Elections 2024: Exit polls in India are facing something of a credibility crisis after getting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and Haryana assembly poll predictions terribly wrong. With Maharashtra and Jharkhand voting Wednesday, all eyes are on the exit polls in the evening to see if they get it right this time. The final verdict will be out on Saturday, November 23.
In 2019, the exit polls were largely right in predicting the outcome of the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections, even if not entirely accurate with respect to the final seat tallies.
Maharashtra is currently led by the Mahayuti, a coalition comprising the BJP and breakaway factions of the Shiv Sena (led by CM Eknath Shinde) and the Nationalist Congress Party (led by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar). The state has 288 assembly constituencies.
In Jharkhand, power is held by an alliance of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The state assembly has 81 seats.
The ongoing election in Maharashtra is taking place in a vastly different political landscape than in 2019. The Shiv Sena and the NCP were then united, and while the former contested the election with the BJP, the latter fought as a Congress ally. The Shiv Sena eventually parted ways with the BJP and joined hands with its arch-rival Congress, a factor blamed for the party’s 2022 split. The NCP split in 2023 as Ajit Pawar parted ways with his uncle Sharad Pawar.
In 2019, the ABP News Exit Poll predicted that the BJP-led NDA would bag 210 of the state’s 288 seats, while the Congress-led UPA was given a tally of 63.
According to India Today, a ‘poll of polls’ result based on six exit polls predicted a score of 213 for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, and 61 for the Congress-NCP.
The final result saw the BJP get 105 seats, making it the single-largest player in the state. The Shiv Sena got 56 seats, bringing the then NDA’s total to 161, well above the majority mark. The Congress won 44 seats, and the NCP, 54, for a total of 98.
The ABP-CVoter exit poll predicted a tally of 32 for the BJP, and 35 for the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance in the81-seat assembly. The Times of India reported that a ‘poll of polls’ based on three exit surveys predicted 41 seats for the Congress-JMM-RJD combine and 29 for the BJP.
When the final results came in, the JMM ended up winning 30 seats, the Congress, 16, and the RJD, 1. The BJP won 25 seats.
Stay tuned to ABPLive to find out what the pollsters are predicting for the 2024 Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections.
