Russia-Ukraine conflict: After three years of fighting, everyone is wondering when the crisis between Russia and Ukraine would end. Regretfully, the solution is still unknown. The conflict keeps getting worse in spite of diplomatic attempts and economic sanctions, killing both sides horribly and having far-reaching effects on the whole world.
Ukraine claims that Russia’s 2008 and 2014 annexations of Georgia and Crimea planted the roots for the war. Ukraine moved closer to the Western bloc and demanded membership in the European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization as a result of Russia’s escalating hostility.
Crimea was taken over by Russian soldiers in March 2014. Putin used the necessity to protect the rights of Russian speakers and people in Crimea and southeast Ukraine as justification for this action. The peninsula was legally seized by Russia when Crimeans chose to join it in a local referendum.
One of the main points of conflict between Putin and the West was Ukraine’s quest to join NATO. Russia referred to Ukraine’s demand as a “security threat” and threatened to attack Kyiv if it persisted, while the West supported Ukraine, citing it as its “sovereign right.”
Citing the growing military buildup along the Russia-Ukraine border, the United States warned of Russia’s intentions to attack Ukraine in late February 2022. On February 20, 2022, Al Jazeera reported that Russia has made the decision to prolong military drills in Belarus. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken voiced increased worries about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine as a result of this action.
Russia began launching a military operation in Ukraine on the evening of February 23 and 24, 2022. Putin announced the beginning of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which would include air, sea, and land strikes on Ukrainian towns and military installations throughout the country. Putin defended his “special military operation” by saying it was necessary to “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine,” which he said was committing genocide against the Russian-speaking people in the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The mobilization of reservists was one of the defense and security actions announced by Ukrainian authorities after the invasion, along with the declaration of a state of emergency throughout the country.
Key events in the February 2024 Russia-Ukraine war: On February 8, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Valerii Zaluzhnyi, his senior general, in a significant reorganization of the Ukrainian military. “A decision was made today to change the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” said Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov in a Facebook post. The nature of war changes. War alters and necessitates adjustments.
August: The biggest foreign invasion on Russia since World War II is said to have occurred when Ukrainian soldiers unexpectedly invaded the Kursk area of Russia along the border in early August. According to Russia Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, around 5:30 am on August 6, up to 1000 Ukrainian military troops launched an operation to seize a portion of the Sudzhansky district in the Kursk area.
In July, PM Modi traveled to Russia for the 22nd Russia-India summit, his first bilateral trip since taking office for the third time. In recognition of his efforts to strengthen India-Russia relations, PM Modi was also given “The Order of St. Andrew the Apostle,” Russia’s highest national honor. According to the Russian Embassy in India, Putin and PM Modi continue to communicate frequently, speaking over the phone once every two months. Additionally, the two leaders meet face-to-face.
At President Zelenskyy’s request, Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to Ukraine on August 23. Since the two nations’ diplomatic ties were established in 1992, this was the first time an Indian prime minister has ever visited Ukraine. PM Modi reaffirmed during his conversation with Zelenskyy the need of genuine and useful involvement from all parties involved in order to create creative ideas that would aid in the early restoration of peace. He reaffirmed India’s commitment to do all within its power to help bring about an early restoration to peace.
PM Modi returned to Kazan, Russia, on a two-day visit in October to attend the BRICS Summit. India has always emphasized that diplomacy and communication, not combat, are the only ways to resolve the protracted dispute.
September: Russia began a counterattack in the Kursk border area, according to a CNN report on September 12. Zelenskyy said during a news conference, “The Russians have started counteroffensive actions.” The Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement that Russian soldiers had “penetrated” into the Kursk area and taken control of ten villages.
November: The Pentagon press secretary said that if the 10,000 North Korean forces engage battle, they are “legitimate targets” for Ukrainian troops. The United States verified their presence in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on November 4. According to authorities, there are between 11,000 and 12,000 North Korean forces in Russia, said Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder.
According to reports, North Korean soldiers entered Russia in October and received training from Russian forces in trench-clearing, artillery tactics, infantry tactics, and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles. Additionally, the nation supplied Russian uniforms and weaponry to the North Korean forces.
In November, US President Joe Biden also gave Ukraine permission to fire long-range missiles to strike Russia’s deepest regions. Biden made the decision after Donald Trump, who is scheduled to take office in January 2025, won the US presidential election on November 5. Additionally, Biden’s move was a reaction to Russia’s decision to include North Korean forces in the conflict against Ukraine.
One thousand days have elapsed since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on November 19. Speakers in the UN Security Council debated the best ways to bring about peace in Ukraine as they marked the 1000-day mark. Additionally, the UN called on the world community to keep supporting Ukraine.
