The world's biggest rating agency has expressed its two predictions regarding India. First, what can be the pace of India's economy. The second estimate is regarding the loan EMI of the common people, which may disappoint the people of India a bit. However, Moody's remains very keen on India's economy. Also, Moody's has been describing India's economy as better for the last few years. It also sees the country's GDP as the new engine of the global economy. Let us also tell you what has been said this time regarding the country's economy and loan EMI?
The rating agency said in its report that the Indian economy is in good shape and is expected to grow at the rate of 7.2 percent in the calendar year 2024 and 6.6 percent next year. Moody's said that the Indian economy is moving forward with solid growth and moderate inflation. The rating agency said in its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26 that the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in recovering from supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, energy and food crises following the Russia-Ukraine war, high inflation and the resulting tight monetary policy. .
According to the report, most of the G-20 economies will register stable growth and will be supported by softness on the policy front and favorable commodity prices. The rating agency said that global economic challenges may increase due to post-election changes in US domestic and international policies. Regarding India, Moody's said that the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.7 percent on an annual basis in the second quarter (April-June) of 2024 due to improvement in domestic consumption, strong investment and strong manufacturing activities.
It further said that high frequency indicators such as expansion of manufacturing and services PMIs, strong credit growth and consumer confidence, indicate stable economic momentum in the third quarter. Moody's said that in fact, from a macroeconomic perspective, the Indian economy is in good shape with solid growth and moderate inflation. We have projected a growth of 7.2 percent in gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024. After this, the economic growth rate may be 6.6 percent in 2025 and 6.5 percent in 2026.
The rating agency also added that considering the risks of inflation, it is possible that the Reserve Bank of India may maintain a relatively tight monetary policy this year. In such a situation, there will be little scope for reduction in interest rates in the near future. Moody's said that despite the near-term uptick, retail inflation should remain within the Reserve Bank's target range in the coming months, as food prices will decline due to higher sowing and adequate food grain stocks. Due to the sharp rise in vegetable prices, retail inflation has reached a 14-month high of 6.21, which is more than the upper end of the Reserve Bank's satisfactory level.
