The country's retail inflation has come down to 6.21 percent. Which is a big blow for the country. It means that the country's retail inflation has seen an increase of more than 72 percent in 3 months after the month of July. On the other hand, if we talk about urban and rural inflation, then there has also been an increase in it.

Retail inflation figures have increased for the third consecutive month. In the month of October, retail inflation reached a 14-month high. The special thing is that no one had any idea that the retail inflation figure would cross 6 percent. Which is more than the tolerance level of RBI. Due to which the lines of worry have increased even more. Because the impact of inflation is affecting the daily needs of the common people as well as the loan EMI that goes once a month.

The effect of rising inflation can be clearly seen in the loan EMI in the coming days. Till now RBI has kept the repo rate frozen. At the same time, there has been a change in the stance in the month of October, but the inflation figures are also a matter of concern for the RBI. In such a situation, it is being estimated that not only in December but also in the last meeting of the current financial year i.e. February 2025, it may be difficult for the RBI to cut the policy rate. Let us also tell you how the common people are getting a double blow of inflation?

Continuously increasing inflation

In the month of July, the country's retail inflation came to a 5-year low i.e. 3.60 percent. In August, there was a slight increase in it and it became 3.65 percent. In the month of September, there was a tremendous jump in retail inflation and the figure reached 5.49 percent. The retail inflation of October was being estimated to be high, but this estimate was less than 6 percent i.e. between 5.8 to 5.9 percent, which was a 14-month high. But psychologically it was less than 6 percent. The figures that came out shattered all those estimates.

The country's retail inflation has come down to 6.21 percent. Which is a big blow for the country. It is clear that the country's retail inflation has seen an increase of more than 72 percent in 3 months after the month of July. On the other hand, if we talk about urban and rural inflation, then there has also been an increase in it. According to government data, urban inflation was seen at 5.62 percent in the month of October, while the figure of rural inflation came down to 6.68 percent.

Food inflation became the biggest enemy

Food inflation is being said to be the biggest contributor to the increase in overall inflation, which has reached close to 11 percent in the month of October. In which the inflation of vegetables has reached a 57-month high. According to government data, vegetable inflation has been seen at 42.2 percent in the month of October. In vegetables too, the prices of tomatoes and onions have affected the most. Especially the prices of onions were at the 7th sky in the month of October, the festive month.

On the other hand, the prices of other vegetables were seen between 70 to 100 rupees per kilogram on an average. The effect of which was seen in the form of inflation. This was the situation when in the month of October itself, government organizations started selling onions at cheap prices i.e. 35 rupees per kilogram and the government took out the buffer stock of onions. In such a situation, the inflation figure going beyond the tolerance level of RBI is telling a lot.

These goods also became expensive

Not only vegetables became expensive, but the rising prices of pulses, fruits and other goods have also played a role in increasing inflation.

In the month of October, there was an increase in the inflation of grains and the figure reached 6.94 percent.

There was also a rise in the prices of edible oil and its inflation was seen to be rapid and the figure was seen to be 9.61 percent.

If we talk about fruits, then according to government data, inflation in fruits was seen to be 8.43 percent in the month of October.
In the month of October, the impact of inflation was seen on pulses as well and the figure was 7.43 percent.

This means that the total inflation figure in food and beverages was 9.69 percent, which is quite large.

What will be the impact on loan EMI?

Now the biggest question is that when the inflation figure is increasing, the biggest problem for RBI is how to reduce loan EMI. First of all, RBI's focus will be to bring inflation below the tolerance level. Also, it will have to be continuously maintained at that level where it seems that now the loan EMI can be reduced. Which may take time. In fact, even though the inflation rate was below 4 percent in the months of July and August, food inflation was still a cause of concern for RBI MPC.

Even though this figure was less than 6 percent in the months of July and August, but in the month of September this figure once again jumped above 9 percent. In the policy meeting of the month of October, the RBI Governor also mentioned that food inflation is still a matter of great concern. Which needs to be seen in the coming days. In such a situation, RBI has no other option except to keep the policy rate frozen in the coming days.

How long can interest rates remain frozen?

By the way, many experts have already predicted this. Some experts had predicted that the repo rate could be cut in the month of October. This prediction was made at a time when RBI changed its stance in the October policy meeting and indicated that interest rates could be cut in the coming days.

Now that the inflation figures for the month of October have come and the estimate for the month of November is also being made around 6 percent, then it seems difficult for the policy rate to be reduced in the month of December. Many experts even say that it is difficult to cut interest rates even in the last meeting of the current financial year i.e. February 2025. In such a situation, common people may have to wait a little longer for their loan EMI to be reduced.