The campaign for the assembly elections in Maharashtra ended on Monday evening and now it is the turn of voting. Voting is taking place on Wednesday in a single phase for all 288 assembly seats in the state, in which the fate of 4136 candidates is at stake. While the BJP-led NDA alliance (Mahayuti) is trying to achieve a hat-trick of power, the Congress-led India alliance seems desperate to make its comeback. From Prakash Ambedkar's VBS to Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM, many small parties are trying to become kingmakers.
The political mood of Maharashtra is not completely uniform this time, at some places Mahayuti has the upper hand and at some places Maha Vikas Aghadi is likely to get an edge. This time, due to the way the seat-wise fight seems to be taking place, the role of small parties and independent candidates is going to be important. This time a total of 158 parties are trying their luck. While BJP is contesting the elections with Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP, Congress is contesting the elections with Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar's NCP(S).
No party has fielded its candidates on all 288 seats in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. BJP is trying its luck on 149 seats, while Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena is trying on 81 seats and Ajit Pawar's NCP is trying on 59 seats. Similarly, Congress candidates are contesting on 101 assembly seats, while Sharad Pawar's NCP (SP) is contesting on 86 seats and Uddhav Thackeray's party Shiv Sena (UBT) is contesting on 95 seats. BSP is trying its luck on 237 seats while Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi has fielded candidates on 200 seats.
Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena has fielded candidates on 125 seats. Maharashtra Swaraj Party is contesting on 32 seats, Prahar Janshakti Party is contesting on 38 seats and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha is contesting on 93 seats. Asududdin Owaisi's party AIMIM has fielded candidates on a total of 17 seats while Samajwadi Party is trying its luck on 9 seats. Apart from these parties, about 2,086 independent candidates are also in the fray.
If we look at the results of 2019 assembly elections in Maharashtra, out of 288 seats, BJP had won 105 seats and Shiv Sena had won 56 seats. At the same time, NCP won 54 seats and Congress won 44 seats. Apart from this, about 29 seats were won by others, out of which 16 seats were won by small parties while independent MLAs were elected on 13 seats. BJP-Shiv Sena together had won 161 seats while Congress-NCP had succeeded in winning 98 seats.
NDA had won more seats than majority, but relations between Shivsena and BJP had deteriorated regarding the post of CM. Uddhav Thackeray broke ties with BJP and formed the government with Congress and NCP. After two and a half years, there was a rebellion in Shivsena. Eknath Shinde left Uddhav along with 38 MLAs and formed the government with BJP. After this, there was a rebellion in NCP in 2023 and Ajit Pawar joined the government along with 40 MLAs.
In the Maharashtra Assembly elections, there is once again a contest between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led India Alliance (Mahayuti vs Mahavikas Aghadi). The 2024 Lok Sabha elections were fought on the pattern of this alliance, Mahavikas Aghadi had an upper hand over the ruling Mahayuti. Maha Vikas Aghadi had won 31 seats while Mahayuti had to be content with 17 seats.
Based on the results of Lok Sabha elections, Mahavikas Aghadi was leading on about 160 seats while Mahayuti was leading on 128 seats. There was a difference of only 0.7 percent in the votes received by Mahayuti and Mahavikas Aghadi. In such a situation, a vote swing of 2 to 3 percent can make or break the game of any alliance. Congress was strong in Vidarbha and BJP in North Maharashtra. Similarly, the Congress-Uddhav-Sharad Pawar duo was a hit in Western Maharashtra and Marathwada, while the dominance of Shinde-BJP was visible in Konkan. There was an equal fight between both the alliances on the Mumbai seats.
The path to Maharashtra Assembly elections is not easy for anyone. This time in the assembly elections, there was no single issue through which all the assembly seats in the entire state could be affected. Because of this, there is a situation of doubt and confusion regarding the slogans also. BJP tried to set the narrative with the slogans 'Batenge to Katenge' and 'Ek hain to safe hain', but a consensus could not be reached even within the NDA camp itself. Not only Ajit Pawar, many BJP leaders also said that they would reject this slogan.
The nature of the electoral battle this time has also changed in the sense that there has been a multi-cornered contest in every assembly constituency, two from Shiv Sena and two from NCP as well as authorized candidates from Congress and BJP are on the fixed seats. Rebel candidates of these parties are also making the election contest difficult at many places. In such a situation, who is going to make a dent in whose votes from which side? There is confusion in every camp regarding this, to resolve which every possible trick is being used.
Out of total 288 seats in Maharashtra, about one fourth assembly seats can prove to be the turning point for power. In the last elections, the difference between victory and defeat on 73 assembly seats was less than ten thousand votes. In such a situation, if some votes are shifted here and there on these 72 seats, the whole game can go wrong, due to which these seats are scaring some people and giving hope to others. On five seats the margin of victory and defeat was less than one thousand votes, while on four seats the margin of victory and defeat was between one thousand to 2 thousand votes. The difference between victory and defeat on 28 seats was between 2 thousand and 5 thousand. There were 36 seats where there was a difference of five to 10 thousand votes.
Due to the way the political situation is developing regarding the assembly elections, all political power has rested on 73 seats with low margins in the state. The margin of victory in the last election on these 73 seats was less than 10,000 votes, where manipulation of a few votes would change the game of power. If we look at the results of the last elections, out of 73 seats with low margins, BJP is in control of 28 seats. NCP won 15 seats, Congress won 12 seats and Shiv Sena won 5 seats. Apart from this, 13 seats were won by others and independents.
