The battle for Maharashtra hinges on a crucial question: can welfare schemes override public discontent? Sharad Pawar believes the last-mile appeasement of voters will not be quite enough for the Mahayuti to win another term. In conversation with Amey Tirodkar for Frontline magazine, the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) chief parses the state’s political mood. He sees many undercurrents in this election—for one, the fading of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aura post Lok Sabha 2024, and the persistent yet shape-shifting Maratha reservation issue, for another.

Few can claim to know the state better than this redoubtable veteran, who accurately predicted how the Lok Sabha poll would play out in Maharashtra—and is now saying that despite schemes like Ladki Bahin, the deeper issues of farmer distress, unemployment and “unprecedented misuse of the government machinery against opposition leaders”, including raids on his own family members, will find expression in the electoral outcome.

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How do you see the assembly election campaign evolving?

In the Lok Sabha election, Narendra Modi was aiming for an absolute majority. The issue of amendments to the Constitution harmed him. The weaker sections especially rejected the idea in totality. Secondly, Modi’s approach towards minorities created a different tactic.

After the election, Modi had no choice but to depend on Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu to win an absolute majority in the house. That was an indication that people were unhappy with Modi and his policies. Maharashtra too saw the opposition winning a higher number of seats. The [Assembly] election is taking place against this backdrop.

Do you see the Lok Sabha trend continuing even today?

I can’t say now. After that election, the government used all its machinery extensively and took several populist decisions such as the Ladki Bahin scheme, trying to change the atmosphere by giving money. It might have some effect. But I have a different story to tell.

Recently, while travelling, I saw some 15 to 20 women working in the fields. I stopped the car and spoke to them. I asked them what they thought about the Ladki Bahin scheme. Had they received the money? Were they happy about it? All the women said they did get the money, but added that the government gave money with one hand and took it away with the other. [The problem], they explained, is inflation. So that’s the general sentiment. Farmers and unemployed youth are also being given money. The government is targeting different sections differently. 

Will the impact of these schemes be decisively in favour of the Mahayuti or does the opposition still have a fighting chance?  

My observation is that the schemes have [had] some impact, but the public wants a change in government. And if that feeling continues, we will get a clear majority. Secondly, our combination of the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray and NCP (SP) is working well everywhere except in a few constituencies. 

The Maha Vikas Aghadi’s choice of chief minister is an issue being hotly talked about… 

 We have decided not to finalise a single name. After the election, if we get the majority, the party that gets the highest [number of] seats among our partners will decide. 

What is your opinion on Manoj Jarange Patil, the Maratha quota reservation activist, deciding not to contest?

Patil has taken a sensible decision. His not contesting the election will definitely benefit the opposition. Also, I have recently seen that along with his demand for Maratha reservation, he also issued a statement in support of Muslim and Dhangar reservations. That means he has expanded his horizon and spread his base. This has helped to create a feeling that he is not against OBCs. 

Does that mean that a non-Maratha consolidation is not happening on the ground?

Yes. That’s what it looks like.

This was an important part of the BJP’s strategy in Haryana. There, they were able to consolidate non-Jats against Jats. Do you think this is not happening in Maharashtra?

I have been to Haryana. There were too many candidates from the Congress and several independent candidates and rebels as well. Initially, we thought the same could happen here in Maharashtra. But most of them have withdrawn.

Do you believe smaller parties such as the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) would dent the MVA?

VBA’s situation five years ago was different and they are not likely to have that much of an impact

Do you see agencies such as the ED and CBI being used against the MVA even today?

 The statement from Chhagan Bhujbal [Bhujbal said he had to leave Sharad Pawar’s party because of ED cases] has proven it. We all saw it. Money and agencies are being used against us. I can give you an example. My daughter Supriya Sule is an MP for the fourth term. Whenever she attacks the government, her husband gets an income tax notice. My brother’s daughters have faced raids. The Central government has misused the agencies even against my family.

This is an election where we are seeing the absolute misuse of power and government agencies, something we have not ever seen in past elections.

How do you see central government policies when it comes to cotton and soyabean farmers?

Cotton and soyabean farmers are facing serious issues. Prices have dropped. The cost of cultivation has not recovered. That’s why these farmers are extremely unhappy. It is not correct when the government says that the distribution of money has satisfied the farmers.

In the case of sugarcane, there is a demand from the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories regarding minimum support price, [as well as] about ethanol. [Those demands] are not being fulfilled. That means even this assured-income crop is facing the same problem. By and large, be it cotton or soyabean or sugarcane, the farmers are facing trouble.   

How do you see the ‘vote jihad’ issue raised by BJP leaders during the campaign?

It proves the absolutely communal approach of the ruling party. In the last election, there were four to five BJP leaders who talked about changing the Constitution. This exposes the real approach of the government. It also shows that they have nothing else to show in terms of achievement. This communal approach is the only thing they are banking on now.  

While talking to Frontline during the Lok Sabha campaign, you had predicted the exact figures for Maharashtra. What would you like to say now about the Assembly results? 

I have just started the campaign. I am trying to reach as many places as possible. I can’t predict the seats as of now. I am sure people want change. But I am focusing more on campaigns and reaching people across the state. 

(This interview originally appeared in Frontline)