Many of the health threats and impacts of climate change are “exceeding all previous records”, a study by the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change has warned, adding that the world is increasingly off-track from meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The impacts, the report says, range from extreme climate events and increasingly suitable conditions for the spread of infectious diseases, to growing mortality among the elderly, and lost sleep and exercise on account of heat stress, says the report, published Wednesday.
The Lancet Countdown was established in 2015 to “monitor the health impacts and opportunities of the world’s response” to the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global temperature increase this century to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Supported through strategic core funding from Wellcome, a UK-based charity initiative, the “collaboration brings together over 300 multidisciplinary researchers and health professionals from around the world to take stock annually of the evolving links between health and climate change at global, regional, and national levels”.
The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown, “building on the expertise of 122 leading researchers from UN agencies and academic institutions worldwide, reveals the most concerning findings yet in the collaboration’s years of monitoring”.
The report reveals that “people in every country face record-breaking threats to health and survival from the rapidly changing climate, with 10 of 15 indicators tracking health threats reaching concerning new records”.
The authors seek urgent action, and call out “governments and companies who continue ‘fuelling the fire’ with persistent investment in fossil fuels, all-time high energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and years of delays in adaptation that are narrowing the survival chances of people across the globe”.
“Despite some progress in adoption of renewable energy, many key indicators point to a world moving in the wrong direction, with many showing a reversal of progress in the last year of data,” it adds.
The Lancet report is peppered with some alarming findings: In 2023, it says, “people were exposed, on average, to an unprecedented 50 more days of health-threatening heat than expected without climate change, resulting in 167% more annual deaths of adults older than 65 years than in the 1990s.
A press release accompanying the report notes that this is “substantially above the 65% increase that would have been expected had temperatures not changed (i.e., accounting only for changing demographics)”.
“This compounds existing inequities, with the number of health-threatening heat days added by climate change higher in countries with a low human development index (a measure of education, income, and life expectancy),” the statement notes.
The hours of sleep lost due to heat exposure reached 6% above hours lost in 1986-2005, the report adds, also noting that heat exposure led to “record losses of the hours available for safe outdoor physical activity and labour”.
“Meanwhile, heat exposure resulted in a record worsening of online sentiment expressions globally,” the report notes. Discussing the latter indicator, the report observes how “extreme heat can affect human mental health outcomes across a continuum of severity, from subclinical to life-altering”.
Findings on this count are based on “geolocalised X (formerly Twitter) posts with coincident meteorological data to estimate the effect of heat exposure on expressed sentiment.
“Over the last 10 years, on average, extreme heat events worsened sentiment by 18% more than the estimated baseline effect,” the report says, adding that these findings suggest that the annual sentiment-worsening impacts of heat have increased globally.
Among other findings, the report says extreme drought affected 48% of global land area in 2023 — the second-highest proportion recorded.
“The increased frequency of droughts and heatwaves has resulted in a record 151 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity in 2022 than in 1986–2010,” the report says, noting that the “changing climate is making environmental conditions increasingly suitable for the transmission of deadly infectious diseases such as dengue, malaria, vibriosis, and West Nile virus-related illness in new parts of the world”.
The researchers behind the report warn that “governments and corporations around the world are exacerbating the risks” of climate change. “Fuelled by record profits, oil and gas giants have expanded their production plans, and, as of March, 2024, were on track to exceed their emissions compatible with 1·5°C by 189% in 2040, 16 percentage points above the year before.
“In addition, as energy prices soared and countries’ energy systems remained reliant on fossil fuels in 2022, governments allocated a record-breaking $1.4 trillion to net fossil fuel subsidies, dwarfing any financial commitments in support of climate action made at COP28 (2023 UN conference),” it says.
It notes that “an increased focus on health within UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the parent treaty to Paris Agreement) negotiations in COP28 and the prioritisation of climate change within the WHO’s GPW (General Programme of Work) 14 mark important progress”.
“The engagement of individuals, corporations, scientists, and international organisations with climate change and health is growing, raising hopes that a healthy, prosperous future could still be within reach,” the report says.
“However, avoiding a catastrophic increase in death, disease, and destruction will require urgent, decisive, and health-focused actions, exceeding the ambition of international commitments.”
