If the BJP loses the election in this eastern state, it can blame its strident, negative and polarising campaign. Fear-mongering about Bangladeshi infiltrators, allegations of corruption against Hemant Soren and the PM’s dog whistles about roti–beti–maati may have backfired, with tribals infuriated and the majority of non-tribals less than enthused.
Extensive ‘raids’ by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in Jharkhand just ahead of the first phase of polling on 13 November were linked, absurdly, to Bangladeshi infiltration. Unattributed sources ‘confirmed’ evidence of infiltrators and brokers engaged in human trafficking. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) took these in its stride and turned the tables on the BJP by asking Union home minister Amit Shah: whose job was it anyway to prevent infiltration (if any)?
If the JMM-led coalition wins, thanks are due to chief minister Hemant Soren and his wife Kalpana Soren, now an MLA. The duo did the heavy lifting, campaigning extensively across the state, not just for JMM candidates but also for its allies, the Congress, RJD and the CPI(ML). Despite having bussed-in public from afar, BJP leaders, including PM Modi, drew smaller crowds than the Sorens whose addresses in rural areas were well-attended by those who came of their own volition.
After the first phase of polling, it has also become clearer that the JMM-led government’s welfare schemes worked in ways that mattered. None of them targeted any particular segment, benefiting all communities and castes. Women belonging to ‘general castes’ (as opposed to tribals and Dalits) also received their instalment of the Maiya Samman Yojana. The old age pension went to everyone above the age of 50 — and not 60 as in other states. Expansion of the state government’s green ration card benefitted all sections. Everyone eligible, it is claimed, could now look forward to housing.
The Sorens did not pull their punches, listing the BJP’s outrageous ‘honour-roll’: felicitating Bilkis Bano’s rapists after their release from prison in Gujarat, granting parole to rape-accused Baba Ram Rahim in Haryana as well as BJP ministers, MLAs and MPs in Uttar Pradesh who are also charged with rape and molestation. “These are the people who are giving us lectures on beti bachao (save your daughters)!” said chief minister Hemant Soren at meeting after meeting. The BJP’s campaign planks were effectively riddled with holes.
Hemant Soren is also credited by most independent observers for transforming the JMM into a more inclusive political party, no longer a militant, pro-Adivasi party only. The chief minister’s aides, bureaucrats, MLAs and candidates come from all sections and, by consistently speaking of ‘Jharkhandi’ identity, Soren has been able to bind them.
Raising awareness about the state’s rich mineral deposits and natural resources, exploitation by crony capitalists and discrimination by PM Modi’s government at the Centre are all strong reasons for the Jharkhandis to refuse a BJP government.
The ‘X’ factor
Kalpana Soren has emerged as the ‘X’ factor in the state. With her confidence, clarity of thought and ability to marshal facts, many consider her a better public speaker than her husband. Stepping into the public eye in January 2024 when Hemant Soren was arrested by the ED in a frivolous case, her political career is barely 10-months old.
She won a by-election, became an MLA and is seen as the prime motivator behind the popular Maiya Samman Yojana. Social media chatter describes her as ‘chief ministerial material’. With the ED case still hovering over her husband like the sword of Damocles, she is believed to be ready to step into his shoes. Her acceptability has been evidenced by coalition candidates requesting her to campaign for them.
Born in Odisha, Kalpana Murmu Soren can speak Odiya, is familiar with several tribal dialects and has carved out a constituency among women. Reports of a higher turnout of women voters during the first phase can be attributed to both her charisma and the cash-transfer scheme. An MBA from Symbiosis in Pune, with a BTech degree from Biju Patnaik University, she has a corporate background, having worked in several private sector firms.
Repeatedly questioned on why she was preferred to others in the JMM, she has been blunt in replying to the BJP’s charges of parivarwad (dynastic politics). The BJP has no right to level a charge they themselves are guilty of, she tells interviewers, before rattling off the many sons, wives and daughters-in-law of BJP leaders fielded by the party. In politics as in other fields, she adds, everyone is judged on merit. If people find her acceptable and support her, should she step back merely because of a familial connection?
She has also surprised everyone by her feisty responses to barbs from PM Modi, Amit Shah, Himanta Biswa Sarma and J.P. Nadda. She reminds her people they should not forget that the BJP’s only interest is to exploit the state’s bounty by handing it over, lock, stock and barrel (i.e. mines, forests and all) to its industrialist and capitalist friends.
When will the Union government and PSUs under it release the arrears of royalty due on minerals extracted, she asks. Never forget that Rs 1.36 lakh crore is still due to us, she reminds Jharkhandis. Money talks each time the whirring helicopters hover above us, ferrying BJP leaders from rally to rally. Our money? She asks, and is not deterred when no answers come.
Call it determination or desperation, the BJP’s anxiety to win the election is showing. If it loses, it will not be because of any lack of time or effort (or money). Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose to drive 130 km by road from Ranchi to Jamshedpur to address an election rally when rains ruled out a helicopter ride.
Himanta Biswa Sarma has been ‘clever as ever’ by poaching Champai Soren from the JMM and Geeta Koda from the Congress. But the Sorens did one better (and nobler) by refusing to badmouth the defectors, referring to even Champai Soren with respect.
Instead, they have preferred to ask the BJP to explain where it stands on a number of issues: the demand for a Sarna code (which non-Christian Adivasis who are not Hindus follow), the land acquisition and forest rights act, tenancy and domicile policies. Omissions and commissions that remain — for a party that ruled for 13 of the 24 years since the state was formed — unjustified.
The dark horse
If there is a dark horse in the Jharkhand assembly polls, it is the JLKM (Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha), a two-year-old party founded by 30-year-old Jairam Mahato.
Popularly known as ‘Tiger Mahato’, the PhD scholar (who is pursuing a doctorate in English) has fired the imagination of the youth by asking tough questions, holding mainstream parties accountable for not doing enough, and spotlighting rampant inequalities faced by people in their daily lives. JLKM’s performance will be keenly watched as Mahato promises substantive change with the fire and fervour of an angry young man troubled by injustice.
