In this US presidential election 2024, swing state Pennsylvania could seal the deal for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, as it has more electoral votes, 19, compared to the other six swing states. Hours before the election, both the presidential hopefuls concentrated their eleventh hour efforts on Pennsylvania.
Kamala Harris spent all of Monday in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes offer the largest prize among the states expected to determine the Electoral College outcome. Donald Trump held four rallies in three states, beginning in Raleigh, North Carolina, stopping twice in Pennsylvania with events in Reading and Pittsburgh, then ending in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
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Pennsylvania is the fifth most populous state in the United States that offers 19 of 538 electoral votes and is the biggest of seven swing states. With 9 million registered voters, Pennsylvania has two large urban aeras- Philadelphia and Pittsburg, heaving in favour of Democrats. Between the two are vast stretches of rural territory where Republicans dominate. And the suburbs that once were reliably conservative are now tilting to the left. A victory there would clear a path to White House for either candidate.
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If the Democrats win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, along with one congressional district in Nebraska, Kamala Harris would be the next president. If the Republicans carry Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, Trump is back in the White House next year.
Without Pennsylvania, there is no way Trump can win without flipping at least three of the states Joe Biden won in 2020.
Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have campaigned aggressively in Pennsylvania, visiting the state between the Great Lakes and the Atlantic more often than any other state. The stakes are particularly daunting for Harris. Since 1948, no Democrat has become president without carrying Pennsylvania.
Since 1992, the Commonwealth has become part of the Blue Wall of northern industrial states that have always supported the Democratic candidate — until Trump knocked it down in 2016 by a razor-thin majority.
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In 2020, Biden snatched it back by another super-slim majority. Just days before election day, the polls are tied, the outcome is looking like a coin toss.
Pennsylvania is home to five heavily contested races for the U.S. House, contests that will be critical to determining control of a narrowly divided chamber where Democrats need a net pickup of four seats to take control.
The state turned red (Republicans) in 2016 when Trump won it by nearly 45,000 votes. He was the first Republican to win the state since the 1980s. In 2020, the Keystone State flipped again. President Joe Biden won it by about 80,000 votes, according to Pennsylvania voting results data. Although Biden’s win was larger than Trump’s, it was not an overwhelming victory. In a state that then had more than 9 million registered voters, his win amounted to 1 percentage point.
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According to statistician Nate Silver’s election forecasting model, Pennsylvania is far more likely to tip the election than any other battleground state. It also found both candidates have a more than 85% chance of winning the election if they secure Pennsylvania. Several political experts think that Pennsylvanians might favour Trump to handle the economy as under his administration economy was in a much better place.
The final New York Times/Siena College poll of the state - published on Sunday - suggested the two were locked in a tie, with both Trump and Harris at 48% of likely voters. Before then, they were locked in a virtual dead heat, with Harris slightly ahead, reported BBC.
Kamala Harris spent all of Monday in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes offer the largest prize among the states expected to determine the Electoral College outcome. Donald Trump held four rallies in three states, beginning in Raleigh, North Carolina, stopping twice in Pennsylvania with events in Reading and Pittsburgh, then ending in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
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Why Pennsylvania holds the key to the White House?
According to calculations by elections analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House, according to a BBC report. “It’s the granddaddy of all the swing states,” said former congressman Patrick Murphy, who represented north-eastern Pennsylvania as a Democrat from 2007-11.Pennsylvania is the fifth most populous state in the United States that offers 19 of 538 electoral votes and is the biggest of seven swing states. With 9 million registered voters, Pennsylvania has two large urban aeras- Philadelphia and Pittsburg, heaving in favour of Democrats. Between the two are vast stretches of rural territory where Republicans dominate. And the suburbs that once were reliably conservative are now tilting to the left. A victory there would clear a path to White House for either candidate.
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If the Democrats win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, along with one congressional district in Nebraska, Kamala Harris would be the next president. If the Republicans carry Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, Trump is back in the White House next year.
Without Pennsylvania, there is no way Trump can win without flipping at least three of the states Joe Biden won in 2020.
Why is Pennsylvania such an important battleground state?
Nicknamed the Keystone State, Pennsylvania could in fact be the key to the White House. Not only it is a valuable swing state, Pennsylvania also can be seen as a microcosm of the US as a whole – demographically, economically and politically.Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have campaigned aggressively in Pennsylvania, visiting the state between the Great Lakes and the Atlantic more often than any other state. The stakes are particularly daunting for Harris. Since 1948, no Democrat has become president without carrying Pennsylvania.
Since 1992, the Commonwealth has become part of the Blue Wall of northern industrial states that have always supported the Democratic candidate — until Trump knocked it down in 2016 by a razor-thin majority.
ALSO READ: US election result date: Trump or Kamala Harris? When will we know the winner?
In 2020, Biden snatched it back by another super-slim majority. Just days before election day, the polls are tied, the outcome is looking like a coin toss.
Pennsylvania is home to five heavily contested races for the U.S. House, contests that will be critical to determining control of a narrowly divided chamber where Democrats need a net pickup of four seats to take control.
Pennsylvania's past performances
Only once in the last 40 years has a candidate won Pennsylvania by double-digits - Barack Obama in his 2008 electoral landslide. And in the prior four presidential elections, Pennsylvania voted for Democrats.The state turned red (Republicans) in 2016 when Trump won it by nearly 45,000 votes. He was the first Republican to win the state since the 1980s. In 2020, the Keystone State flipped again. President Joe Biden won it by about 80,000 votes, according to Pennsylvania voting results data. Although Biden’s win was larger than Trump’s, it was not an overwhelming victory. In a state that then had more than 9 million registered voters, his win amounted to 1 percentage point.
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What will happen this time?
Pennsylvanians have routinely picked winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners. The candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin in the past eight elections.According to statistician Nate Silver’s election forecasting model, Pennsylvania is far more likely to tip the election than any other battleground state. It also found both candidates have a more than 85% chance of winning the election if they secure Pennsylvania. Several political experts think that Pennsylvanians might favour Trump to handle the economy as under his administration economy was in a much better place.
The final New York Times/Siena College poll of the state - published on Sunday - suggested the two were locked in a tie, with both Trump and Harris at 48% of likely voters. Before then, they were locked in a virtual dead heat, with Harris slightly ahead, reported BBC.
