by "strategic engagement”, in the form of "strategic outreach”. At this time it is only rhetoric that seems to be emanating from Bangladesh. The extra-regional chaperons have clearly advised Dhaka not to go for an overdrive that might provoke India into adopting unsavoury measures including coercion. In other words, it is Bangladesh that is playing the game of chess, prodding in order to probe India's response and making statements soon afterwards that assuage hurt sentiments.
Secondly, "strategic outreach" has to be played out on multiple fronts. The engagement should be with Md. Yunus and his interim government, especially the Foreign Affairs Adviser, Touhid Hossain, who has earlier had a good relationship with the Indian Foreign Minister, Mr Jaishankar. Back channels should also be opened up with Nahid Islam, Asif Mahmud and Abu Bakar Majumder, the troika among the student conglomerate who have influence on Yunus. India should open channels with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, perhaps by way of reaching out to Begum Khaleda's London-based son, Tariq Rahman as also with the Bangladesh army. Political and diplomatic overtures with the USA will have to be on an overdrive, post the US Presidential elections, to garner the support of the new dispensation, on the impact and complexities of a radicalised Bangladesh and a turbulent Myanmar, on the Indo Pacific landscape.
Thirdly, there is a need to New Delhi to have a heterogenous high level (Track II) delegation of Bangladesh experts and facilitate early interactions with Bangladesh. It has informally come to light that a former Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh has also mooted such an idea. Fourthly, the next series of Indo-Bangladesh military exercises – “Exercise Sampriti” must be conducted earliest and if possible in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, in Bangladesh, adjoining Mizoram. The last one in 2023, was conducted in India, in Meghalaya. In addition there should be no break in the uniformed engagements, including military courses and staff talks. Fifthly, there is a need for enhanced visibility in the execution of existing agreements of trade, transportation, energy, cultural exchanges, etc, for positive impact on people’s perception in Bangladesh. In a subtle manner, there is a need to convey the geographical reality that inextricably binds the future of our two countries. More so in this era of climate change, where we are part of the same eco system and India can contribute towards its mitigation challenges.
The need of the hour is to work in unison, and not be carried away by the rhetoric or instigation of the nefarious few. This has to be, by both India and Bangladesh.
(Lt Gen Arun Kumar Sahni is a former Army Commander and has been The Corps Commander at Dimapur. & Mr Jaideep Saikia is a Conflict Theorist, Author and a leading strategist)
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