Statistics on the effects of the conflict on the Ukrainian population were also supplied by the UN.
More than 39,000 civilians have been killed or maimed, more than 3,400 schools and hospitals have been damaged or destroyed, and 10 million people have left their homes, according to UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine Matthias Schmale.
Additionally, Schmale said that two million houses have been devastated, over 2,000 assaults on healthcare institutions have occurred since February 2024, and 65% of Ukraine’s own energy production capability has been destroyed.
Since February 24, 2022, OHCHR confirmed that at least 26,919 people have been wounded and at least 12,162 civilians, including 659 children, have been killed.
According to Amy Pope, Director General of the United Nations migration agency IOM, more than 14.6 million Ukrainians, including 3.5 million internally displaced people, are in urgent need of humanitarian relief as a result of the 1,000 days of conflict.
The European Union claims that since February 2022, 38 double-tap attacks have occurred at locations where Ukrainian State Emergency Service first responders have performed their duty, leaving 110 people injured and 34 rescue personnel dead.
According to the European Union, food insecurity in Ukraine is predicted to affect 5 million people in 2025, compared to 11.1 million in 2023 and 7.3 million in 2024. However, with the cold winter coming and circumstances deteriorating in frontline areas, the humanitarian situation on the ground is still dire.
According to UN estimates, 14.6 million Ukrainians, or over 40% of the population, would need humanitarian aid in 2024. Millions of Ukrainians will still need on humanitarian assistance in 2025. The demands span all areas and include things like health care, housing, emotional assistance, and access to water and sanitation.
According to experts, assaults on the nation’s energy facilities this year have caused the loss of almost 9 gigawatts of production capacity, which is half of what Ukraine needs to survive the winter.
Global political events’ impact on the war between Russia and Ukraine
As the incoming US president, Donald Trump: Donald Trump, the US president-elect, has been a vocal opponent of US military assistance to Ukraine. He also made fun of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the campaign by referring to him as the “best salesman.” He has even promised to put an end to the conflict within a few days of becoming office.
Many anticipate that Donald Trump’s win would result in a restart of high-level discussions between Washington and Moscow, a decrease in US help for Ukraine, and discord within NATO, according to a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace report.
But this does not mean that the Kremlin has won. According to the Carnegie Endowment, “the issue is that no Western leader—including Trump—has a plan for ending the war that would be remotely acceptable to Putin.” Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said after Trump’s victory that Russian authorities would be carefully monitoring the president-elect’s behavior.
International organizations’ response: NATO has strongly denounced Russia’s “brutal and unprovoked war of aggression” on Ukraine, a close NATO ally and an independent, peaceful, and democratic nation.
Additionally, the EU and its member states strongly denounce Russia’s military actions and stand together in support of Ukraine and its people. In its most recent move against Ukraine, the European Union enacted the 15th round of sanctions on Russia on December 16 in an effort to erode Russia’s industrial and military capabilities. Additionally, 54 people and 30 organizations were sanctioned by the EU for activities that threatened or undermined Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute focused on globalization issues, 41 nations—including EU members, other G7 members, Australia, South Korea, Turkiye, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan, India, and Iceland—have given Ukraine military, financial, and humanitarian support since the conflict started in February 2022. Ukraine has also received assistance from international organizations such as the United Nations.
In September and October, more promises of EUR70 billion were made to aid Ukraine. This is mostly due to agreements made by European donors to use the proceeds from Russian assets that have been frozen to pay for budgetary assistance.
According to reports, Russia currently holds nearly 18-20 per cent of Ukrainian land, particularly in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Though Ukraine made some gains in the Kursk region, the overall impact remains tilted in Moscow’s favour.
With resources running out, fatigue setting in, and Trump about to take over the White House, a settlement to the conflict seems impending, which has resulted in more desperate and aggressive attacks from both sides.
The way forward in the Russia-Ukraine war remains uncertain and depends on several factors, including military developments, diplomatic efforts, and global political dynamics.
Earlier this month, Putin, while speaking at his annual end-of-the-year news conference, had said that he was ready to discuss the possibility of reaching a compromise in talks with US President-elect Donald Trump on the issue of Ukraine. “I don’t know when I’m going to see him. He isn’t saying anything about it. I haven’t talked to him in more than four years. I am ready for it, of course. Any time,” Al Jazeera quoted Putin as saying.
While a peaceful solution will be the best outcome, it will require compromises from both sides, as well as strong international involvement. Several big powers have put expectations on India to play a role in resolving the conflict, and Prime Minister Modi is one of the few global leaders to have visited both Kyiv and Moscow since the conflict began. It remains to be seen what role India and other big powers play, as Trump — who has vowed to end the war — takes oath, and if any settlement is reached, what conditions will it carry.
